WA by-election puts One Nation's growing appeal to the test

analysis One Nation faces its first real test in WA in high-stakes Secret Harbour by-election What's more likely: Angus Taylor becoming prime minister or Basil Zempilas coaching the West Coast Eagles? It sounds like the set-up to a joke, but it was a question effectively posed by Zempilas himself on Tuesday morning. While attacking Labor for failing to secure a firm commitment from the prime minister on WA's share of the GST, he was asked whether he would seek the same assurances from his federal leader. "Well, he's not the prime minister," Zempilas shot back. "He could be," a reporter replied. "He could be, and I could be the coach of the West Coast Eagles as well," Zempilas retorted. There are plenty of parallels between the struggling Liberals and the floundering Eagles, but it's safe to say Zempilas wasn't exactly talking up Taylor's chances of leading the country. One Nation: Friend or foe? Labor's attacks wrote themselves. "The leader of the opposition got out the white flag and waved it for Angus Taylor," Deputy Premier Rita Saffioti told parliament later that day. "But we know that he is very used to waving the white flag because he has waved the white flag … in Secret Harbour. He wants One Nation to win." It's a claim Labor has made throughout the by-election campaign, and one that Zempilas has strenuously denied each time. "The ultimate win for us will be [Liberal candidate] Ryan Robertson joining us in parliament," he said on Monday, as pre-polling began. "But will Labor losing a seat that they have always held also be a victory for us? Yes, it will." Whether it's surrendering to One Nation or being realistic about his party's chances, the Liberals are certainly not opposing the prospect of the minor party taking the seat. Zempilas was happy to chat with One Nation's candidate Luke Herdegen at the early voting centre, and the Liberals' social media has not criticised — or even mentioned — Herdegen. On the one hand, it's an understandable response. For the Liberals to even dream of winning the seat, they would need One Nation preferences, so they cannot afford to upset the party. On the other hand, One Nation poses a threat to the Liberals' very existence. Just look at South Australia, where two of the four seats One Nation won at the March election were taken directly from the blue team. First WA test for One Nation Western Australia is vastly different to the east coast, where One Nation has surged in opinion polls, and South Australia, where they've been tested at the ballot box. Next Saturday's Secret Harbour by-election will be the first real test of whether the party's popularity is also rising across the Nullarbor. The poll is expected to challenge Labor's stronghold on the rapidly growing, mortgage-belt seat, where a mix of older Western Australians and young families struggling with the cost of living reside. Former Labor treasurer Ben Wyatt explained one reason why One Nation may be appealing to voters in Secret Harbour. "If you oversell your capacity as a government to solve the problems of the world for people and you can't do it, because inevitably you can't do all those things, you create dissatisfaction," he told a business breakfast on Wednesday. "I think there is a real opportunity now, and Australians would be receptive to it — just a bit of an honest conversation of what is the role of government." Perhaps that is part of what voters see in One Nation. "The political system in this country needs shaking up. Labor and Liberal just take voters for mugs, basically," one early voter told reporters this week. "I think we've just had this government in for too long, so just need a bit of change," another Secret Harbour resident said. What kind of change? "Just across the board, a bit of everything I think — just fresh people, fresh eyes," he said. 'Wave of poison' Premier Roger Cook acknowledged there was "no doubt" One Nation would take votes off Labor when the counting began, and that his party could "absolutely" lose the seat. "In addition to the fact that you have this usual pattern of swings away from governments during by-elections, you also have this situation where you've got this wave of poison coming from the One Nation debate on the east coast," he told 102.5 ABC Perth. The member being replaced in the by-election, former Labor MP Paul Papalia, said he understood it was "enticing to have a whinge and complain about things", but no solutions had been offered. "I hope people recognise we've had good, solid government in Western Australia. It's the best state in the country. You don't want to jeopardise that," he said. Lessons to be learned The responses capture the two messages Labor has been trying to stick to when it comes to One Nation: condemning the party, while sympathising with the pressures facing its supporters. The risk is the condemnation is louder and pushes them further into One Nation's arms. One Nation's WA leader, Rod Caddies, accused Labor of running a "ridiculous campaign" based on "smears" and "gutter politics". The effect of that will be one of the key lessons for Labor to take away from this campaign. For the Liberals, it will be an important guide as to whether they should work with One Nation to benefit from their preferences, or whether they too need to attack. That's what the Liberal MP in the overlapping federal seat, Andrew Hastie, believes as he prepares for a "dirty and nasty" fight. "We've got to focus on who we are as Liberals, and that is what we're doing," he told RN Breakfast. Given the party's precarious position already, it's an urgent question for the Liberals to find the answer to. If he doesn't find the right answer though, at least Zempilas might have another career change left in him. "I was in league footy," he laughed. "It wouldn't be that big a stretch." [Image text:] NDRYA RE GEORGI TRE TREE ROGER COOK ERDEGE Ryan Ro ertson