Heat offseason recap and early-season preview: Can Miami contend with this roster?

The Miami Heat have never shied away from chasing -- and landing -- superstars. Shaquille O'Neal in 2004. LeBron James and Chris Bosh in 2010. Jimmy Butler III in 2019. And this offseason, two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, acquired via trade with the Milwaukee Bucks. Those previous blockbuster summers produced NBA Finals appearances within two seasons. Can Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, coach Erik Spoelstra and Miami follow suit? While the Heat continue to bolster the supporting cast, their roster might not yet be equipped to transform from a play-in team to a title threat. So what will 2026-27 bring for one of the Eastern Conference's most intriguing franchises? ESPN's staff of experts is looking back at the offseason and taking an early look at the 2026-27 season for all 30 teams, with 30 pieces -- one for every team -- rolling out each weekday through Sept. 18. We're answering the biggest looming questions, evaluating X factors and much more for all 30 teams. Quick links: Roster | Depth chart | Transactions More Heat coverage | More NBA Offseason at a glance Key additions: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Klay Thompson, Bobby Portis, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nick Richards Key retentions: Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio Key subtractions: Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis Heat president Pat Riley landed the superstar he'd been searching for since LeBron James left Miami in 2016. Antetokounmpo is in the fold, and Miami is ready to contend for another title with the two-time MVP. Antetokounmpo is just as motivated to win his second title and remind everyone that he can be the best player in the league. In the trade, the Heat gave up key players such as Herro, Ware and Jaquez and did not bring back Powell in free agency. They landed Thompson to a two-year, $13 million deal after the four-time champion sharpshooter worked out a buyout with the Dallas Mavericks. Miami also added Portis and Hardaway, but the team is still looking to bolster the roster around Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. -- Ohm Youngmisuk Zach Kram grades the Klay signing: B- Thompson's on-court value no longer matches his name value, as a future Hall of Famer who was a centerpiece of the NBA's last great dynasty. There's a reason, after all, that the Mavericks were amenable to buying Thompson out of the last year of his contract to pave his path to Miami. He is now 36 years old and nowhere near the sort of two-way star he was at his peak. Instead, the five-time All-Star is now a well below-average player. But Thompson will bring one important skill to Miami that the Heat are currently lacking: Even as he has declined, he has remained an elite shooter. Thompson has made at least 38% of his 3-pointers on high volume in every season of his career, and even coming off the bench last season, he ranked among the top 20 players in made 3s per game. Incidentally, Thompson ranked second in total 3s from a reserve last season -- one spot behind Hardaway, his new teammate on Miami's perimeter. -- Kram What we learned over the past few months From Ben Golliver's offseason lessons piece: Riley's still got it. Landing Antetokounmpo meant taking on his injury risks and parting with four players and three first-round picks, but it gives Miami an MVP-caliber cornerstone. Less than two years ago, Riley was engaged in an ugly standoff with Jimmy Butler III over the All-Star forward's desire for a contract extension. Riley held firm, didn't grant the extension and eventually shipped Butler to the Warriors for an unspectacular return. While Miami took a step back without Butler and missed the playoffs last season, it's now in position to leap forward with Antetokounmpo and Adebayo. -- Golliver The big question: Does Miami have enough surrounding its All-NBA frontcourt? Adding Thompson, one of the best shooters in NBA history, was a huge boost, but the Heat can still use another scorer, more shooting and another playmaker to help space the floor and make things easier for Antetokounmpo and Adebayo. Also, how will the Heat offense operate with the two defensive pillars? Coach Erik Spoelstra says adapting the offense will be made easier due to Antetokounmpo and Adebayo's competitiveness and desire to win. But it remains to be seen whether the Heat have enough shooting and scoring. If anyone can figure out the new puzzle in Miami, it will be Spoelstra. -- Youngmisuk Basketball Power Index rank: No. 10 Here are the predicted Net Points per 100 possessions for the Heat's top seven players for the 2026-27 season. This Heat team is an experiment in surrounding a great player (Antetokounmpo) with several mostly marginal players, an exercise Milwaukee conducted last season. The Bucks' prediction last year was for 46 wins and they actually won 32. And the Heat wins prediction for this year is ... 46. -- Dean Oliver Read about how Net Points works here. Biggest X factor F Bobby Portis Much of the focus on Miami's roster holes has centered on the team's backcourt and shooting, but an even bigger hole might exist in its frontcourt. Portis, who joined the Heat in the Antetokounmpo trade, is one of only two reserve bigs on the Heat, along with Richards, who signed as a free agent in late August. Antetokounmpo rarely plays as a small-ball center anymore and Richards regularly posts subpar on/off numbers, so the Heat might have to rely on Portis as Adebayo's primary backup. He remains an effective offensive player, making 46% of his 3-pointers last season -- but his rim protection and overall defense might not be up to Spoelstra's standard. -- Kram Betting insight from our expert Bet to make ahead of the season: Antetokounmpo to win MVP (+1200) Antetokounmpo finished in the top four in every MVP vote from 2018-19 through 2024-25, winning twice. Last season, he played a career-low 36 games as he battled injury. If Antetokounmpo is healthy enough to play his typical minutes, he will have a massive on-court impact -- the Bucks were 14.4 points per 100 possessions better with Antetokounmpo on the court last season. And if the Heat return to top-3 contention in the East, Antetokounmpo will be among the MVP favorites. Those are a lot of ifs, but with 12-to-1 odds, Antetokounmpo is the rare MVP long shot with a tangible path to the award. -- André Snellings Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publication.