World Cup 2030 Way-Too-Early Power Rankings: Who is No. 1?

It has been a little over a week since the 2026 World Cup ended, with Spain defeating Argentina 1-0 in a gritty, attritional battle to claim their second title. All of the confetti has been swept up, and all of the real turf in stadiums across the U.S. swiftly ripped up ahead of the 2026 NFL season, which leaves us in a real funk. How are we going to make it four years until the next edition? By doing another Power Rankings, of course. As we did at several points before and during the World Cup -- from 100 days out to after the round of 16 -- we're looking at how our global reporters feel about the tournament from a contenders vs. pretenders perspective. But this time, we're looking to the future, a full World Cup qualifying cycle ahead, to rank the top end of the field in 2030. Our panel of 19 reporters was asked to rank the entire FIFA landscape from No. 1 (meaning the trophy is theirs) to No. 15 (the cool outsider's pick for a tournament shock), with their ballots compiled into the collective ranking below. ESPN FC's World Cup 2030, Way-Too-Early Power Rankings 1. SPAIN - FIFA rank: 1 - World Cup 2026 finish: Champions With 15 of 19 first-place voters, our panel were near unanimous in selecting the 2026 champs as its top choice to dominate four years from now, and it's not hard to see why. Despite a slow start and a 0-0 draw with Cinderella story Cape Verde to open the tournament, La Roja slowly eased through the gears and gave up only one goal in eight games to take the crown. Oh, and they barely needed teen phenom Lamine Yamal to do it: The Barcelona star came into the competition with an injury and had his minutes carefully managed. That's why everyone loves Spain -- they simply have the quality and the depth to always be competitive. Furthermore, they can navigate injuries better than most of their peers given the way every single one of their national teams, from youth level up, plays a similar style into which the players themselves are interchangeable. It showed at the World Cup, too, with Yamal at half-strength. Mikel Oyarzabal scored five of Spain's 14 goals, Rodri grabbed the Golden Ball as the tournament's standout player, Unai Simón was named Golden Glove as best goalkeeper, defender Pau Cubarsí took the FIFA Young Player Award (for best under-21 star) and fullbacks Marc Cucurella and Pedro Porro were named to the World Cup's Best XI along with Rodri. That's nearly a clean sweep of all the individual prizes to go with the stylish, measured way they fandangoed to the trophy. No team has repeated as World Cup champions since Brazil in 1958 and 1962, but Spain feel as if they could do it given all of the above. 2. FRANCE - FIFA rank: 3 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by Spain in semifinals Les Bleus were the only other team to receive first-place votes from our panel, and that confidence is tied directly to the sheer star power France can command at every position. The pieces might not always fit perfectly -- as shown by how easily Spain played around them in the semifinals -- but the individual talent is off the charts. We begin obviously with Kylian Mbappé, whose two goals in the third-place game vs. England lifted him to 10 for the tournament -- and the Golden Boot for top scorer -- as well as setting a record for men's World Cup goals, with 22. He is scoring a goal per game at this level, which is almost unheard of, and at 27 years old, he will fancy his chances of another salvo in four years' time should he remain fit and firing. Beyond that, the future is exceedingly bright: Only six of their 26-man squad this summer are 30 or older, and two of those are goalkeepers, a position that does age better than most. Meanwhile, eight players were under 25 at the World Cup, including Michael Olise, who looks set to be one of the best playmakers of his generation, and other elite playmakers such as Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué and Rayan Cherki are also just hitting their stride at this level. Any lingering concerns about France would hinge on their defense, which is a step below the talent at the other end of the field, as well as the change of manager this summer as new head coach Zinedine Zidane prepares to step in following Didier Deschamps' planned exit. Zidane is a cooler prospect on the touchline, but it remains to be seen whether his tactical vision can overcome Deschamps' shortcomings in that department. 3. ENGLAND - FIFA rank: 4 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by Argentina in semifinals As has often been the case in these rankings all summer, the Three Lions are leading that next tranche of teams below the tippy-top. England's issue is always consistency and squad selection given how many directions this team can go, and it all hinges on the manager in charge when it comes to style and tactics. Before the World Cup, Thomas Tuchel was hailed as the keen genius that could unlock England's futility at this competition, a cloud that has hung over generations of great players since they won it all at home in 1966. It looked as if it could come home until it quickly didn't, with their valiant effort to defeat Mexico at the Azteca in the round of 16 replaced by panicked, unnecessary conservatism that cost them dearly against Lionel Messi & Co. in the semis. It mirrored the usual hype/pain cycle for England: early promise replaced by crippling expectations and eventual collapse. We don't yet know if Tuchel will stay on for another cycle, we don't have a sense of viable replacements (English or otherwise), and we don't know which of their players will really be