As France burns, the far right sees an opening

PARIS — Out-of-control wildfires fueled by extreme heat and drought might seem unlikely electoral fodder for France’s far right.

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has spent years opposing green regulations. Yet the party is seizing on the country’s worst blazes in years to argue that President Emmanuel Macron’s government is failing in one of its most basic duties: protecting people and their homes.

Edwige Diaz, a National Rally MP and close Le Pen ally from the fire-hit Gironde region, says the blazes are the latest in a series of crises — from extreme weather to concerns over crime and child safety — that expose the government’s broader inability to protect the public.

“All the proposals that we have been putting forward for years with Marine and Jordan [Bardella] … today we realize that those are the only ones that could have spared us these situations, from protecting us from wildfires to saving our children,” she said. “Current events, alas, prove us right.”

Whether that argument will gain traction remains uncertain. But National Rally may not need voters to see it as an authority on climate change; its opening lies instead in the declining credibility of the parties that have governed France — and a sense among some voters that the state is no longer capable of protecting them. 

Recent research shared with POLITICO — based on four focus groups with former center and center-left voters who appeared unlikely to support those parties again — found repeated references to a country that was falling apart. Participants cited a series of recent crises, including the murder of an 11-year-old girl by a suspect previously known to police, as evidence that the government was failing to act. 

That frustration extends to climate preparedness. In a YouGov poll published this month, 74 percent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with Macron’s climate-adaptation policies.

“The National Rally mechanically benefits from its anti-system positioning whenever there is a news event that gives the impression, right or wrong, that successive governments have not taken effective action to address the difficulties faced by the French people,” said Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos France, a polling firm.

The fires have burned more than 1,000 square kilometers across southwestern France since the start of the summer — an area roughly 10 times the size of Paris — and forced more than 200,000 people from their homes. Coming after an extreme heatwave left the countryside tinder-dry, they have already scorched nearly twice as much land as during the last devastating fire season in 2022. 

Images of the Bordeaux region, home to a large population and many popular vacation spots, engulfed by flames have deepened an already grim mood in the political class and among ordinary citizens alike. Macron made an impromptu visit to the area on Monday to meet with local firefighters and appealed for national unity as his government sought to contain criticism of its response. 

Le Pen herself struck a more restrained tone. In a post on X, she said the images had filled the country with horror, offered support to victims and evacuated families, and praised firefighters and civil-protection forces for their “exceptional self-sacrifice.” She did not directly criticize the government. 

As France has sweltered through record heat, the National Rally has so far paid little political price for its lack of credibility on climate and environmental policy.

Instead, the party has sought to focus attention on adaptation — how the government protects people from the consequences of a warming climate — rather than on measures to reduce emissions. During a heatwave in June, it proposed financial assistance to install air conditioning in homes and public buildings, casting the plan as an immediate response to voters’ concerns about their health and safety.

The proposal drew attention, Gallard said, but he questioned whether the wildfires would offer the National Rally the same political opening. “I’m not sure they will benefit hugely in this case because they have very limited credibility on environmental issues,” he said.

The National Rally struggled to explain how its air-conditioning proposal would be funded. Opponents dismissed it as political window-dressing from a party that has repeatedly opposed measures intended to limit climate change. 

Still, the pitch exposed a vulnerability among mainstream parties. As voters become more concerned about the immediate effects of heat, fires and other extreme weather, the political debate is shifting from long-term climate targets toward whether governments can protect people now.

Left-wing rivals who have long advocated for stronger measures to address climate change counter that the party has been consistently voting against plans meant to address its root causes, both at the EU and national level.

“At some point, everyone will have to answer for their positions before the public and before history,” center-left MEP and presidential hopeful Raphaël Glucksmann posted on Facebook.

“For months and years now, the right and the far right have been engaged in a relentless battle against the European climate agenda,” he added.

National Rally’s Diaz turned that argument on its head, blaming environmental rules themselves for hampering the response. She pointed to EU-mandated anti-pollution rules on firefighting equipment as an example of policies she said were poorly adapted to conditions on the ground.

“Those who claim to be at the forefront of environmental issues have imposed policies that are now responsible for the current situation,” said Diaz. “If there is a party today that can save the environment, it’s ours.”

Alexander Burns contributed reporting to this story.