Alcaraz favored at US Open with Sinner injured

The return of Carlos Alcaraz and the absence of Jannik Sinner has had a significant influence on US Open betting futures as the world's best tennis players descend on Flushing Meadows. Alcaraz, the reigning US Open champion, is +250 to retain his title at the 2026 tournament, according to DraftKings odds as of midday Thursday. That makes him the favorite for the men's field, but perhaps not at the level bettors have come to expect in recent years. Just after Alcaraz announced he would play, he was assigned +160 odds, while Sinner was -125. Then, when Sinner announced he would miss the tournament due to injury a few days later, Alcaraz shortened to +140 -- but bettors and bookmakers alike are skeptical of how Alcaraz will look in his return from a lengthy injury leave. "Alcaraz hasn't played a tour-level singles match since April, so there are still fitness doubts around him; otherwise, he would have been odds on," John Mitchell, a trader at Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN over email. Theoretically, that opens the doors for a player not named Alcaraz or Sinner to win the tournament, and Alexander Zverev, who won his first grand slam title at the 2026 French Open, would initially appear to be the logical next option. The German national is a second-best +300 on DraftKings US Open odds board, a slight shortening from his +320 before Thursday's draw and a notable improvement from the +450 he showed prior to Sinner's withdrawal. However, bookmakers say the action on Zverev has been minimal, or at least not enough to cause much liability. Instead, the public is gravitating towards exciting upstarts in the middle range of pricing like Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar (both 12-1), according to DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello. "I think [Zverev] plays a good game of tennis, but the bettors have never been in love with him," Avello told ESPN. "They're going a little bit down, not too far down the pack, but looking at a couple of newer names with guys that have good game that maybe could sneak in there if Alcaraz isn't right, because if Alcaraz isn't right, it's totally wide open." As far as the American men go, Ben Shelton has seen his odds improve in recent weeks to a fourth-best +900 and is getting some attention from bettors, but not to the level of being a liability. According to Mitchell, Learner Tien (60-1) has garnered a solid number of wagers and is now Caesars largest liability for straight bets. On the women's side, Aryna Sabalenka leads the way at +320, with Coco Gauff creeping up to a second-best +500 just ahead of Iga Swiatek at +550, per DraftKings lines. Unlike the men's game, the women's division has experienced more pronounced parity in recent years and bettors are accordingly spreading the wealth, according to oddsmakers. In particular, sportsbook customers are targeting American players like Gauff, Jessica Pegula (12-1), Amanda Anisimova (16-1) and Madison Keys (50-1). "The US players are taking, I'd say, more action in this as compared to the men's side," said BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini. "When you get to 20-1 in the future book, they all have a good amount of action basically on all of them. So that probably speaks a lot to how that field is a lot more condensed and probably a lot more potential for someone in that range to win versus on the men's side." One other name to keep an eye on: Alexandra Eala. The Filipino phenom was over 100-1 to win the US Open two months ago, and has shortened all the way to 28-1 at DraftKings after capturing her first professional title at the 2026 Washington Open. Caesars notes that Eala is its largest liability on the women's side.