Passan's MLB expansion update: Which cities are the favorites for next teams?

One of the longest-standing impediments to Major League Baseball expansion disappeared in late August, when the Hillsborough County Commission approved $796 million in public funding to help the Tampa Bay Rays build a new ballpark. Since 2016, commissioner Rob Manfred has deflected questions about expansion by saying he wants the stadium situations for the Rays and A's sorted out. With the A's move to Las Vegas nearing and the Rays' dream stadium in Tampa fully funded, there is only one more hurdle before expansion tops MLB's to-do list. That obstacle is a new collective-bargaining agreement, and though its timeline is uncertain, it will get done. At which point, MLB is expected to open its expansion process, something it hasn't done in more than three decades, the longest period without a new franchise since the advent of expansion in 1961. Considering Manfred has said he wants a pair of expansion cities -- one West Coast-based, one East Coast -- decided upon by his planned retirement in January 2029, the deadline for candidates has accelerated. It's reasonable to think that by this time next year, an expansion committee could be in place, preparing to consider the viability of bids from cities across the country and beyond before offering recommendations to the wider ownership group. The shrinking clock, sources said, is putting pressure on cities to solidify their bids in the most pertinent areas. Though population and media-market size are significant factors, so are three elements of any bid that aims to gain traction: a strong ownership group, locked-in stadium funding and a site to build the stadium. