Inside Europe’s EV boom: Are we prepared for more than a million batteries to reach end-of-life?

Experts are calling for recycling technology to “rapidly expand” as millions of EV batteries are set to die in the coming years. More than a million electric vehicle (EV) batteries could reach end-of-life by 2030, becoming one of the world’s “fastest-growing waste streams”. Global EV sales have surged in recent years, surpassing 20 million units and now accounting for around 25 per cent of all new cars sold worldwide. The EV boom has also been bolstered by the war on Iran, which continues to send oil and gas prices soaring. In fact, more than 1.24 million fully electric cars were sold in Europe during the first half of 2026 – marking a 33.7 per cent increase compared to the same period last year. Are EVs greener than petrol cars? EVs often start with what is known as a higher “carbon debt” compared to petrol and diesel cars as they require significantly more energy to manufacture. Much of this is due to battery production, which requires huge amounts of electricity to produce heat needed during manufacturing. While this electricity can be produced through renewables, many countries still rely on burning polluting fossil fuels. Minerals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel, which are required in EV batteries, also pose environmental and social concerns. A 2023 report from Amnesty International found that the mining of critical minerals has led to a slew of human rights abuses, including forced evictions and physical assault. While modern mining remains controversial, research has shown that the environmental benefits of an EV do outweigh their energy-intensive production. A 2020 report by Transport & Environment (T&E) found that EVs outperform diesel and petrol cars in all scenarios, even on carbon-intensive grids such as Poland, where they are about 30 per cent cleaner than conventional cars. In the best case scenario, where an EV runs on clean electricity with a battery produced with clean electricity, EVs are already about five times cleaner than conventional equivalents. “Crucially, the evidence shows that EVs powered with the average electricity repay their ‘carbon debt’ from the production of the battery after slightly more than a year and save more than 27 tonnes of CO₂ over their lifetime compared to a conventional equivalent,” the report says. “EVs that do high mileage (e.g. shared vehicles, taxis or Uber-like services) save up to 77 tonnes over their lifetime (compared to diesel).” Why EV battery waste is a growing concern Most EVs are powered by lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) – the same kind found in many everyday electronics such as smartphones, laptops and games consoles. But according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the number of lithium-ion and similar batteries reaching their end-of-life is expected to rise sharply from the mid-2030s onwards. This is when the battery can no longer store or deliver energy effectively because it has degraded over time. It means that around 1.2 million EV batteries could end up as waste in the next four years. By 2040, this number is expected to reach a staggering 14 million. At the same time, demand for LIBs is rising, increasing the pressure to mine for critical minerals and risking a future shortage of lithium. While EV batteries can be recycled, it is notoriously difficult and costly to do so. Before a battery can even start the recycling process, it must undergo a time-consuming preparation phase that involves discharging, dismantling and separating its components. There are also safety risks associated with chemical reactions used to recycle batteries, which can release toxic substances such as hydrofluoric acid. These compounds pose serious risks to worker health and safety, and can even damage recycling plant equipment. It’s why experts are calling for a “significant expansion” of recycling infrastructure that will manage future waste volumes and recover valuable materials needed for new battery production safely. “EVs are a critical part of the transition to a lower-carbon economy, but their long-term success depends on how effectively we manage the waste stream that follows while also strengthening the supply of critical minerals,” says James Skifmore of environmental consultancy firm Valpak. “Expanding the capacity and efficiency of circular infrastructure will be essential to recover valuable materials, strengthen supply chains, reduce reliance on virgin resource extraction and maximise the long-term sustainability of the EV transition.” Across Europe, companies are racing to achieve exactly this. Can EV batteries be recycled more efficiently? The ReLiB project, which is being spearheaded by the University of Birmingham in the UK, is developing recycling technologies that it says will put the country at the “cutting edge” of research and development. Researchers are aiming to develop and scale-up technologies that will raise material recovery rates from recycled batteries from around 50 per cent to 90 per cent by targeting faster and more efficient dismantling and separation processes. The EU has also funded a four-year project, coordinated by the Technological Centre LEITAT in Spain, which aims to replace slow, manual dismantling with semi-automated systems that can safely disassemble batteries while recovering around 95 per cent of the components. EU-funded project BATRAW will also work on giving batteries a second life, as some EV batteries may no longer have enough capacity to power a car, but could be used for less demanding energy storage jobs – instead of being recycled straight away. The project is developing better ways to transport old batteries safely and exploring how new batteries can be designed so they’re easier to repair and recycle.