Gold price prediction today: Will gold prices stay range-bound? Check July 28 outlook

In the near-term, upside in gold is likely to be capped as the FOMC's monetary policy decision looms. Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are rising but are still not out of the woods, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.Gold Performance: Spot gold traded with an upward traction on Monday as a sharp decline in oil prices alleviated rate hike concerns to an extent. However, the metal trimmed its gains from its intra-day high of $4116 as oil prices rebounded slightly from day's low on Saudi Arabia reporting drone attacks by Iran militia from Iraq. At the time of writing this article, spot gold was trading with a gain of 0.20% at $4065. Earlier, in the week ending July 24, the yellow metal closed with a weekly gain of 0.90% at $4054. Data roundup: US durable goods order data released Monday came in at 0.3% Vs the estimate of 1.8% (prior -4%), though core durable capital goods orders increased 0.9% last month after an upwardly revised 1.9% gain in May. Dallas Fed manufacturing activity in July was noted at 1.3 Vs the estimate of 2. Germany's business climate at 86.6 in July rose for the third straight month and beat the estimate of 86 (prior 85.7) as the German economy shows signs of stabilization. Trade and tariffs: The Trump Administration, citing the issue of forced labour, has imposed tariffs of 10-12.5% on 60 trading partners, including EU and China, under section 301 of the Trade Act 1974 as temporary 10% global tariffs expired. Additional tariffs are possible on excess capacity. Dollar Index and yields: The US Dollar Index gained 0.70% to close at 101.46 in the week ending July 24. At the time of writing this article on Monday, the Index was trading largely flat. Two-year US yields were steady at 4.32%, while ten-year yields were down 2 bps to 4.65%. Last week, two-year yields rose to 4.36% -- highest since February 2025-- before retreating slightly with oil on Friday to close at 4.32%, up 3.83% for the week. Similarly, 10-year yields rose to 4.71%-- highest since January 2025—and settled with a weekly gain of 3% at 4.67% Friday. Fed rate hike possibility: Overnight implied rates reflect the Federal Reserve hiking rates 1.09 times by September, while the next hike could come as soon as March 2027. Probabilities of the US Fed hiking rates in September, October and December stand at 81%, 86% and 91%, respectively. CFTC positioning: Money managers increased their bullish gold bets by 4,439 net-long positions to 123,586 in the week ending July 21, according to weekly CFTC data. The net-long position was the most bullish in about six months as long-only positions rose 4,450 lots to 141,060- the highest in about six months. Short-only positions rose 11 lots to 17,474 Geopolitics and oil: Oil prices tumbled on Monday following a pause in strikes after the U.S. carried out 13 consecutive nights of attacks on Iran. The pullback in oil prices came after the U.S. carried out no strikes on Iran for the third night in a row as President Donald Trump gives some space for peace talks. Over the weekend, Yemen's Houthi militants fired missiles and drones at Saudi energy infrastructure. State media then reported that Saudi Arabia retaliated by targeting sites controlled by the rebel group in Yemen. The Houthis claimed on Monday they targeted Saudi Arabia oil facilities with drones, though did not specify when the attack took place. Ukrainian attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea over the weekend has drawn Iran’s ire. At the time of writing Brent crude oil at $90 was down over 6% for the day. Net decline since Thursday's high is $11. Brent oil futures surged nearly 9% last week. ETF and COMEX inventory: Total known global ETF holdings rose for the third straight day to reach 96.65 Moz on July 24; however, ETFs have seen a net outflow of 2.27 MOz (2.3%) YTD, while outflow since the start of the Iran war on February 28 stands at 4.25 Moz (4.23%). Central Bank watch: As expected, the European Central Bank kept the benchmark rate unchanged on July 23, though the Bank is expected to hike rates in September. The US Federal Reserve will conclude its FOMC monetary policy meeting on July 29. The decision and assessment are expected to be hawkish, though no rate change is expected. The Bank of England will deliver its monetary policy on July 30. Upcoming data: Major US data on tap this week include Conference Board Consumer Confidence (July 28), real personal spending, Q2 advance GDP and Fed's favourite inflation gauge PCE Price Index (all on July 30). Traders will monitor Eurozone's and Germany's Q2 GDP (July 30), too. Gold Price Outlook: Spot gold continues to react to wild gyrations in oil prices, though sensitivity of its movements with respect to shift in rate hike probability is somewhat dampened now, which could be due to US tariff stoking economic concerns and the fact that gold has managed to stay above $4000 that encourages dip buying. Gold posting a weekly gain last week despite higher oil prices, a firmer Dollar Index and higher yields is a positive development for the development. However, the yellow metal is still not out of the woods as oil prices can be highly unpredictable in the short term due to the deluge of Iran-related news. In the near-term, upside in gold is likely to be capped as the FOMC's monetary policy decision looms. Markets expect the Fed to be quite hawkish as the Fed Chair Warsh continues to lay stress on price stability as the core objective of the Central Bank. Overall, gold is expected to keep its familiar range of $3950-$4000,which has been in place for the last one month. Interim support is at $4040/$4000/$3950. Resistance is seen at $4115/$4170/$4215. (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.) The TOI Business Desk is a vigilant and dedicated team of journalists committed to delivering the latest and most relevant business news from around the world to readers of The Times of India. The primary focus of the TOI Business Desk is to keep a watchful eye on the global business landscape, covering a wide spectrum of industries, markets, economic trends, in-depth analysis, exclusive reports and breaking stories that impact businesses and economies. 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