SEC 2026-27 projections: 3 possible champions, 3 teams that won't go dancing, more

At this point in the offseason, everyone usually assumes their team can make a run to the NCAA tournament, based on information currently at hand. They also need that one friend who will hold their hand and tell them the truth -- even if it's not easy to digest. (Sorry, Mississippi State.) Usually. Our attempt to project the floor (how bad could it get?) and ceiling (how good can it get?) for every team in the major conferences would normally bank on assessing the sport at large and analyzing rosters and offseason moves. But, the offseason has been anything but quiet. The NCAA continues to face multiple legal challenges, both at the state and federal level, from players who were excluded from its new age-based eligibility rules ("five for five") and want a chance to play in the 2026-27 season. Until more is known about the fate of this pool of players, we've decided not to factor those players into our projections. We opened this series last week with the Big Ten's projections. This week, it's time to look at the SEC. Florida is looking to put together a historic season and win its second national title in three years. Texas recently received a boost from one of America's top high school players and is a strong contender in Sean Miller's second year at the helm. Kentucky's Mark Pope enters Year 3 in Lexington attempting to save his job. Which of the SEC's teams can take the league back to the top of the sport? Teams are ordered by their total win ceiling projections. 1. Florida Gators 2025-26 finish: 27-8, 16-2 SEC, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 32 CEILING Total wins: 40 SEC finish: First Postseason finish: National champion FLOOR Total wins: 30 SEC finish: Third Postseason finish: Sweet 16 Although the idea of an undefeated season might seem far-fetched -- the 1975-76 Indiana team was the last to do it in men's college basketball -- remember that the Gators finished 36-4 during their 2025 national title run. Three of those four losses were decided by 12 points combined. If Denzel Aberdeen (7.7 PPG during that title run before spending last season at Kentucky) gets cleared for a fifth season, the Gators will have four of their core players -- Aberdeen, Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon -- back from that championship team. The concern? The core of this group played last season, too, and didn't even reach the second weekend. 2. Texas Longhorns 2025-26 finish: 21-15, 9-9 SEC, lost in the Sweet 16 CEILING Total wins: 37 SEC finish: First Postseason finish: National champion FLOOR Total wins: 24 SEC finish: Fifth Postseason finish: Sweet 16 When he was introduced as head coach prior to last offseason, Sean Miller made a promise to the Longhorns' fanbase: "I am looking forward to the future of doing amazing things, which has become the standard here at Texas." The group squeezed into the NCAA tournament as an 11-seed -- more surprising than amazing -- then went on a run to the Sweet 16. But signing Marcus Spears Jr., the No. 1 recruit in the 2027 class who reclassified to play this season, is the most amazing thing Miller has done to date. Earning the program's first Final Four appearance in 24 years would be even more incredible than that. 3. Arkansas Razorbacks 2025-26 finish: 28-9, 13-5 SEC, lost in the Sweet 16 CEILING Total wins: 36 SEC finish: First Postseason finish: National champion FLOOR Total wins: 24 SEC finish: Seventh Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 32 Darius Acuff Jr. finished last season as arguably the nation's best point guard -- an accomplishment that led to him being named the unanimous SEC Player of the Year and becoming a top-10 draft pick. He also left giant shoes to fill. Five-star recruit Jordan Smith will step in but told ESPN earlier this year that he intends to play the point guard role his way. He might not be able to match the ballhandling exploits of his predecessor, but he could be a more dominant two-way threat and give John Calipari his first Final Four squad in more than a decade. 4. Tennessee Volunteers 2025-26 finish: 25-12, 11-7 SEC, lost in the Elite Eight CEILING Total wins: 32 SEC finish: First Postseason finish: Final Four FLOOR Total wins: 23 SEC finish: Eighth Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 32 Losing your top six scorers would be an unsettling development for most coaches. Not for Rick Barnes, who has thrived by hitting the reset button. He has had an All-SEC first team selection on his roster for five consecutive seasons -- with Wake Forest transfer Juke Harris, who scored 28 points or more in seven games last season, poised to be the team's breakout star. Plus, the Vols have finished in the top three in adjusted defensive efficiency in four of the past five years. Despite the collection of new faces, Barnes keeps the system humming. 