Vladimir Putin has backed himself into a corner as prodding NATO may have dire consequences

Against a backdrop of his failing and disastrous war in Ukraine, it is difficult to imagine why President Vladimir Putin would further test NATO with an attack. Russia is suffering a catastrophically-hit economy, dire recruitment issues, an ill-disciplined and incompetent military and losses to death and injury of some 1.4 million troops. But Kremlin doctrine and Putin’s nature dictates that retreat is not an option, given the poor optics that would deliver back home and abroad and there are rumblings of dissent in Moscow. The way he probably views his situation is as if he is backed into a corner even though this position is all of his own making. Now there are reports Putin could attack a NATO ally within weeks to put the alliance to the test and many in the intelligence community are concerned this could happen. Poland and the Baltic States have warned for months that Moscow could launch an attack, some even suggesting the Kremlin would try a ‘false flag’ assault. But the latest reports are far more serious and indicate Putin may even give the go-ahead for an attack involving Russian troops, although it is unclear exactly where. Sadly, whilst it is impossible to read Putin’s mind, judging by his past actions it is possible something exasperating and escalatory like this could happen. Testing NATO’s resolve, reaction times, cohesion, military organisation and determination to thwart his expansion plans are essential to maintaining what he believes is leverage. He wants to know what he can get away with without poking NATO so hard that Russia will suffer consequences beyond sanctions and diplomatic furore. Reports suggest a major cyber attack is possible, since there would be an element of deniability but actions on the ground such as an incursion are also a possibility. We only have to look at how Putin’s Russia has behaved in recent years to judge what they are capable of. His special forces have murdered people on British streets in the Salisbury attack of 2018, the 2006 poisoning of former spy Alexander Litvinenko in London. His regular troops have committed countless war crimes, including rape, torture, murder and kidnapping in Ukraine. Russian mercenary networks such as The Wagner Group have committed heinous acts across Syria, Africa and beyond. But beyond sanctions and the banishing of scores of his declared spies he has not suffered hard, overt military consequences from his actions, apart from support for Ukraine. NATO countries are pumping vast resources into the war in Ukraine, an arms race is underway following the US’s insistence Europe has to learn to defend itself against Russia. This has triggered the Kremlin into action, regardless of the fact it was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that prompted NATO’s urgent re-arming and not a threat from the alliance. And many believe it is entirely possible he has for the past four years been misled into believing his war in Ukraine is progressing far better than it actually is. Several years ago during a meeting with a former CIA officer I asked him how Putin would react to an embarrassing rumour that was emerging about his health. The retired spook told me: “It is very possible he is unaware of it - who among the sycophants he has surrounded himself with would want to tell him? They could easily end up falling out of a window. That’s what happens to despots - they often don’t get bad news because everyone is too nervous to pass it on. Even worse, their underlings get used to telling the boss what they believe he wants to hear, constantly agreeing with the person and never arguing.” The pressure Putin perceives from NATO’s support of Ukraine is entirely of his own doing, as is the European arms race to prepare for a perceived threat from Russia. Putin has isolated himself so much he may not know exactly how badly the war is going for Russia. An armed provocation on Polish soil or elsehwhere would tell him exactly what those consequences would be and he may think he can get away with it, to keep pushing and prodding. The momentum towards Kremlin aggression towards Eastern Europe is almost unstoppable since his stated aim is to re-create the Soviet empire. And that is why, until NATO lashes out physically the Russian bully will keep poking and provoking until he gets a punch on the nose - and the outcome of that will be either the end of his presidency or a wider war.