September CFP superlatives: What to watch in college football's first month

Happy September, college football fans. September brings the official start of this year's 12-team College Football Playoff race, the debut of 33 new head coaches and introductions to teams that look entirely different after more than 3,000 scholarship FBS players entered the transfer portal. What else is new? No, really. There are some tweaks to the CFP system. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot if it finishes in the top 12. The Power 4 conference champions are also guaranteed bids, along with the highest-ranked team from the Group of 6. It no longer has to be a Group of 6 conference champion. And on Selection Day, the No. 1 seed gets to select its CFP quarterfinal bowl. It all begins this month, so we've got the ultimate guide of September superlatives to get you ready, from key nonconference games that will impact Selection Day to players who will have CFP-defining moments, sleeper teams, and of course ... bold CFP predictions, including which conference will hoist the trophy Jan. 25 in Las Vegas. Like any normal college football fan, you might disagree. And so it begins. Jump to: September noncon games Questions | First-year coaches Storylines | Players Sleepers | Predictions September nonconference games with Selection Day impact 1. Ohio State at Texas, Sept. 12 (7:30 p.m. ET/ABC): A win against a top-five CFP opponent will carry a lot of weight in the selection committee meeting room. The head-to-head tiebreaker will be integral to the seeding process. The winner could also have a huge résumé booster if the loser goes on to win its conference, which is a realistic scenario for both teams. The loser won't be eliminated because it lost this game, but it will put more pressure on that team to avoid what happened to three-loss Texas last year -- a bad loss at Florida, plus narrow wins against unranked opponents Kentucky and Mississippi State helped keep the Longhorns out of the playoff. 2. Boise State at Oregon, Sept. 5 (3:30 p.m. ET/CBS): The Broncos are now in the Pac-12, and they remain a front-runner for the Group of 6 playoff spot. If Oregon can beat the eventual Pac-12 champs, that would be a critical head-to-head win for seeding purposes, but how this game is won or lost matters significantly to Boise State's playoff hopes. In 2024, the last time Boise State went to Oregon, the Broncos lost 37-34, but the committee members were so impressed by their performance in a close game it played a role in the Broncos' top-10 ranking. 3. Oklahoma at Michigan, Sept. 12 (Noon/Fox): These are your September bubble teams before the bubble actually exists. And if they're in a close race for the last playoff spot in December, this head-to-head result will be the difference. The Sooners have the second-most difficult schedule in the country according to ESPN Analytics, and have less than a 50% chance to beat Michigan, Georgia, Texas and Texas A&M. If OU is going to return to the CFP, it needs to win in Ann Arbor. Michigan is also already in must-win mode because the Wolverines face the big three: Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State. The winner will have a top-25 nonconference win, plus much-needed margin for error. 4. Clemson at LSU, Sept. 5 (7:30 p.m. ET/ABC): If Clemson is going to rebound under coach Dabo Swinney, going 2-0 against the SEC with wins against LSU and South Carolina is the way to do it. Last year, Clemson's loss to LSU was part of a surprising three-loss September, but a win against Lane Kiffin's new team in the season opener would be a resounding statement for Clemson. For LSU, a win against Clemson should be more valuable this season in the committee meeting room. 5. Louisville vs. Ole Miss, Sept. 6 (7:30 p.m. ET/ABC): The Power 4 conference champs are guaranteed spots in the playoff, and Louisville has a 7% chance to win the ACC and the fourth-highest chance to reach the ACC championship game (18.5%). If it doesn't, though, a season-opening win against the Rebels could help Louisville get in with the ACC champion. With the exception of SMU, Louisville might not face another ranked opponent all season. Its strength of schedule is No. 58 in the country. Without a statement win or an ACC title, Louisville will be outside the field. Ole Miss, though, has the No. 5 schedule in the country. The Rebels could earn a top-25 nonconference win that could help give them a leg up on their competition. Questions for the committee 1. How (and when) will head-to-head results be evaluated and applied? This was one of the most confusing and controversial parts of the selection committee's protocol last year, as Miami's head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener wasn't applied until Selection Day, after neither team had played. It's one of several tiebreakers the committee has used since the inception of the CFP, but it has been applied differently in different circumstances over the years. 2. How much will a ninth SEC conference opponent factor into strength of schedule? More two- and three-loss SEC teams are expected this fall after the conference added a ninth league game to the schedules. Those within the SEC remain skeptical that the committee will reward its teams with multiple losses for their schedule strength and instead favor teams with fewer losses from other conferences that faced weaker lineups. 3. How many games can Notre Dame afford to lose? Under a new rule, the Irish are guaranteed a spot in the playoff if they finish in the selection committee's top 12. How much margin for error does Notre Dame have? According to ESPN Analytics, Notre Dame has the No. 56 toughest schedule, which means it probably doesn't have much wiggle room. The committee would consider who it lost to and how, but it would be hard to justify a three-loss Notre Dame team in the playoff. A two-loss résumé, though, will be much more difficult to debate. 