'Britain exposed by Trump's war on Iran folly as mission creep sets in'

As the US and Iran exchange missiles for the first time in weeks the war has descended into a dreadful and repetitive period of “mission creep.” This describes a deeply worrying time during a conflict which is a gradual and unplanned expansion of a mission going well-beyond its original goal. That goal was to get rid of the Iranian nuclear threat, to eradicate the Iranian missile armoury, to help oppressed Iranian and possible regime change - with none of these aims achieved. And the previously unthinkable truth - that it may rumble on for months, even years - is now increasingly likely, with awful implications for the region and even the UK. The US claims it opened fire on Iranian military installations on Larak Island, a strategic point in the disputed Strait of Hormuz, to avoid more mining of the waterway. Iran claims it fired back on a US base in Jordan because the US killed and wounded several people on the island. But by its own admission US Central Command says it was taking out rocket launchers, meaning it was likely doing so to protect its fleet. That suggests the US military is now simply “mowing the lawn,” launching strikes to protect itself in a bid to cut down the threat as it appears. The danger of this is that US forces are now having to engage Iran merely to protect themselves against attack and it appears not to be working. It comes at immense and repetitive cost in missiles and in the lives of US and other forces stationed in the region. But with little sign of the war ending it is putting junior partners of America, such as the UK, in increasing danger from Iran’s proxies who are at risk from revenge strikes. And the UK, even though it hosts tens of thousands of American troops on bases guarding and flying bombers and fighter jets, can no longer rely on the US as much as it did before. Before the war, experts suggested America’s stockpiles of defensive missiles such as Patriots and Thaad and offensive weapons such as Tomahawks were below par. Now they are depleted to a dangerous level, one that could even without a war, take years to get up to a secure level once more. Just a brief snapshot of the missile cost shows how America, once guardian of western democracies, has expended its weaponry. Before the war the US had 3,100 offensive Tomahawks but it has ploughed through more than 1,000 and it would take almost four years to get back to that pre-war level. These cost a staggering near £2 million each. Also prior to this conflict the US had 2, 830 defensive Patriots but it has fired an estimated 1,400 since the conflict began, in protecting its troops and the surrounding region. It will take more than three years just to get back to the pre-war level. And these cost around almost £3 million a unit. It is no surprise that Ukraine is now desperately short of US-supplied defensive munitions and vulnerable to ballistic missile attack from Russia. It is vital for the UK’s security that Ukraine prevails in its own war, holding back Russian forces from acting against NATO in eastern Europe. This Iran war mission creep is likely to further deplete the US of weapons in the coming months even as Trump orders manufacturers to increase production at a rapid rate. Millions of pounds are being expended to shoot down incoming Iranian drones which cost a few thousand pounds - so Iran, although devastated economically, is beating the US in costs.