Despot Assad is serving a life sentence - and he knows he can't trust Putin to protect him forever

Fallen ex-Syrian dictator is already serving a life sentence as he languishes in a luxury Moscow high-rise apartment, his freedom of movement gone forever. As he receives news from Damascus of his death sentence for war crimes and crimes against humanity the only consolation will be it is unlikely to happen any time soon. His successor, former al-Qaeda operative Ahmad al-Sharaa, has already formally asked for the 60 year-old fugitive to be returned to his home country for trial. That request was politely turned down, for now, and the trial went ahead in absentia, although now it has been concluded and the death sentence decided upon. President Vladimir Putin is unlikely for the time being to turn him over and hand him to the Syrians but that act of betrayal cannot be discounted forever. And few in Syria will mourn such a punishment happening to Assad, a president whose clamping down on a student demonstration led to 14 years of slaughter. The dusty streets of Syria from Damascus to the Iraqi, Lebanese, Iraqi, Jordanian and even Israeli borders ran with blood for all of those years - often after a decision by Assad. He lived a fabulously opulent life and squandered it all on the altar of oppressive violence resulting in the deaths of 620,000 Syrians and the displacement of 14 million people. But he is wily and knows he cannot trust Putin, as he is never really free even when he goes shopping in malls in Moscow’s gated and elite community of prestigious Rublyovka. Some say he is studying Russian and has taken up his medical interest again, studying Ophthalmology, perhaps in a bid to kill time, knowing Putin’s goons are never far away. Perhaps he is safe for now. The Kremlin’s dwindling number of friends in the world means Putin has to keep the few he has left thinking he can be relied upon even when under pressure. For years Putin did shady deals with Assad, parking his submarines and his other navy vessels off Tartous, the Syrian port which became the Kremlin’s Mediterranean gateway to Europe. When Assad fled in 2024 he immediately turned to Moscow whose spooks helped him, loading up a private jet with bullion and other riches before he fled. But perhaps with the billions being ‘looked after’ by Putin for now it is obvious that Assad has virtually nothing to offer the Russian President in terms of strategic gain. Russia has in the past two years secured a deal with al-Sharaa on some kind of share scheme for the base in Tartous and other military sites in Syria. But Putin will not want to sell out Assad totally, handing him over to the Syrians where will be hanged or shot to death, probably in public, for a litany of crimes against his own people. Iran in particular will be watching what Putin does next, given links to Tehran Assad’s Shia Alowite tribe have long held with the Shia country. It was through Syria that much of Tehran’s shadowy Islamic Republican Guard Corps travelled on training missions into Lebanon with the Hezbollah terror network. These are religious and ideological ties that go beyond the links of necessity which best describe the relationship between Assad and Putin. But Putin will not want to upset Tehran for the sake of some deal with the new regime in Damascus. So as Assad and his London-born wife, 51 year-old Asma, their children and a few close friends and relatives pace up and down in their plush apartment they know the future is uncertain. And one day, at the whim of Putin, Russian armed thugs could come to the door, push them into vans and scream towards a waiting private plane. And no matter how much sucking up they have done to Putin, or whoever takes over from him, they may land in Damascus for a terrifying and deadly return. Because Putin may have felt forced to cash in one of his most prized pawns, which to him, is all people are.