Kalshi odds are coming to Weather Channel forecasts with new partnership

Kalshi odds are coming to Weather Channel forecasts with new partnership The partnership will allow the Weather Company to display Kalshi’s odds for various weather events - Bookmark - CommentsGo to comments Kalshi, the popular prediction market website, is partnering with The Weather Company, which will see odds data added to forecasts among a host of other changes, the company announced Thursday. Bettors can use Kalshi to place wagers on nearly every aspect of life, from the outcome of a sporting event or election to what President Donald Trump will say during an address — and even the weather forecast. Kalshi’s partnership with The Weather Company, which runs weather.com and the Weather Channel app, will allow people to bet on the highest temperature in a city on a given day as well as other weather trends. The partnership will also allow The Weather Company to use Kalshi’s probability data across its app and website, displaying trades to show users how markets are pricing weather risk. Weather trading has become an increasingly popular topic on prediction markets such as Kalshi and its competitor, Polymarket. The total volume for Kalshi’s climate and weather vertical has grown 500 percent year over year, and will likely bring in $1.1 billion in trading volume this year, the company said. “Weather is one of the fastest-growing and most crucial categories at Kalshi because it affects everyone — from individuals and businesses to governments,” said Will Brackett, head of partnerships at Kalshi. “As prediction markets become a more valuable tool for understanding uncertainty, they offer a new lens to complement the trusted forecasting and expertise The Weather Company delivers every day. We’re proud to partner with the world’s most respected brand in weather to help people make sense of the world around them,” Brackett added. These markets allow users to place bets on hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes and other catastrophic events — raising concern from some who criticize the ability to turn a natural disaster into financial gain. For example, a bet on a prediction market about a Category 4 hurricane making landfall in Florida that trades at 30 cents means that traders see about a 30 percent chance of the event happening, according to NerdWallet. While these bets may seem like a way to predict the weather, the number comes from people buying or selling contracts — a term for the wager — not from the actual weather forecast. Weather can be difficult to bet on because conditions can change at the drop of a hat. Betting on the weather and natural disasters also raises ethical questions. “It seems just particularly ghoulish to bet on these catastrophic natural hazards in which lives and property are lost in the same sort of dashboard that you might bet on ‘When will Taylor Swift release her next album’ or ‘Who will win the World Cup?’” Jamie Pietruska, a history professor at Rutgers University, who is writing a book about weather capitalism and gambling, told NerdWallet. “It’s this kind of casualization of catastrophe.” There have also been at least two instances of bettors actually trying to alter the weather being forecasted in order to win a bet. Two times this past April, the temperature reading at Charles De Gaulle Airport in Paris, France, jumped without explanation. These instances happened at the same time as two bets with massive winnings of $14,000 and $21,000 were placed on Polymarket. Several crypto outlets and trader publications speculated that a hairdryer or other device could have been used to create a false temperature reading at the temperature sensor at the airport. However, the claims remain unverified. These incidents have raised questions among critics about the potential for more nefarious tampering. Some worry that wildfire markets could lead bettors to commit arson or otherwise interfere with efforts to contain a fire, just to make a quick buck. Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket currently have an active wildfire market, but Polymarket previously allowed users to bet on the August 2025 fires in Los Angeles, with over $1.2 million wagered across markets. Democratic lawmakers have recently sounded the alarm about the risks associated with betting on wildfires, as prediction markets boom in the U.S. “Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” a group of nine Democratic senators said in a letter sent to Michael Selig, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, earlier this month. “There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful,” the letter read. A Kalshi spokesperson told The Independent earlier this month that it does not allow betting on wildfires “because they create perverse incentives.” Amid increased backlash last month over allowing users to bet on wildfires, a Polymarket spokesperson told CNN that “People turn to the news for commentary and they come to Polymarket for information.” “While we are not blind to the risks, removing these markets does not prevent a tragedy but makes the most accurate information less accessible to the people who need it most,” the spokesperson added. Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies Comments