30-plus player notes you must read before your draft

Welcome to Labor Day weekend, the busiest time on the fantasy football draft calendar. Don't challenge me, as I have the power of ESPN Research to back that up! Some of you might not have put in your homework because it seemed so far away (kind of like your humanities course in college). But now it's final exam time, and you didn't study. And yes, I still have that same recurring dream. I know, there is so much more we could talk about, but I wanted to give you the CliffsNotes to get you started for a great draft weekend. And one last thing, if you play in a fantasy league with somebody who provides fantasy analysis for a living -- maybe ask him or her if there was any breaking news before the draft. I know that seems hyper specific, and it's meant to be because my friend didn't do that last weekend. But still, just do a quick news search while you're hitting the charcuterie board before the draft. (Also not to brag, but I spelled charcuterie correctly on the first try. My first win of the season.) Here are some fast facts (and a little opinion) to help you get through your draft prep. Jump ahead Quarterback notes | Running back notes Wide receiver notes | Tight end notes Quarterback notes • Malik Willis is the modern-day Matt Flynn (Google him, kids), turning one great start into a lucrative free agent contract with the Miami Dolphins. But the reason you should like Willis is his rushing ability. He had 60 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in his lone start for the Green Bay Packers in 2025 -- which was about 60 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns more than Matthew Stafford. And don't worry, it doesn't seem like there is a Russell Wilson there to take Willis' gig. Again, Google these references. It was a wild time. • Drake Maye was sacked a career-high 68 times in 2025, including the playoffs. Even with offensive line help from first-round pick Caleb Lomu and free agency signing Alijah Vera-Tucker, I'm not saying you avoid Maye altogether. He's really good, and the New England Patriots went out and got A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. But I've seen him fly off the board as high as QB2 ahead of Joe Burrow for instance. Do what you want, but I love other options such as Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence, who have much better value later in drafts. • Aaron Rodgers ranked last in air yards per attempt (6.0) in 2025. Michael Pittman Jr. ranked 68th in average depth of target last year. Sounds like a great match. For Pittman, I wouldn't touch Rodgers this season. Maybe he can recapture the magic with Mike McCarthy, but this looks like one of those reboots they should have never attempted. • Patrick Mahomes tore his left ACL/LCL in Week 15. He's expected to start Week 1 against the Denver Broncos. It's strange that his ADP puts him as a QB2. I mean, I don't normally draft two quarterbacks but would be willing to make an exception here. • Everyone loves CeeDee Lamb. They love George Pickens. What will it take for Dak Prescott to get the love from fantasy managers? He's going to outplay his ADP this year. He is currently the QB7 on ESPN, although anecdotally, I've seen him drop much further. Dak had 30 passing touchdowns last season, but I'm projecting him closer to 40 this year, which would land him closer to the top three. • I want to believe Geno Smith will be great for Garrett Wilson. But Smith was one of the worst quarterbacks in terms of air yards per completion (4.3), down there with Bo Nix (4.8), Bryce Young (4.8) and Tua Tagovailoa (4.7). You could reason Wilson gives him a chance to improve that number. But are you willing to risk drafting Wilson in the hope that Smith gets better? • Baker Mayfield had a 16-2 TD-INT ratio from Weeks 1 through 10. It was 10-9 from Weeks 11 through 19. Now if you want to go with narratives, a motivated Mayfield going for a new contract could regain that form. Or without Mike Evans, he could be what he was at the end of the season. If WR Emeka Egbuka performs like he did in the first half of the season, that could be a big help to Mayfield. Ebuka averaged 89 yards and scored five touchdowns in the first five weeks of the season. • Jared Goff has led the NFL in passing yards per game (270), games with 300-plus passing yards (17) and passing touchdowns (101). He's not being drafted as a QB1. Is it the lack of running? Because it's something that goes against Stafford, too. Make sure you check your league's scoring settings, however. Because a quarterback such as Goff (and Stafford) are much more valuable in leagues where you get six points for a passing touchdown. • The Philadelphia Eagles lost five of their last eight games. People are fading Jalen Hurts. Anybody think part of the problem could have been the injury to Lane Johnson? Hurts could be due for a huge bounce back as the former All-Pro tackle goes on his retirement tour. You're getting Hurts at a discount. Running back notes This is a good time to bring this up as we get into non-QBs: Please check your league rules before the draft. Do you start three receivers or two? Do you have one flex spot or two? This will impact your decisions. I should also tell you, make sure you get your RB2 before you exit the fourth round. That might even be too late. We've gone from Zero RB to Hero RB to fear o' RB if you try to get too cute. • Christian McCaffrey has fallen off severely every time he has had 400 touches in a season. Guess what? He had more than 400 touches last year. It would be wise to stay away, like my guy Daniel Dopp has advocated, but I can't stay away from the thought that he's going to end up being the 49ers most-targeted pass catcher this season. George Kittle is working toward being available for the 49ers, while his teammate De'Zhaun Stribling is another player fantasy managers are looking at. But in this sense, I'm taking the known quantity and rolling with McCaffrey. Even if this might end up costing me. • Kenneth Walker III is the No.1 guy for the Kansas City Chiefs, which opens the door for Jadarian Price in Seattle. His ADP has risen over the summer for good reason. He's going to be the guy before Zach Charbonnet returns from the PUP list that will force him to miss at least four games. • Derrick Henry is the only player in NFL history with 1,500-plus rushing yards and 15-plus rushing touchdowns in a season at age 30 or older. Are you ready to run it back? Field Yates says so. I'm kind of into it as well. • Chase Brown is one of four players with 2,000-plus rushing yards and 750-plus receiving yards since 2024. The others? Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson and De'Von Achane. So yeah, not bad company! • Speaking of De'Von Achane, I can talk myself into him being a huge risk because the Dolphins are going to be miserable. But I can also talk myself into him being a great value because there is nobody else to trust. And then I can see Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator and instantly regret taking Achane at his ADP (right at the end of the first round). • You need to put more respect on James Cook III. Maybe not you, but your friends who are letting him slide until late in the first. The Bills have run on 49.3% of offensive plays since 2024 (fourth highest in the NFL). The Bills led the NFL with 32.2 carries with 159.7 rushing yards per game in 2025. • David Montgomery has 33 rushing touchdowns since 2023 (sixth-highest total for a running back over that stretch). The Texans have had 34 rushing touchdowns since that time. • Travis Etienne Jr. led the Jacksonville Jaguars with 1,399 scrimmage yards and a 13-high scrimmage touchdowns in 2025. He's with the New Orleans Saints now. Bhayshul Tuten is expected to be the RB1 on a team that had 22 rushing touchdowns last season. I would even project the Jaguars to run the ball a bit more this season. The Jaguars' first pick in the 2026 NFL draft was TE Nate Boerkircher out of Texas A&M, which many saw as a reach. I saw this as an opportunity for the Jaguars to strengthen their rushing attack with multiple tight end sets. • RJ Harvey was eighth among NFL running backs with 47 receptions. His five receiving touchdowns for the Denver Broncos were the second-highest total in the league behind only CMC. • MarShawn Lloyd is seeing his ADP rise after the Josh Jacobs news. But Kaleb Johnson is getting a second chance with the team. I'm intrigued as a flyer in deeper leagues. What I'm trying to tell you is don't break the bank trying to get Jacobs' replacement. • I know it's easy to say Omarion Hampton will be the Achane of the Los Angeles Chargers with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel -- so that's exactly what I will do. I would take Hampton over Henry or Saquon Barkley. • We love Cam Skattebo for the reasons we, well, love Cam Skattebo. But he's so much more! Like when you liked Mick Foley for jumping off cages, but you don't realize he was a better wrestler than you gave him credit for. Did you know Skattebo had the second-most receptions for the Giants (24) from Weeks 1 through 8? Wide receiver notes • You might be excited about Carnell Tate this season, and I don't want to talk you out of that. But remember Wan'Dale Robinson signed a huge deal with the Titans. Robinson -- who played for new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll -- had 185 receptions from 2024-25, the seventh most in the NFL over that span. • I know we didn't trust Quentin Johnston before because he had trouble with drops in 2024 (seven of them, to be exact). But he was much better with the drops last season and had eight touchdowns. Could McDaniel unlock him in 2026? • Are we sleeping on Tre Tucker, who led the Raiders with 696 receiving yards last season? Yeah, probably. Break the bank for Brock Bowers. The Raiders have Bowers as the top pass catcher. I had been counting on Ashton Jeanty to step it up in this area. But who else can the Raiders rely on? I know, I'm supposed to answer that question. It's going to be Mike Washington Jr. He did have 28 receptions at Arkansas, where he averaged 8.1 yards per reception. The Raiders could use him as a receiver out of the backfield to help with the receiver deficiencies. • The Broncos are turning playcalling over to Davis Webb this season. That could be huge for new receiver Jaylen Waddle. Webb joked with reporters that Waddle will line up everywhere but on the offensive line. He even compared Waddle coming to Denver like Stefon Diggs going to Buffalo. We're going a little crazy with comparisons, and I don't want to do the whole "Waddle can be 2019 Michael Thomas for the Broncos" thing ... but I'm going to. • Tetairoa McMillan had 30.7% of his team's receiving yards last season. Not quite where Puka Nacua was during his rookie season (34.6), but more than Ja'Marr Chase (30.3). Tight end notes • The Bears have loaded up on offensive firepower, which is great for Caleb Williams. But it might drive you crazy trying to figure out who emerges from Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift, etc. I'd lock in on Colston Loveland, who had a massive 48 targets over his last four games (including the playoffs). Plus, Williams had a completion percentage of 74.3 when targeting Burden and Loveland. It was 52.8 for everyone else. • Kyle Pitts Sr. signed an extension in 2026. He had 928 receiving yards last year, the most since his rookie season, and tight ends have thrived under Kevin Stefanski. I'm ready to be hurt again by going after Pitts. • Trey McBride had 63 receptions for 644 yards and six receiving touchdowns while lined up in the slot last year, the highest in the NFL. What this means is that you're basically drafting a slot receiver (and the Cardinals top option) for a tight end designation. • Terrance Ferguson is worth a flier if you miss out on all of the elite-level tight ends this year. New Fergie could end up being the de facto Rams WR3, but with a tight end designation. • Michael Wilson (78 receptions for 1,006 yards and seven touchdowns) is the receiver you think Marvin Harrison Jr. is. But hey, I also can talk myself into drafting the former first-round pick.