As drought hits Germany's harvest, will food prices rise?

As drought hits Germany's harvest, will food prices rise? August 18, 20261. How severe is Germany's 2026 harvest decline? The German Farmers' Association (DBV) on Tuesday warned of a "below-average" harvest due to ongoing drought that has left large areas of farmland severely parched. In a statement, DBV President Joachim Rukwied warned that the country's grain harvest would be 7% lower than last year, blaming an "overly dry spring and a heat wave in the second half of June," which had "significantly damaged many crops." Overall grain production was expected to be 41.9 million tons this year, the DBV said, a shortfall of some 3.3 million tons compared with 2025. Rapeseed saw the largest fall, with 3.3 million tons harvested, nearly 17% lower than last year. Barley remained at last year's level despite a lower yield, as more land was used to grow the crop. The potato crop was also expected to be below average and some regions would see a "significantly worse" harvest for sugar beet, DBV said. Rukwied noted how location played a bigger role in determining crop yields this year than usual, and pointed to poor crop yields and even crop failures, particularly in southern and western Germany. Separately, Germany's Federal Statistical Office warned that the country's apple harvest was forecast to drop 18% compared with last year. Germany is experiencing a severe drought during a summer of frequent record-breaking temperatures, which has exacerbated the effects of below-average rainfall since March, according to the German Weather Service. 2. How will the drought affect food prices and availability? Agriculture Minister Alois Rainer said Tuesday that the government isn't expecting a sudden or sharp increase in food prices as a result of the lower harvest. "I don't expect prices to rise immediately because food prices also depend on many other factors — the supply chain, transportation and production," he told public broadcaster ZDF. The German Raiffeisen Association, which represents 1,600 agricultural cooperatives, also said last week a large hike in prices was unlikely. However, the large falls in rapeseed and sugar beet production could reduce domestic supply of oil and sugar, requiring imports to make up the shortfall. Local media reported last week that the drought was also causing animal feed stocks to fall drastically in several states, particularly in southern Germany. The German Farmers' Association has previously warned that lower grain yields and weaker grassland growth could push up prices for feed, meat, milk and eggs In the hardest-hit areas of the country, potatoes and other vegetables could become more expensive as supply tightens. For most shoppers, however, the main impact is more likely to be gradual price increases rather than shortages. 3. How does this drought fit into wider food security concerns? Farming, both at home and globally, has faced repeated pressures since the COVID-19 pandemic. German food prices have risen by over 36% since 2020, according to government data published last month. The price hikes were especially strong for poultry meat, many dairy products and eggs, edible fats and oils, and sugar, the government calculated. Russia's war in Ukraine disrupted Black Sea exports of Ukrainian grain in 2022 and drove energy prices higher, impacting the cost of fertilizer, transport and food processing. More recently, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war prevented oil, gas and fertilizer ingredients from leaving the Gulf. The conflict has pushed up prices of diesel fuel, fertilizers and pesticides, with some farmers cutting back on soil nutrients. Compounding crises over the past six years have left large parts of the German agriculture sector financially stretched, the industry has warned. Many farmers have said they face much higher costs and rising debts, and have limited room to absorb further losses. 4. What support are German farmers seeking? The German Farmers' Association said some farmers may need interim financing to secure their futures. Rukwied called on Berlin to launch an "immediate package" to help support the agriculture sector. Recommendations include boosting the European Union's fertilizer aid package from €60 million to €180 million ($208 million), paid out quickly and without red tape. DBV also called on ministers to cut the tax on agricultural diesel, at least until the end of November. For several months from late 2023, German farmers blocked highways with tractors over plans to scrap fuel subsidies for the agricultural sector, which were later partially reversed. Agriculture Minister Rainer on Tuesday promised targeted help to farmers, but only when reliable official figures are available at the end of August. Edited by: Tim Rooks