Florida primaries for governor and Congress test Trump’s grip on his adopted state

Florida primaries for governor and Congress test Trump’s grip on his adopted state Trump has had an inconsistent record on picks for governor in primaries this year - Bookmark - CommentsGo to comments Voters in Florida head to the polls on Tuesday as a Republican campaigning to become the state's first Black governor faces a crowded field and Democrats wage primary battles for a reduced pool of left-leaning seats under redrawn congressional maps. U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is banking on President Donald Trump’s endorsement to claim the Republican gubernatorial nomination ahead of November. He is challenged in the primary by Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and political newcomer James Fishback. Leading the Democratic field for governor is David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who changed party affiliation last year. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a prominent conservative who has both aligned and clashed with Trump, cannot seek election to a third straight term due to limits. Tuesday’s primary contests will finalize the November matchups, testing Trump’s political influence in his adopted home state alongside Democrats' efforts to make Florida competitive once again nationally. Although the state has swung decisively toward Republicans since Trump's 2016 victory, Democrats are aiming to take advantage of his declining favorability numbers to recover lost ground. In the Democratic primary for a U.S. Senate special election to finish Marco Rubio’s term following his appointment as Trump's secretary of state, two candidates are competing. Progressive state lawmaker Angie Nixon faces retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, the former National Security Council staffer who gave testimony during Trump's 2019 impeachment trial. On the Republican side, Sen. Ashley Moody, who was appointed by DeSantis, holds a solid position as she runs with Trump's backing for the nomination to serve out the final two years. The top congressional primary features veteran Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, former U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, and additional contenders competing in a newly redrawn southern Florida district. Wasserman Schultz, who is white, seeks a 12th term from voters in this majority-minority, plurality Black seat. Cherfilus-McCormick hopes to return to office after stepping down earlier this year while facing a federal indictment and potential House ethics action. Donalds aims to make history — as does Jolly Only three Black governors have been elected in American history, but 47-year-old Donalds places greater emphasis on his conservative record than on the prospect of making historical milestones. His platform includes cutting taxes, restructuring Florida's insurance industry regulations to reduce consumer expenses, and requiring healthcare providers to disclose prices more transparently. "The people of Florida want to make sure that the Florida dream is alive and well into the future," he said recently. "Affordability is a problem for all Floridians. It doesn't matter what your politics are. It doesn't matter what the color of your skin is." With Trump showing a mixed record in primary endorsements for governor this cycle, a decisive victory for Donalds would bolster Trump and place the party on firmer footing for the general election. While DeSantis won comfortably in 2022, his initial 2018 victory was decided by just over 32,000 votes out of 8.1 million cast. Jolly aims to show that a former Republican who changed parties can succeed as the Democratic nominee in Florida, where previous attempts failed. In 2022, Democrats chose former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist as their candidate, only to lose to DeSantis by nearly 20 points. Can Democrats turn the Senate race competitive? Moody, the former state attorney general appointed to Rubio's seat in 2025, enters the GOP primary as a clear favorite. Upon her appointment, DeSantis commended her as a steadfast prosecutor prepared to assist Trump to "shut the border," curb inflation, and reform a federal bureaucracy "run amok." The Democratic primary mirrors broader ideological divisions, pitting the progressive Nixon against establishment-backed Vindman. Vindman’s 2019 testimony proved pivotal in the House impeachment proceedings that ultimately resulted in Trump’s acquittal by the Republican-controlled Senate, after which Trump removed Vindman from his position. Florida voters have not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2012. Wasserman Schultz competes in redrawn plurality Black district In office since 2005, she is campaigning in a newly configured district created after DeSantis successfully enacted new congressional maps designed to strengthen Trump's midterm prospects during national redistricting efforts. Though Wasserman Schultz has previously campaigned before new electorates following Republican redistricting, she is currently the lone white candidate in a plurality Black constituency. The modified 20th Congressional District encompasses the most diverse and heavily Democratic sections of Broward County, while excluding her residence in Weston, located west of Fort Lauderdale. Her four Black primary rivals, including Cherfilus-McCormick, contend that the district should have Black representation, a stance Wasserman Schultz rejects. "Representation matters and lived experience matters. But experience and making sure that you have someone who has the seniority and the seasoning to be able to deliver for a district, it matters as well," she said. Meanwhile, Cherfilus-McCormick is seeking a return to Capitol Hill despite facing an indictment charging her with stealing $5 million in federal relief funds. She has pleaded not guilty and denied breaking House ethics rules. Republican Rep. Cory Mills faces primary challengers DeSantis and key party figures have withdrawn support from Republican Rep. Cory Mills as he campaigns for a third term in Florida's 7th Congressional District while denying allegations of domestic violence. Three primary opponents are challenging him. "I have not endorsed Cory Mills, and I do not support Cory Mills," DeSantis said recently in Mills' district. Primary turnout offers indicators for November Registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats in Florida following a recent voter registration shift, placing expectations on the GOP to generate significantly higher turnout on Tuesday. A tight turnout gap—achieved by Democrats mobilizing a larger proportion of their base—could boost Democratic confidence ahead of November, matching trends observed elsewhere this year. Conversely, if Republican participation far exceeds Democratic engagement, Democrats may encounter another difficult election cycle this autumn. Miami-Dade County will serve as a key barometer. Democrats held a dominant advantage there through 2016, when Hillary Clinton won the county by 30 points over Trump. Trump narrowed that margin to seven points in 2020 before winning the county by over 11 points in 2024. Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies Comments