dominant by the time 2030 arrives. Harry Kane is coming off a transcendent club season -- with trophies! -- for Bayern Munich and scored six goals at this World Cup, but he's also 32. Jude Bellingham (seven goals) was exceptional as the attacking-most tip of midfield, but his position is one that doesn't age as well as most given how much work he puts in on both ends of the field. And then there's the general rigor of the English Premier League, where the vast majority of this squad play. Arsenal's stars (Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze) looked exhausted the entire way through given the effort expended to win the Gunners' first league title in two decades. Defensively, the squad lacked enough depth at fullback, the decision to go with function over form -- no room for the likes of Cole Palmer, Phil Foden and Trent Alexander-Arnold -- left them with few creative options when chasing games, but again, it all flows back to whoever is in charge four years from now. This team is always built in the image of its coach and until we see where things net out in that direction, our voters have them third on merit and reputation more than anything else. 4. PORTUGAL - FIFA rank: 7 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by Spain in round of 16 Finally, this team is moving forward from the Cristiano Ronaldo era -- he announced this would be his last World Cup barely 24 hours before they crashed out with a limp 1-0 loss to eventual champs Spain -- and thankfully for Portugal fans, there's still a ton of talent to call upon. Our panel felt as if they have a shot, especially with the next World Cup being co-hosted by Spain and Portugal. Also, 16 of their players in 2026 were 27 or younger, which gives them a fair shot at some quality continuity through the next cycle. But this is a team in need of fresh leaders -- talent was never their issue, but how it had to fit around their established veterans. The Ronaldo cloud is lifting, but this team will need to develop adequate deputies for Bruno Fernandes (32 in September), Bernardo Silva (32 in August), Rúben Dias (29) and João Cancelo (32). That's a lot of institutional memory to replace, though the prodigious midfield duo of João Neves and Vitinha offers plenty of promise. In attack, we're still waiting for Rafael Leão -- who turned 27 in June -- to convert his "next big thing" status into proven returns, and João Félix isn't a kid anymore either. But there is a lot to work with here, and home soil, coupled with a sharper tactical vision, will go a long way. All eyes are on Jorge Jesus, Ronaldo's most recent boss at Al-Hilal, to see if he can get it done. 5. BRAZIL - FIFA rank: 5 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by Norway in round of 16 The Selecao is another team our panelists see firmly in the middle of the pack on talent as much as anything. Never voted higher than fourth but in some ballots coming as low as 12th, much will depend on the galaxy of stars around Vinícius Júnior and whether Carlo Ancelotti has the gumption to do a full four-year cycle with this temperamental team. Brazil are in a similar bucket to Argentina (see below) in that they have been led by the same cast of characters for several World Cups now, and the drop-off will be real from here. Only seven of the 26 players were 26 or younger this summer, and only two of those (Vinícius., Gabriel Martinelli) have made more than 20 national team appearances. This will create plenty of room for experimentation and rotation, and just as much uncertainty. Future mainstays all come with questions: Savinho (22 years old) has arguably flopped since making the move from Girona to Manchester City, with transfer rumors swirling as he looks to do a hard reset on his career. Andrey Santos (22) was just a face in the crowd at Chelsea. Can he develop into a box-to-box midfielder at Manchester United? Estêvão (19) missed the World Cup because of injury, but can he rise up to become a potent foil for Vinícius. around the attacking third? Signs point to yes, provided he returns to full fitness without issue. Brazil teams in the modern era have been defined by amazing attacks and sub-par defenses, and their next iteration promises to be much of the same unless Gabriel (28) and Marquinhos (32) have more life left in their legs. 6. MOROCCO - FIFA rank: 6 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by France in quarterfinals The Atlas Lions rated highly among our panelists all World Cup long, and they remain the top-ranked team from Africa in our estimation, even looking ahead through another qualification cycle. Much of that is to do with their impressive depth: every youth team on the men's side has been successful in recent years, from the U-23s (winners of U-23 Africa Cup of Nations in 2023, bronze medalists at the 2024 Olympics) to the U-20s (U-20 World Cup winners in 2025), and U-17s (winners of U-17 Africa Cup of Nations in 2025, quarterfinalists at 2025 U-17 World Cup). It's hard to find another nation as competitive or consistent. Concerns arise around their lack of goals -- losing Ismael Saibari to injury was insurmountable vs. France -- but the system is working, talent is rising to the senior side (remember the name Ayyoub Bouaddi) and they remain one of the tougher outs at this level. 