College football best bets: How to bet Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan State and more

Week 1 of the 2026 college football is finally here, but that doesn't mean you should empty the bankroll. This week, it's better to go light and avoid spraying the board if you can. In fact, the first two weeks of the season are about evaluating continuity. I'm not looking at just who returns but whether these returning players make the team better or whether the new pieces amplify what's already there. My card has five wagers across three games. I'm testing whether pairing a side and a total in games where I have high conviction is something worth continuing, or whether it makes more sense to choose one and move on. You'll also notice an additional name on this weekly betting card column, Mark Zinno. My focus naturally lends toward totals, so adding his picks gives you more options and more flexibility to tweak the card based on what you like. After a 2-0 start last week, here's what we've got in Week 1. Odds by DraftKings and subject to change. Toledo at Michigan State UNDER 47 Toledo's situation is such an extreme case. The Rockets basically have a whole new program with 58 newcomers and just one returning starter. New coach Mike Jacobs brings a new scheme and new staff, along with 14 transfers who followed Jacobs from Mercer. All of that change comes while retaining a quarterback in John Alan Richter, a former backup for Toledo, who missed the back half of last season with an injury. Michigan State isn't exactly stacked either. Alessio Milivojevic returns after starting later in the season, and linebacker Jordan Hall comes back as the clear defensive anchor. That's real, but MSU still lost both starting running backs and both starting receivers, gutting an offense that generated only 5.0 yards per play, 104th in the country. What Toledo does have is RB CJ Miller from Mercer, who rushed for 953 yards with 14 touchdowns. He's one solidified piece plugged into a system his own coach already ran successfully. That alone keeps this from being a total mismatch. The Spartans didn't show passing efficiency last season even with more continuity than they'll have Friday. We should see two teams leaning on the ground game to survive a Week 1 opener, behind a new coaching staff on one side and a new supporting cast on the other. This has clock-control and feeling things out written all over it. Miami (Ohio) +17 at Pittsburgh; UNDER 48.5 Trust the coach, not the roster. That's my entire thesis on backing the RedHawks and the under. Miami lost three of its top four linebackers and both starting safeties. On paper, that reads like a defense in trouble, and based on how I've been looking at matchups entering the new season that's a team I would look to fade. However, DC Chuck Brechin has finished top three in the MAC in scoring defense all four years he's run this unit, reloading through real turnover each season. Since 2022, the RedHawks defense has accumulated 133 sacks, 83 forced turnovers and 22 All-MAC honors. Brechin has built a system that develops and replaces disruptive players year after year. That's a coach I trust. Last season alone, Miami led the MAC in interceptions and forced fumbles, while generating the second-most sacks. This is a bet on Brechin. That defense is walking into a Pitt offense that graded 119th in passing a year ago behind a freshman quarterback in Mason Heintschel, who threw eight interceptions and got sacked 34 times, most in the ACC. Even with Ja'Kyrian Turner returning on the ground, the Panthers lost their top two receivers in Raphael Williams Jr. and Kenny Johnson, who accounted for nearly half of the receiving scores, along with most of its running back depth. That leaves Pitt leaning heavy on one player to carry the load -- Heintschel -- who happened to throw the third-most turnover-worthy plays in the conference. Seventeen points is a lot to lay when Miami's pressure and takeaway ability is up against a shaky, still-developing passing offense. That combo heavily favors the underdog's identity and only reinforces the under. Betting against Brechin's unit being disruptive is betting against a four-year trend. Oregon State +21 at Houston; UNDER 50 This line implies a significant gap but doesn't match the roster changes. Oregon State added quarterback Braden Atkinson, FCS Freshman of the Year with a 3,611-yard, 34-touchdown season, plus experience at receiver with UTRGV transfer Xavyion Noland, 22.5 yards per reception, a true vertical threat. The receivers brought in provide more combined production than the receiving trio the Beavers lost, making it a potential real offensive uplift. The Beavers also retain RB2 Cornell Hatcher Jr., highly efficient at 5.6 yards per carry in a limited role. To be fair, Houston matched that investment with Trent Walker (ironically OSU's own departed WR1) plus Oregon transfer RB Makhi Hughes. Basically, both teams improved their rosters from last season through the transfer portal. But when both sides upgrade, 21 points is a lot to lay, especially against a team that aims to fix its biggest 2025 weakness, the passing game. Adding talent could argue for the over but Houston's defense is still strong where it matters (18th in tackling, 18th in coverage last season), while Oregon State's offensive line is still "finding its identity." That unit has to hold up for new skill talent to actually show up on the scoreboard. And if the Cougars' edge turns into an early lead, that usually means a running clock and fewer late plays. -- Pamela Maldonado Other bets to consider By Mark Zinno The Illini open their season against UAB. There are two things that need to happen here for this game to go over the total: Illinois must score 42 or more points and UAB needs to get to 14. I'm not sure either of those happen, let alone both. The Illini could run it up here, but that's not entirely Bret Bielema's style. Illinois still lives on the ground and that should keep the scoring low if we don't have too many long TD runs. The Illini were 42nd in the nation in time of possession last season. UAB only returns four total starters and has new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Blazers coach Alex Mortenson, son of the late, great Chris Mortenson, had some good fortune last year amid the turmoil in Birmingham, but it won't happen here. They should have real problems scoring and even moving the ball with any measure of success. Notre Dame -20.5 vs. Wisconsin Notre Dame opens its season at home against the Badgers, one of the worst offenses in the country last season, averaging 12.8 points per game. They now start Colton Joseph at QB, who is a transfer from Old Dominion. This is a massive jump to the Big Ten for him and against an Irish defense that's expected to be one of the better ones in the nation, returning 10 starters from last season. The Badgers may improve on offense, but it won't be here. The game is at Lambeau Field, but I still expect a very heavy Notre Dame crowd here. The Irish will try to be impressive on offense early in this one with CJ Carr. But we must respect the Wisconsin defense, as it ranked 24th nationally last season. The Badgers' offense likely won't have long sustained drives, however, and I expect it to wear down in the second half. The number feels short under three touchdowns. It's the biggest game of Week 1, and all eyes will be on LSU here. Both teams know how pivotal this game will be to the playoff picture and it will have that sort of feel and that's why I lean on defense here. Clemson's defense will have their hands full, but they were 16th in rushing yards allowed last season. They return three of their top four tacklers from last season and their sack leader. They could get worn down by Lane Kiffin and company later in the game, but I expect them to be formidable at the outset. LSU's defense should have their way with Clemson QB Christopher Vizzina, who only has 105 pass attempts to his record. They finished eighth in adjusted opponent EPA last season and I expect the influx of talent to only make them better. Texas 1H -17.5 vs. Texas State I missed the better number here at -16.5, but I don't care. Texas has every reason to come out firing on all cylinders. Beyond all the hype for the program and Heisman candidate Arch Manning, the Longhorns have Ohio State on deck. This is a tuneup game for them, and they can't be rusty here. I expect Texas to be eager to build a lead very early in this one and then pull the starters in the second half to avoid injury. But Steve Sarkisian knows that he can't afford to take this one lightly with a quasi-playoff game on deck next week.