4. How much will a weak nonconference lineup hurt teams such as Penn State? Athletic directors across the country are often puzzled by how to schedule their programs for the CFP. The Nittany Lions don't have a Power 4 nonconference opponent (Marshall, Temple and Buffalo). Different committees (members rotate every three years) have evaluated this inconsistently. One season it hurt the Hoosiers. The next it didn't matter. PSU's schedule is ranked No. 62 and doesn't include conference foes Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon. 5. Can the ACC and Big 12 each get more than one team in the field? There's a reason these leagues are in favor of playoff expansion. Their conference champions are guaranteed spots, but what about the runner-up? Can BYU and Texas Tech both get in? Not if the computers are correct and the SEC has a 66% chance to get four or more teams in and the Big Ten has a 76% chance to get three or more teams in -- and Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot if it's in the top 12, and so is the highest-ranked Group of 6 team. It's not impossible for the ACC and Big 12, but it remains difficult. First-year coaches needing strong September starts for a CFP run 1. Lane Kiffin, LSU: It starts with Clemson in the opener, but there might not be a bigger game this season than LSU at Ole Miss on Sept. 19. Kiffin was hired to win the SEC and compete for a national title now, and September will quickly reveal how realistic that is. A week after facing his former team in what will likely be the most hostile environment of the season, Kiffin will face another preseason top-10 team in Texas A&M on Sept. 26. 2. Pete Golding, Ole Miss: Golding took over for Kiffin in November after Kiffin bolted for LSU and did an admirable job leading the Rebels to a CFP semifinal under less-than-ideal coaching circumstances. This is his first full season, though, as head coach, and he returns key skill players, including quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy. With games against Louisville, LSU and a trip to the Swamp, September will go a long way in determining whether Golding has another playoff team. 3. Kyle Whittingham, Michigan: If Whittingham can go 4-0 in September with wins against Oklahoma and Iowa, the Wolverines could be undefeated heading into the Oct. 24 home game against Indiana. Even if Michigan loses that game to Indiana, the Wolverines would still have a realistic chance at being a one-loss team heading into November and the selection committee's first ranking of the season. To be on the committee's radar when it matters most, though, requires two top-25 home wins in September. 4. Jon Sumrall, Florida: The Gators can't escape September without facing some SEC heat, traveling to Auburn on Sept. 19 before returning home to host Ole Miss on Sept. 26. All three programs have first-year head coaches trying to make early statements, but Sumrall arguably has the most work to do after the Gators went 4-8 last season. According to ESPN Analytics, Florida will lose six SEC games, including to Auburn and Ole Miss. If the Gators can win those games, though, they have a great chance of doubling their win total from a year ago and changing the narrative heading into the heart of SEC play. 5. Morgan Scalley, Utah: With Whittingham at Michigan, Scalley is the face of the Utes, and he has two respectable nonconference games looming in September to make an early statement. On Sept. 12, the Utes host Arkansas, a struggling SEC team with another first-year head coach, and they're at Iowa State on Sept. 26. While neither opponent is a CFP juggernaut, they are both tricky teams the Utes need to beat if they're going to be taken seriously by the committee this year. ESPN's FPI projects Utah will be undefeated heading into its Nov. 7 game against BYU. If Utah is undefeated heading into the first CFP ranking, that BYU game will be critical in helping to determine the Big 12's top playoff contenders. CFP storylines that begin now 1. Can Sark lead Texas to the national championship? Since he was hired as head coach in 2021, Steve Sarkisian has lost 12 games in AP-ranked matchups. That's tied with Penn State for the most during that span. He's 1-6 against Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State, and 3-12 against teams in the top 10 of the final AP poll. So yes, the team he has overfloweth with talent. It's good enough to match up against any team in the country. The question is if Sarkisian can parlay it into wins against other national title contenders. 2. Is Texas Tech still the team to beat in the Big 12? Transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby's Tech career ended before it even started, and the preseason polls and computers still say the Red Raiders are the team to beat with Will Hammond running the offense. BYU, though, might have something to say about that. Or Utah. Or Arizona. Or Houston, when the Cougars host Texas Tech on Sept. 18, a Friday night. Arizona comes to Lubbock on Halloween for what should be a real thriller. ESPN's FPI gives Texas Tech more than a 50% chance to win every game, but the Red Raiders don't play BYU during the regular season. They are the most likely matchup, though, in the Big 12 title game. 3. Are the defending national champs starting underrated? After winning the school's first national title, Indiana was ranked No. 6 in the Associated Press preseason poll, the highest preseason ranking in program history. The Hoosiers aren't the only reigning national champs to be outside the preseason top five the following season in the CFP era (2024 Michigan was No. 9, and 2020 LSU was No. 6). Indiana has the third-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (37.8%) behind Ohio State (57.5%) and Oregon (44.3%). The biggest question is how the Hoosiers will fare with transfer quarterback Josh Hoover, who is replacing Fernando Mendoza. 