7. ARGENTINA - FIFA rank: 2 - World Cup 2026 finish: defeated by Spain in final We don't know yet whether Lionel Messi will have enough in the tank for another try -- he turned 39 midway through the group stage -- but also, our panel clearly don't rate the team with or without him when it comes to 2030. Argentina were close to repeating as champs but rode their luck mightily to make the final, needing improbable comebacks and/or late goals in the knockout rounds to defeat Cape Verde (111th minute own goal to win 3-2), Egypt (three goals after the 78th minute after trailing 2-0), Switzerland (two extra-time goals to win 3-1) and England (two goals after the 84th minute after trailing 1-0). That's not a recipe any team can replicate, let alone one likely to be without one of the game's all-time greats in four years' time. Truthfully, they have the talent to cruise through qualifying, but a new generation needs to firmly establish itself without their 5-foot-7 north star of the past two decades. Can Julián Álvarez carry a team on his shoulders like never before? Will Enzo Fernández grow up, shed his red card-worthy aggression and be the reliable midfielder they need him to be? Only seven of their 26-man squad is 26 or younger, which points to a massive regime change in the years ahead. 8. GERMANY - FIFA rank: 12 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by Paraguay in round of 32 Our voters submitted their ballots before the seismic news that Jurgen Klopp -- winner of trophies, hearts and minds at Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund -- would take the helm from Julian Nagelsmann. But given the scale of the task at hand, would it have made much of a difference? Klopp is an inspirational force and the perfect vanguard to bring some gusto back to Die Mannschaft, which has lacked identity and spirit in recent World Cups since winning it all in 2014. But can he adapt his "heavy metal" style to the stop-start rhythm of the international game? At club level, managers see their players daily and can use every session as an opportunity for learning. With the national teams, official FIFA windows are sporadic and much depends on who is fit enough for selection, which can impede progress. He'll also have to find a way to mesh the best of what's around with the next wave of talent, no easy feat given limited time with his team. Joshua Kimmich (31 years old, 110 national team appearances) is on the downward slope of his career, and it won't be easy to replace his leadership and versatility like-for-like. Klopp will relish the adaptability of Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala and Aleksandar Pavlovic as a potential midfield trio, but attack and defense are much more muddled. Up front, Kai Havertz is really their main scoring option, despite not being a classic center forward. At the back, Jonathan Tah (30) and Antonio Rüdiger (33) are showing their age, though the emergence of Nathaniel Brown (23) was one of their few positives from an underwhelming World Cup. Over to you, Jurgen ... 9. NORWAY - FIFA rank: 19 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by England in quarterfinals As goes Erling Haaland, so go Norway. Their first World Cup since the 1990s was a divine one as they Viking Row'd their way up and down North America, finding fans and bonhomie everywhere they went. The goals helped, too, as Haaland (seven) relished the chance to bully defenders not used to his size and speed. Martin Ødegaard was productive in midfield, Oscar Bobb and Antonio Nusa showed glimpses of their potency and with only one player over 31 at this World Cup -- goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland -- there is very much a sense that they can keep the band together for another run at 2030. The big question is, can they ensure qualification? The road to the next World Cup has been made more complicated by UEFA, with a two-tier campaign eliminating a lot of the lopsided games and removing much of the margin for error. Like we said, as goes Haaland, so go Norway. If he can continue his prodigious scoring rate, they should be well positioned to cause havoc in four years. 10. NETHERLANDS - FIFA rank: 9 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by Morocco in round of 32 The Dutch are almost a top-10 choice by default in the minds of our voters, with a huge gap between them and the remainder of our power rankings saying more about their staying power than the credibility of the next tier. Yes, there is talent -- Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen and Brian Brobbey all had notable moments this summer -- but there is also massive transition ahead. Not only are they searching for another manager, with former Liverpool boss Arne Slot linked despite his desire for another club gig, but they will need to replace the inimitable Virgil van Dijk at the heart of their defense during this cycle. A squad with more over-30 stars (seven) than under-25 prospects (six) will have to align a long-term plan with short-term lightning in a bottle, regardless of who picks up the coaching reins, and this turbulence makes them a distant contender among our panel. 11. BELGIUM - FIFA rank: 8 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by Spain in quarterfinals Belgium are always in the mix come World Cup time, and their "Golden Generation" dating to 2014 has two quarterfinal finishes (2014, 2026) and a third-place finish (2018) to show for it. The 2026 edition felt as if it was due to drop off a precipice given the ages of their stars (goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is 34, playmaker Kevin De Bruyne is 35, forward Romelu Lukaku 33), but they did enough to advance from a well-balanced group containing Egypt, Iran and New Zealand. Then, when the weight of the world descended upon them following the Folarin Balogun situation, wherein the U.S. forward's red card was miraculously rescinded amid the unavoidable reality of governmental intervention, they simply showed up, clocked