5. Vanderbilt Commodores 2025-26 finish: 27-9, 11-7 SEC, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 32 CEILING Total wins: 30 SEC finish: Second Postseason finish: Elite Eight FLOOR Total wins: 23 SEC finish: Seventh Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64 Mark Byington was at a wedding when he received the news Tyler Tanner would be withdrawing from the NBA draft and returning to Vanderbilt. He cried tears of joy then, he told ESPN, for both the bride and groom as well as his veteran star. Tanner, an All-SEC first team selection, should be a preseason All-American this season after leading the Commodores to a 16-0 start -- matching the best start in school history. He will once again carry the offensive load for a team that welcomes a slew of newcomers headlined by Missouri transfer T.O. Barrett. The aim this season: compete for a slot in the top tier of the SEC and make a run to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007. 6. Missouri Tigers 2025-26 finish: 20-13, 10-8 SEC, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 64 CEILING Total wins: 30 SEC finish: Second Postseason finish: Final Four FLOOR Total wins: 22 SEC finish: Seventh Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64 Dennis Gates has led Missouri to three NCAA tournament appearances in four seasons, but he hasn't yet found a way to get the Tigers to the second weekend. That should change -- and maybe it has to -- with a stacked incoming recruiting class. Five-star Jason Crowe is a 6-3 guard and projected lottery pick in the 2027 NBA draft, while Toni Bryant is a 6-foot-9 forward who is one of the most explosive playmakers in the class. They join returnee Trent Pierce and transfers Bryson Tiller (Kansas), Jaylen Carey (Tennessee) and Jamier Jones (Providence) on Gates' most talented roster in Columbia to date. 7. Kentucky Wildcats 2025-26 finish: 22-14, 10-8 SEC, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 32 CEILING Total wins: 30 SEC finish: Second Postseason finish: Elite Eight FLOOR Total wins: 20 SEC finish: Eighth Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64 Last season, Kentucky reportedly spent $20 million on its roster -- then finished in a three-way tie for seventh place in the SEC. The injuries didn't help, but the season overall was largely viewed as a failure, considering the preseason hype. Facing questions about his future, Mark Pope managed to make some moves this past offseason: He grabbed former Iowa State star Milan Momcilovic (16.9 PPG, 49% from beyond the arc), the best player in the transfer portal, and convinced standout center Malachi Moreno to return for his sophomore season. How those moves play out over the course of this campaign will have a sizable impact on Pope's hot seat status. 8. Alabama Crimson Tide 2025-26 finish: 25-10, 13-5 SEC, lost in the Sweet 16 CEILING Total wins: 28 SEC finish: Second Postseason finish: Elite Eight FLOOR Total wins: 20 SEC finish: Eighth Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64 Alabama basketball under Nate Oats has been defined by two things: elite offensive production few programs have matched and unyielding drama off the court. This season might again include both, depending on the status of Aden Holloway, the Crimson Tide star who was arrested on a felony drug charge in March but has a chance to regain his spot on the team if he stays out of trouble. With first-round pick Labaron Philon Jr. gone, Oats will need Holloway (16.8 PPG, 44% from 3 last season) to be the leader of a group that includes a stacked recruiting class led by five-star prospect Jaxon Richardson, son of former Michigan State and NBA standout Jason Richardson. But the gap between this team's floor and ceiling is tied to all the unknowns. 9. Georgia Bulldogs 2025-26 finish: 22-11, 10-8 SEC, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 64 CEILING Total wins: 25 SEC finish: Fourth Postseason finish: Sweet 16 FLOOR Total wins: 20 SEC finish: Ninth Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64 Retaining three key players from a team that finished the regular season with a 5-1 stretch is rare in this transfer portal/NIL/rev-share era. Mike White could write a book about it, because he did just that. Blue Cain (13.1 PPG), Kanon Catchings (11.6 PPG) and Marcus Millender (12.0 PPG) are three of the Bulldogs' top four scorers from last season and helped to capture the school's 14th NCAA tournament bid. Their return could help give White his third consecutive NCAA bid. 10. Texas A&M Aggies 2025-26 finish: 22-12-, 11-7 SEC, lost in NCAA tournament round of 32 CEILING Total wins: 25 SEC finish: Fourth Postseason finish: Sweet 16 FLOOR Total wins: 18 SEC finish: 10th Postseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearance Bucky McMillan's tenure in College Station began with a 22-win season and a trip to the NCAA tournament. To extend that momentum after losing the bulk of his starting rotation and four of his top five scorers, he'll need Mackenzie Mgbako to finally reach his ceiling, years after he arrived at Indiana as a five-star recruit. Mgbako led all Aggies in scoring during a summer exhibition tour in the Bahamas, a good sign for the program. If he and P.J. Haggerty (23.4 PPG at Kansas State last season) can get on the same page, we could see Buckyball at the NCAA tournament once again. 