4. Will the Big Ten continue its national dominance? The computers think it's going to be close -- like, really close. According to ESPN Research, the SEC has a 39% chance to win the national title this year, followed by the Big Ten at 38%. Ohio State has the best chance (17%) to extend the league's streak to four straight national titles, but Texas isn't far behind at 13%. 5. Can Alabama make a deep playoff run under Kalen DeBoer? According to ESPN Analytics, Alabama has a 41% chance to reach the playoff -- ninth best in the FBS. The selection committee gave the three-loss Tide the benefit of the brand last year when the group didn't bump Alabama after one of the worst performances in a conference title game in CFP history. Even if the group rewards Alabama again, the Tide are going to have to play significantly better to advance to a semifinal. Players/position groups that impact CFP race 1. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State: This summer, Smith confirmed it will be his last season as a Buckeye before turning pro, and he's on a mission to leave with some hardware. The Week 2 trip to Texas will start the playoff race for both teams, and if Smith can win those 50-50 balls and lead the Buckeyes to a road win against a top-five team, Ohio State will take an early lead in the playoff race. 2. Arch Manning, QB, Texas: Over the final 10 games last season, Manning put together one of the most productive stretches by any quarterback in the country. He finished in the top 15 in the FBS in passing/rushing touchdowns, QBR and touchdown/interception ratio. If Manning can pick up where he left off -- and do it against the Ohio State defense and again Sept. 26 at Tennessee -- Texas will make an early statement to the CFP selection committee. 3. Malachi Toney, WR, Miami: Toney didn't drop any of his 141 targets last year -- not one -- and it was the second-most targets by any player with zero drops in a season in the past decade. He should be a go-to option again, this time for transfer quarterback Darian Mensah. ESPN's FPI gives Miami more than a 50% chance to win each game -- except for Nov. 7 at Notre Dame, where the Irish have a 70.6% chance to win. Toney scored against the Irish last year, and he'll need to do it again for another critical head-to-head tiebreaker in the committee meeting room. 4. Notre Dame's secondary: Speaking of Toney, Notre Dame's defense will be the biggest challenge of the season for Miami's offense. Leonard Moore gets most of the ink, but collectively, this might be the best defensive back unit in the country. Tae Johnson is an elite safety who had 48 tackles and four interceptions last year in his first season as a starter, Colorado transfer DJ McKinney had 95 total tackles and four interceptions in two seasons with the Buffaloes, and Adon Shuler is a team captain with two interceptions and two fumble recoveries in 2025. If they can come up big at home against the Canes in November, it will matter on Selection Day. 5. Alabama's offensive line: It's impossible to forget the Tide's minus-3 rushing yards against Georgia in the SEC championship game last year. Alabama ranked 119th in the FBS in rushes per game (31.1), 125th in rushing yards per game (104.1) and 126th in yards per rush (3.35). If Alabama is going to survive a midseason stretch that includes Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M and a trip to LSU, it's going to have to be able to run the ball. CFP sleeper teams 1. Penn State: The Nittany Lions' schedule is so manageable that it might just mean coach Matt Campbell earns a CFP bid in his first season in Happy Valley. ESPN's FPI projects Penn State to win every game but two -- at Michigan on Oct. 17 and at Washington on Nov. 7. If the Nittany Lions are undefeated heading into Ann Arbor, though, and they can earn a win in the Big House, their CFP chances will skyrocket. 2. Clemson: The Tigers were embarrassed by last year's 7-6 finish that included a 4-4 record in conference play. The season opener at LSU will be an early indicator as to how much better Clemson will be, but it's one of just two games ESPN's FPI projects Clemson to lose, along with Oct. 3 at Miami. If Clemson can pull an upset in either of those games, it will change the narrative and push Clemson back into the playoff conversation. 3. SMU: The ACC is cluttered with potential, and SMU has something Clemson does not -- a proven quarterback in Kevin Jennings. The Mustangs (26.8%) have the second-best chance to reach the ACC championship game behind Miami (71.7%). SMU has a tricky opener at Florida State on Labor Day and is at Louisville on Sept. 19 -- two ACC road trips in the first three weeks that will help shape the conference title game. 4. Louisville: The Cardinals were one of two teams to beat Miami last year -- on the road on a Friday night in October. This year Louisville avoids the Canes on the regular-season schedule, but a win in the season opener against Ole Miss can get the committee's attention early. It also increases the chances of a perfect season, as that's the only game on Louisville's schedule that ESPN's FPI projects as a loss. 5. Kansas State: The Wildcats could be one of the biggest surprises of the season under first-year coach Collin Klein, a 2012 Heisman Trophy finalist, K-State alum and former Wildcats offensive coordinator. With starting quarterback Avery Johnson returning along with running back Joe Jackson, the offense could flourish under Klein. K-State avoids Texas Tech, BYU and Utah on its conference schedule, and the nonconference games include home games against Nicholls, Washington State and Tulane. CFP predictions 1. At least one team in the field will make the playoff for the first time. 2. The Big Ten will earn two top-four seeds. 3. The Big 12 and ACC will earn one bid each. 4. The SEC will snap the Big Ten's streak of three straight national titles. 5. The G6 representative will still be a conference winner -- even though it doesn't have to be.