'Donald Trump's chaotic Iran war is a disaster for the world and exposes all'

History will not view US President Donald Trump’s war on Iran kindly. This £40 billion folly has damaged World economies for years, made once delicately handled Middle Eastern fault lines increasingly unstable and drawn the west’s enemies ever closer. Under his command the most powerful military the world has ever known has depleted its weapons stocks to dangerously low levels and these control the geopolitical balance of power. Beijing is watching carefully, licking its lips as increasingly the west’s ability to aid Taiwan if China makes its move reduces daily. Terror groups such as Islamic State and al-Qaeda are burgeoning in the neglected ungoverned spaces of the Middle East, central and south Asia and Africa - and all have their eyes on Europe. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are unleashing proxy forces in Yemen to do deals with al-Qaeda groups in Somalia such as al-Shabab. War in Iran has encouraged Tehran to let slip the Shia-Sunni Muslim schism for its Shia proxies to link up with Sunni groups. Previously its friendship of convenience with Sunni Hamas in Gaza was the most obvious Shia-Sunni link-up but now the dogs of terror are being let loose, forming ever-more dangerous alliances. One UK security source told the Mirror: “We are witnessing an escalation, a heightened risk of Islamic State on the rise and it is plotting against Europe. With so many resources going into the Iran crisis and the freezing of the Strait of Hormuz inevitably terror groups will take advantage in places such as Afghanistan, the Middle East and in Africa and the threat level is rising. And on Iran specifically we are seeing a large-scale increase in US munitions and fire-power arrive in the Middle East in preparation for a major increase in tempo. This war could go on well into the long-term and despite the talks that are apparently happening the prognosis for chance of peace any time soon is slim.” It will take years for America to re-arm itself with missile stocks adequate enough to police global stability. Trump’s ill-thought-out war, a conflict with no strategy, is fuelling the conditions for conflict in Europe and the Middle East to converge dangerously as allies take up position alongside belligerents. And after years of defence spending negligence the whole of Europe is frantically arms racing to appease Trump’s demands for NATO members to do more to defend itself. As Commander-in-Chief of the free world this ‘no war’ US President has probably done more to smash a wrecking ball into the delicate balance of global diplomacy than any other western leader since World War II. A snapshot of his misplaced trust in the world’s despots, whom he admires so much, happened when he was asked about China apparently smuggling 400 rocket launchers through Pakistan and into Iran to help its war effort. Trump replied that President Xi has “told me very strongly he wouldn’t partake. And he knows I would be quite disappointed.” Add to that the near certainty that Russian intelligence is feeding the Iranian military with information on US bases in the Middle East and the drawing closer of the West’s enemies is even more chilling. It is entirely possible that at least some of the American military personnel who have died or been wounded were victims of Russian intelligence aid to Tehran - as it is they who have capability to pinpoint base locations, such as the one in Jordan. To date, 18 American service members have been killed and more than 600 wounded in the conflict, according to the Pentagon. The Iranian Health Ministry said more than 3,500 people have been killed in the war. But the question of the US losing the war in Iran goes much deeper than Trump’s naivety as it affects every other conflict, Ukraine because it needs Patriot defence missiles desperately. Among the ground to air defence systems available to the US, the most heavily used was the Patriot, which used to target aircraft, as well as ballistic and cruise missiles. These are particularly valuable in Ukraine as Russian President Vladimir Putin has stepped up attacks on Kyiv with ballistic missiles. Their near vertical trajectory and speed make ballistic weapons difficult to shoot down with anything other than Patriots or similar. Before the ceasefire was settled on April 8 US forces had struck over 13,000 targets across Iran, according to the White House. American air defences intercepted over 1,700 Iranian drones and ballistic missiles over the same period, at great cost to US defensive missile stocks. According to the Washington DC-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) as many as 1,430 were used during the conflict from an estimated pre-war stockpile of about 2,330. Each Patriot interceptor costs approximately £3m. And some were used to shoot down £30,000 drones. Patriots are made at the rate of 650 a-year so it will take at least two years to get back to pre-war levels. Also used was a newer, more sophisticated system known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, which has a longer range and higher intercept altitudes than the older Patriot. Supplies were already limited, with CSIS estimating that between 190 and 290 were fired out of an estimated pre-war stock of 360. America has just seven THAAD batteries so that the Iran war could leave the US without a system critical to defending ballistic missile threats from countries such as China or North Korea. Before the war the US had some 3,000 Tomahawk attack missiles but it has, according to sources, fired at least 1,000 so far and is running short. Getting these back to a normal stock level could take until 2031. The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile - the TLAM - is usually fired from ships or submarines at targets well over 1,000 miles away, often hard shelters such as bunkers or fortress-like buildings. They allow attacks from a stand-off position, minimising the risk to troops. Even President Trump put aside his usual over -compensating confidence, letting it slip recently that production was slow for him. He said of missile stocks: "We have the best quality in the world. But we need a little more speed." And it was hardly surprising so-called Secretary of War Pete Hegseth recently told the Senate Appropriations Committee the Pentagon needs another £68bn for “critical shortfalls.” Beijing’s President Xi said some years ago that his Army had to be ready for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and with the US entrenched in the Middle East with little sign of an exit strategy this is becoming a headache for the US. It is possible China may feel the next couple of years would provide the optimum opportunity for success in taking Taiwan, with the US short of ammunition. Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies says it could be as soon as in 2027 and may include selective or extensive missile strikes; a civilian maritime quarantine or a military blockade; the seizure of one of the Kinmen Islands close to China; a special operation aimed at decapitating Taiwan’s leadership; and a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan itself.