As imports slow, China turns to 'huge' stockpile of frozen beef

China sitting on huge stockpiles of frozen beef as new tariffs bring imports to a halt Sat 18 Jul 2026 at 12:09pm In short: Australian beef exports to China have ground to a halt because of a new 55 per cent tariff. China is understood to have historically high stockpiles of frozen beef. What's next? Analysts say China is already buying beef for next year, with shipments to resume in the coming months. Australian beef exports to China have ground to a halt because of a new 55 per cent tariff that was triggered one month ago. According to Meat and Livestock Australia's (MLA) regional manager for Greater China, Murray Davis, beef prices in China have increased only slightly, because the country has access to "huge quantities" of beef inventory. "There's something like 500,000 tonnes of Brazilian beef already in storage and Australia has sold 200,000 tonnes of beef so far this year [to China], so that can't possibly have all been consumed," he told ABC Landline. "Unknown quantities will be going into what's called China's strategic reserves. "China has been leading the world in making very significant government storage facilities, which are stocked up with grains, oils and animal protein, to ensure their supply chain resilience." Mr Davis said a lot of frozen beef from Australia and Brazil would be "trickled out" through the rest of this year, allowing for consistent supply. He said this month had been a "confusing" time for Australian exporters as they looked to find a new home for about 100,000 tonnes of beef. "Our initial assessment is that the United States, Japan, Korea and the Philippines will absorb most of that volume," he said. But another tariff is looming for Aussie beef, with the 196,000 tonne quota for beef exports to South Korea due to be reached "within the coming weeks", triggering a 24 per cent tariff. Meanwhile Brazil is expected to reach its 1.1 million tonne quota for beef exports to China in the coming weeks, before triggering a 67 per cent tariff. Buying beef for next year Simon Quilty from Global Agritrends said China's inventory of imported frozen beef was at levels similar to those during the COVID pandemic due to "stockpiling of both Brazilian and Australian beef to be drip-fed onto the market for the balance of this year". "During COVID the [beef] stockpile weighed on markets," he said. "But the difference in today's market is that there is no lockdown and consumption remains in much better shape." Mr Quilty said China was already buying for next year and expected shipments of beef from Brazil and Australia to resume in September for next year's inventory. He said HGP-free feeder steers were also being locked in for the market and were "now getting a 50 cent per kilogram premium". Mr Davis agreed that a lot of beef was already getting locked in for next year. "Firstly, those hoping to avoid the 55 per cent tariff, but got caught out, a lot of those traders are putting product into bonded warehouses in China with a plan to leave them there, not pay the duty, and then clear them from customs in January 1 next year and hope that the Chinese let them get away with zero tariff," he explained. "A second category is to actually store inventory in Australia. "So Chinese traders or customers are purchasing large quantities of beef, but leaving it in storage in Australia. "The plan would be to put them on the boats in the middle of December to have them arrive in early January and clear them through customs then." He said the consequence of shipments resuming in the coming months is that Australia "may hit its beef quota to China even earlier next year". "This year we sort of limped through to middle of June before we hit the quota," he said. "Next year we might find it's even earlier, [in] April, May, who knows, February. I hope not." Chinese beef on the menu China's decision to introduce beef quotas on several nations including Australia and Brazil was to help protect the nation's cattle industry. Mr Davis, who is based in Shanghai, said there were signs the policy was working. "If you walk through any supermarket in China now, it's noticeable that there's a lot more domestic beef there. "It's taking shelf space in the supermarkets that until very recently would have been home to Australian product or US product. "There's still going to be a market for Australian beef, but [this policy] is definitely going to cause a rebalancing in favour of domestically-produced beef." Mr Davis said for the rest of 2026 he expected some companies would export chilled Australian beef to China despite the 55 per cent tariff. "They'll come to some commercial arrangement to share the pain of that 55 per cent tariff, between exporters, traders, importers, distributors and some passed onto the end customers," he said. 'We're certainly hopeful that trade will continue, and my understanding is a lot of them have reached agreements to do it, we just have to see how it plays out of the next six months."