A drifting part of a SpaceX rocket is about to crash into the Moon

An abandoned SpaceX rocket section is about to crash into the Moon Wed 5 Aug 2026 at 5:42am In short: The upper section of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is about to crash into the Moon. When it crashes the impacts are likely to be visible from Earth, as it could change the physical and chemical properties of the lunar surface. What's next? The impending crash provides scientists with the opportunity for study but a space lawyer is worried that it implies the Moon is being treated with "the reverence of a garbage dump". The upper section of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is about to crash into the Moon, and the aftermath could be visible from Earth. Astrophysicists and other scientists are excited by the opportunity the collision provides to study the effects in real time. But the crash is raising questions about who is responsible for space junk and whether there should be a better communication system to avoid lunar accidents in the future, especially as the race is on to build structures on the Moon. Space lawyer Gregory Radisic is concerned about potential cascading impacts of the collision and the precedent it sets. "My main issue is the underlying implication that we seem to be treating the Moon with the reverence of a garbage dump," he told the ABC. "Accidents like these don't just leave a black mark on the reputation of the space operator, but it really does leave a black mark on the lunar surface because there's no weather, there's nothing to wash it away. "So we're basically saying we're OK with single governments or companies impacting the Moon, not just physically, but visually and not just for a few weeks until the dust settles, but likely for years and years." Crash landings on the Moon While the Moon is frequently being bombarded by meteoroids, impacts by human-made objects are much rarer. Curtin University Professor in Planetary Science Katarina Miljkovic said it was not planned for the Falcon 9, which SpaceX describes as a "reusable rocket", to crash into the Moon. "The upper stage of the rocket ended up wandering on this Moon-crossing trajectory," she said. "Normally space junk from all the rockets that we launch as we are trying to conquer space, those bits of booster rockets would fall back down on earth, but occasionally they end up getting kind of stuck in limbo. "And if they happen to be crossing the Moon's trajectory around the earth, then there is a collision." Professor Miljkovic, who is an expert in space exploration and numerical impact modelling, is excited by the opportunity to observe the collision. "There should be no danger to anyone. It's not an Armageddon of any kind. It's a small piece of debris that is colliding with the Moon," she said. "The Moon does not have any atmosphere, so you don't get it burning out in the atmosphere like we would do on Earth. It just goes straight for the hit on the ground and it will make a crater. "And, as it actually makes the crater, it releases an insane amount of energy." Part of that energy is thermal, which heats up the surface of the Moon. "You can actually see it as a millisecond blip of light, coming off the surface of the Moon, called lunar impact flashes," Professor Miljkovic said. But people in Australia won't be able to see it because it's due to crash during daylight hours, about 4:35pm AEST. Eastern North America and much of South America should have the best views. When the crash occurs, it could change the physical and chemical properties of the surface, called the regolith, where it hits. "Some of the regolith it may vaporise, some of it may get melted and fused together, and some of it can get broken up," Professor Miljkovic said. "Impacts additionally, they break the rock, but they can also fuse the rock together. "In essence, you can see it as a bit of a lawnmower, kind of reworking the top surface, the top few metres of the lunar regolith. "Ultimately, nothing too exciting, but it is important for us to understand those geotechnical properties of the top few metres of regolith for the future once we want to have more detailed exploration and more humans present, so we understand the soil better." A case for a space registry Scientists around the world, including Professor Miljkovic, are collaborating to study the impacts, using space and Earth-based telescopes and satellite imagery. Loading...On January 15, 2025, Falcon 9 launched Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost Mission 1, named Ghost Riders in the Sky, from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, with iSpace's Resilience lunar lander also aboard. Mr Radisic said the impending collision also raised the question of lunar coordination and why there needed to be a formal process for notification of upcoming accidents and large impact events in space. "I think a lot of people learned about this event the same way I did: through a singular paper that was published by some scientists," he said. "And I think the implication there is that we're not really communicating with each other on a country-to-country level, on a company-to-country level in a way that is effective for a safe lunar environment in the years to come." The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which forms the basis of space law, includes provisions for communication, but while 138 countries have signed, compliance is voluntary. Mr Radisic said governments and private companies were launching an unprecedented number of lunar missions, yet there were few practical international rules governing how activities interacted once they arrived. He said it was "becoming an operational necessity" for space operators to communicate more clearly and for a place where information could be shared to avoid potential accidents and conflict. He suggested a repository where states could identify their lunar activities and sites of cultural significance. "For example, there's a lot of sites up there where countries say they almost avoid them with reverence and other countries avoid them to avoid a diplomatic incident … like the Apollo moon landers," he said, pointing out that the United Nations already had a registry for satellites. Mr Radisic also advocated for a warning system, similar to the Notices to Air Missions (NOTAMs) used for air safety, for space flight. "If something's changing and there's an accident about to happen, or we know, like in this case, a few weeks before a piece of debris is going to land in the surface, we need to let the world know so that they can move any of their assets that are able to be moved or they can batten down the hatches and weather the storm," he said. "Because when regolith is shot up like this in a crash, it goes up kilometres, it gets whipped into the orbit, and then it starts moving at orbital speeds. "It can shred satellites, it can coat experiments, it can risk the lives of crew members, whether they're on the surface or in orbiters." Who is responsible for space junk? While the crashing rocket was made by SpaceX, the launching country is responsible for companies that operate from their soil. Professor Miljkovic said events like the crash were like "little fireworks in the sky" and didn't really affect the Moon but were important for learning more about the physics of impacts. NASA has plans to build a Moon base near the south pole, while China and Russia have announced plans for a permanent lunar base by 2035. When events like the crash occur, they shake the Moon, which is much smaller and drier than Earth. "The seismic waves actually pass through the Moon faster, so the Moon really rings when these impacts happen," Professor Miljkovic said. "That's important for the future of astronauts being more permanently placed on the Moon." The ABC sent SpaceX questions but did not receive a response.