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Why did the polls miss so badly in Michigan?

Washington Post Politics Wednesday 05 August 2026, 19:11 UTC By Scott Clement 1 min read
Key Points

Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow win over Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate on Tuesday — despite polls showing he was leading by double-digits — has sparked questions about why polls got it so wrong, and whether they’re useful for anything. Democracy Dies in Darkness The 7 logo The 7 LIVEWhy did the polls miss so badly in Michigan?

Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow win over Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate on Tuesday — despite polls showing he was leading by double-digits — has sparked questions about why polls got it so wrong, and whether they’re useful for anything. Democracy Dies in Darkness The 7 logo The 7 LIVEWhy did the polls miss so badly in Michigan? Polls overestimated Abdul El-Sayed’s lead by 12 percentage points. That isn't unusual for statewide primary contests.
Michigan (LOCATION) Abdul El-Sayed’s (PERSON) Haley Stevens (PERSON) Democratic (ORG) U.S. (LOCATION) Abdul El-Sayed (PERSON)
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