11. Auburn Tigers 2025-26 finish: 22-16, 7-11 SEC, lost in the SEC tournament second round, won the NIT championship CEILING Total wins: 25 SEC finish: Sixth Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 32 FLOOR Total wins: 20 SEC finish: 11th Postseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearance Steven Pearl sat beside his father, Bruce, for years as the latter guided the Tigers through a lengthy stretch of success, including a pair of Final Four appearances. Things haven't continued that way for the younger Pearl after he took over last season: Auburn won the NIT championship, but only after weathering a 1-7 stretch that torpedoed its shot at an at-large NCAA tournament berth. But both Tahaad Pettiford and Kevin Overton -- who combined to score 50 points in the team's win over Tulsa in the NIT championship -- are returning this season. The big question: Is there a replacement for Keyshawn Hall (19.3 PPG, 38% from 3)? 12. Oklahoma Sooners 2025-26 finish: 21-16, 7-11 SEC, lost in the SEC tournament quarterfinal CEILING Total wins: 22 SEC finish: Eighth Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64 FLOOR Total wins: 17 SEC: 12th Postseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearance Porter Moser finished the 2025-26 regular season 6-2, having managed to salvage things -- including, quite possibly, his job -- after a 1-9 start. This kind of roller coaster wasn't expected when he was hired in 2021, three years after leading Loyola Chicago to the Final Four. Xzayvier Brown returns after connecting on 40% of his 3-point attempts in SEC action last season. And Texas A&M transfer Pop Isaacs leads a respectable incoming crew that also includes two top-100 recruits. After losing more than 50 points per game of offense, however, the questions about Moser's future might continue. 13. LSU Tigers 2025-26 finish: 15-17, 3-15 SEC, lost in the SEC tournament first round CEILING Total wins: 21 SEC finish: 10th Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64 FLOOR Total wins: 13 SEC finish: 16th Postseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearance What do you even say here? At publication time, Will Wade had just four confirmed players on his roster. That's not a typo or a mistake. The newly returned Tigers head coach is banking on the "five for five" court proceedings, along with the international prospects (see: EuroLeague standout Brice Dessert) and former Big East Player of the Year RJ Luis Jr., who signed pro contracts, to fill out his squad. The NCAA is contesting the eligibility of everyone Wade has waiting in the wings. Yet, Wade has always played by his own rules. And history suggests that if he gets a decent roster together by the time the season tips, he'll probably win. 14. Mississippi State Bulldogs 2025-26 finish: 13-19, 5-13 SEC, lost in the SEC tournament first round CEILING Total wins: 20 SEC finish: 11th Postseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearance FLOOR Total wins: 14 SEC finish: 15th Postseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearance As bad as last season was for the Bulldogs, it also wasn't the norm. Chris Jans had never had a losing season -- it was the program's worst record in more than a decade -- and hadn't missed the NCAA tournament since arriving in Starkville four years ago. The concern here is that even with a rebuilt roster with seven transfers, there's a limit to how much weight 6-foot star Josh Hubbard can carry. His 22.1 PPG wasn't enough to keep the Bulldogs afloat last season. There are currently few reasons to think that will change. 15. Ole Miss Rebels 2025-26 finish: 15-20, 4-14 SEC, lost in the SEC tournament semifinal CEILING Total wins: 17 SEC finish: 11th Postseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearance FLOOR Total wins: 13 SEC finish: 16th Postseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearance Chris Beard's first season at Ole Miss ended with a Sweet 16 appearance, seemingly setting the stage for a strong run in Oxford. Then it all fell apart, and a team that had enjoyed a top-25 offense in that Sweet 16 campaign finished last season 92nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. The 1-12 collapse down the stretch was one of the worst falls in the country. Double-figure scorer Ilias Kamardine, Seton Hall transfer Adam Clark and four-star recruit Jaron Saulsberry will hope to erase last season's blemishes, though. 16. South Carolina Gamecocks 2025-26 finish: 13-19, 4-14 SEC, lost in the SEC tournament first round CEILING Total wins: 17 SEC finish: 12th Postseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearance FLOOR Total wins: 12 SEC finish: 16th Postseason finish: No NCAA tournament appearance The South Carolina administration decided to keep Lamont Paris despite last season's dismal finish. It also promised more resources, including cash to compete for talent. All-Atlantic 10 second-teamer Kory Mincy (George Mason), Camden Heide (Texas) and Marcus Johnson (2026 SC Next No. 63) are all now in Columbia because of it. Yet the SEC is full of teams with plenty of cash to spend. Paris will have to orchestrate one of his greatest coaching efforts to keep the Gamecocks out of the league's cellar. It should be noted South Carolina was picked to finish last in the SEC ahead of the 2023-24 campaign before it ultimately ended up in second place and made the NCAA tournament.