Using data to help wheat growers adapt to unpredictable weather

Using data to help wheat growers adapt to unpredictable weather Lisa Lock Scientific Editor Andrew Zinin Chief Editor For generations, wheat planting has followed predictable seasonal patterns. But this year, unseasonably warm weather in March and April accelerated wheat growth, pushing the crop into a vulnerable growth stage when widespread freezing temperatures hit. As weather becomes less predictable, choosing the right planting date has become more difficult. For wheat growers in Virginia, where tight margins already make every decision count, getting the timing right is a matter of survival. "Wheat's low market price and high input costs have meant that Virginia's wheat acreage has declined in recent years," said Joseph Oakes, Eastern Virginia Agricultural Research and Extension Center (AREC) superintendent and Extension specialist. As historical weather data show a shifting climate, tools to determine ideal planting dates are vital for growers to ensure enough warm days for sufficient yield while minimizing the potential for late-spring freezes. "Research shows that plant development in the fall contributes to almost 90% of grain yield," Oakes said. "Leaving time for that growth is one of the most important things you can do for high wheat yields." Research led by Oakes and Virginia Cooperative Extension agents Robbie Longest and Turner Minx offers growers a clearer path forward. Working with farmers in King William, New Kent, Richmond and Westmoreland counties, the team compared four planting dates, from mid-October through November, using drone-based remote sensing to monitor crop growth throughout the season. The drone-based methods were developed and validated as part of a USDA multistate grant to help farmers optimize fertilizer application in winter wheat and efficiently collect crop and field data. In this project, the team applied these monitoring and management technologies to evaluate planting dates for regional wheat growers. Data that supports planting decisions The research showed how planting date can influence both yield and vulnerability to spring freezes. Planting before Nov. 1 showed no reduction in yield, giving growers confidence to shift planting dates later into October without sacrificing production. That timing gives crops enough warm weather to establish before winter while reducing the chance they will mature too early and be damaged by spring freezes. By contrast, wheat planted in November had less time to develop before winter, resulting in reduced growth and lower yields. "It's critical to plant early enough to be established before winter, but not so early that advanced crops risk a devastating spring freeze," Oakes said. "Growers are getting squeezed on both sides: Prices are down and inputs are up, so anything that maximizes yields will benefit their operation." Depending on planting date, growers could see gains of up to 24 bushels per acre, which translates to more than $100 per acre. Putting data into growers' hands The team is also working with the Virginia Grain Producers Association (VGPA) on tools to make findings available to growers. "We want producers and farmers to be as educated as they can before they decide to put something in their fields hoping it works," said Taylor Hubbard, a representative of the VGPA. To connect farmers with actionable findings, the Eastern Virginia AREC helped VGPA create the Medius.RE Trial Data platform. The tool provides local and regional data on wheat, barley and corn variety trials, giving growers access to information on planting dates, as well as disease pressure, performance and yield potential. Findings were also shared at the Virginia Small Grain Field Day, cohosted by VGPA and the Eastern Virginia AREC, and distributed through Virginia Cooperative Extension. The study is part of broader research in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences examining how crops respond to increasingly unpredictable weather. Other researchers are investigating frost mitigation, cold-stress tolerance, and bloom timing in tree fruit crops to reduce losses from late-season freezes. "Across the college, researchers are working to help agricultural producers manage weather-related risks and make informed decisions," said Mary Burrows, associate dean of research and director of the Virginia Agricultural Experiment Station. "Whether we're studying wheat, tree fruit or other crops, the goal is to provide research-based information and practical tools that help farmers improve productivity, reduce risk and strengthen the resilience of Virginia agriculture." Provided by Virginia Tech