in and beat the co-hosts 4-1. And they did it after a miraculous comeback against Senegal in the round of 32, in which they erased a 2-0 deficit in the final five minutes of regular time and went on to win 3-2. Perfect World Cup, no notes. Even though their next gen hasn't quite formed, they have something in Jérémy Doku, Amadou Onana and Senne Lammens to coalesce around during the next World Cup cycle. And invariably they'll make it to the quarterfinals as they always seem to. 12. ITALY - FIFA rank: 15 - World Cup 2026 finish: did not qualify Behold, a team that didn't make it for 2026 is on our voters' minds for 2030! Very much a victim of their own incompetency when it comes to World Cup qualifying -- Italy missed out on 2018, 2022 and 2026, even though they won the Euros in 2020 -- the Azzurri can't remain on the outside looking in forever, can they? In 2018, they were drawn against Spain in the qualifying group stage and dropped into a playoff, where they lost 1-0 to Sweden over two games and bid farewell to legendary goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon in the process. In 2022, they again faced a win-or-go-home playoff bracket for a spot in the World Cup, only to lose 1-0 to North Macedonia -- despite taking a remarkable 32 shots to their opponents' four -- via a 90th-minute goal. In 2026, they defeated Northern Ireland to set up a winner-take-all vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina ... and they blew it by missing two of three penalties in the shootout after it finished 1-1 in extra time. Our voters don't believe lightning will strike four times in a row for a team that's won four World Cups, most recently in 2006, and they do have the talent to right these wrongs. Defenders Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori and Federico Dimarco still have plenty to offer at this level, the midfield (Nicolò Barella, Sandro Tonali) is pliable and assertive, and a front line of Moise Kean and Mateo Retegui can compete, despite being inconsistent at the highest level. Much will depend on Roberto Mancini -- another coaching retread, after failed attempts to woo Pep Guardiola -- to simplify things, develop a credible bench and keep these players free of the stress they'll feel after missing three World Cups in a row. 13. COLOMBIA - FIFA rank: 11 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by Switzerland in round of 16 Los Cafeteros looked very comfortable at this World Cup, buoyed by a strong spine of veteran experience and enjoying a credible run to the last 16 that ended in an underwhelming penalty shootout defeat. Luis Díaz was a force on the left flank, Daniel Muñoz was a true two-way threat on the right and they got a lot from a midfield trio (Jefferson Lerma, Gustavo Puerta, Jhon Arias) in the fight for field tilt. This side never lets opponents settle into a rhythm, though they fell short at creating a winning tempo of their own. The big concern here is the same one our voters hold: What is this team even going to look like in four years? So much of their squad is the wrong side of the age curve. They were one of only three teams (after Panama and Iran) to have an average squad age above 30, and have only two players in the current squad who should be in their theoretical peak age at the next edition. 14. JAPAN - FIFA rank: 17 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by Brazil in round of 32 The Samurai Blue are well-positioned to cruise into the next World Cup where, if key players are fit, they can expect to make another run. Their average age was middle of the road (27.19, 21st of 48 teams from youngest to oldest) and most of their key players are the right side of the age curve. But it does make you wonder what more they could have done if they'd been able to call upon Wataru Endo, Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino, all of whom bowed out because of injuries before the World Cup. Looking ahead, manager Hajime Moriyasu will be handing the reins to U-23 coach Go Oiwa next summer, with Oiwa set to lead them through 2030. That continuity -- a youth-level manager who has already worked with many of the talent pool -- will be handy considering how well it has worked for Spain, who won it all in 2026 with Luis de la Fuente, a guy who'd previously managed the U-19s, U-21s and Olympic sides before taking the big job. 15. MEXICO - FIFA rank: 10 - World Cup 2026 finish: eliminated by England in round of 16 El Tri hopes weren't especially high coming into this competition, but wily ever-present coach Javier Aguirre turned them into a lean, aggressive counterattacking side that was one of only three (next to finalists Spain and Argentina) to win all of their group games. They grappled beyond Ecuador to set up what would be one of the best games of the tournament, a 3-2 defeat to England at the Azteca in the round of 16 that had everything when it came to drama, quality and absolute art. New boss Rafa Marquez will have a lot to work with, including defender Edson Álvarez, midfielder Roberto Alvarado and winger Julián Quiñones, but the prospect of moving forward without the likes of Raúl Jiménez at the tip of the attack will require some fresh thinking. Editor's note: Our voting panel includes Mark Ogden, Sam Marsden, Leonardo Bertozzi, Alex Kirkland, James Olley, Julien Laurens, Alain van Hilten, Cesar Hernandez, Beth Lindop, Omar Flores, Bill Connelly, Lizzy Becherano, Gab Marcotti, Sam Tighe, Joey Lynch, Tom Hamilton, Jeff Carlisle, Gabriel Tan and James Tyler. Other teams receiving votes: Senegal, Ivory Coast, United States, Switzerland, Uruguay, Ecuador, Türkiye, Croatia, Sweden, Egypt, Nigeria, Australia