Rockets offseason recap and early season preview: Can Rockets contend in the West?

Can the Houston Rockets, now entering Year 2 of the Kevin Durant era, find their footing as a perennial Western Conference threat? It's a question that seemed just out of reach for the 2025-26 team, whose season ended in a whimper following a season of point guard questions, rumors and a 4-2 series loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. The answer could come in the form of one of the veteran acquisitions this offseason. Perhaps it will come from on-court continuity between Durant, Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun and availability from Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams. Regardless, the West's landscape has significantly shifted this summer, and Houston has something to prove if it wants to be in the conference's upper tier. ESPN's staff of experts is looking back at the offseason and taking an early look at the 2026-27 season for all 30 teams, with 30 pieces -- one for every team -- rolling out each weekday through Sept. 18. We're answering the biggest looming questions, evaluating X factors and much more for all 30 teams. Let's dive into the Rockets, whose young roster was bolstered with experience this summer: Quick links: Roster | Depth chart | Transactions More Rockets coverage | More NBA Offseason at a glance Key additions: G Marcus Smart, G Bogdan Bogdanovic Key retentions: F Tari Eason Key subtractions: F Dorian Finney-Smith, G Josh Okogie After suffering a first-round postseason exit for the second consecutive season, the Rockets resisted the temptation to jump into the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes after adding former MVP Durant last summer. General manager Rafael Stone and coach Ime Udoka will instead lean on growth from the team's collection of young talent acquired in recent years, not to mention the continuity that comes with those players developing together over multiple seasons. Houston signed Tari Eason to a five-year, $81.5 million extension over the summer. But outside of that, the Rockets focused on bolstering depth by bringing aboard veterans Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic. The club also brought in renowned shooting coach Chip Engelland from Oklahoma City. Engelland spent more than a decade with the San Antonio Spurs, winning two titles. -- Michael C. Wright Zach Kram's offseason grade: B+ Some shine has come off the Rockets because of their dispiriting playoff defeat against the short-handed Lakers, but they enjoyed another solid offseason, nonetheless. Losing three second-round picks to dump Dorian Finney-Smith's contract hurts, but Houston doubled down on its defensive identity by adding Smart and re-signing Eason on team-friendly deals; Eason's five-year, $81.5 million deal as a restricted free agent is one of the best value contracts of the summer. -- Kram What we learned this offseason From Ben Golliver's offseason lessons piece: Rafael Stone isn't Daryl Morey. Back in Morey's days as general manager from 2007 to 2020, the Rockets seemingly relished cycling through star players in pursuit of a championship: Dwight Howard, James Harden, Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook all took turns. Even though the Rockets were embarrassed by the undermanned Los Angeles Lakers in a first-round series loss, Stone resisted the temptation to blow up his coaching staff or roster. Instead, he retained Ime Udoka as coach, re-signed Eason, acquired veterans Smart and Bogdanovic, and shipped out Finney-Smith, who barely contributed last season. Houston is banking on Fred VanVleet's return from injury (torn right ACL) and another year of collective development for its young players to translate into postseason progress. It's not a terrible bet given that the Oklahoma City Thunder, Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves all lost key players this summer, but it will require Durant and Alperen Sengun to function more effectively as a partnership in their second season together. This much is clear: The pressure will quickly mount on Stone to make changes if Houston can't fix its clunky offense, which fell to pieces in the playoffs. -- Golliver The big question: Can Houston realistically compete in the West's upper echelon? We'll see. Clearly, Oklahoma City and San Antonio reside in the top tier, but Houston might have a fighting chance. Durant will be more familiar in Year 2, and the Rockets won't be using a by-committee approach at point guard this season with the expected return of Fred VanVleet, who suffered a season-ending ACL tear before the start of training camp last season. Big man Steven Adams will be back, too, after undergoing season-ending left ankle surgery in January. Thompson and Reed Sheppard were thrown into the fire with larger roles last season and showed growth that will pay off this season. Sengun also won't be charged with facilitating offense like he did last season. That should free him up to pummel opponents more in the paint. -- Wright Basketball Power Index rank: No. 9 Here are the predicted Net Points per 100 possessions for the Rockets' top seven players for the 2026-27 season: Over the past three years, Durant has posted plus-2.8 net points per 48 minutes against the best competition, a mark that is in the top 10 across the league. The next best Rocket is Jabari Smith Jr. at plus-0.6, then Sengun at plus-0.2, with Thompson at minus-1.0 and Sheppard at minus-1.3. For the Rockets to take another step in the playoffs, they need some of the younger players to at least get to plus-1.0 because the conference semis and beyond are almost all really good teams. -- Dean Oliver Read about how Net Points works here. Biggest X factor this season When Adams was on the floor last season, Houston had a plus-11.8 net rating, which was the highest for any player on the team. He offered a unique stylistic element that helped the Rockets overcome their other offensive challenges, as they rebounded an outrageous 44% of their own misses with Adams on the court, per Cleaning the Glass. It's no coincidence that Houston faltered down the stretch with Adams out, as he didn't play after January because of ankle surgery. The Rockets will hope he can stay healthy next season, though he hasn't reached 60 games since 2021-22. -- Kram Betting insight from our experts Bet to make ahead of the season: Rockets to win OVER 47.5 regular-season games (+100) The Rockets have cleared 50 wins in back-to-back seasons, so a line of 47.5 feels too low for a team that added more depth. VanVleet's return gives Houston another late-game option, while Adams and Smart strengthen an already physical defense. Unless injuries pile up, the Rockets should find themselves in the 50-win range. -- Eric Moody Odds by DraftKings at time of publication.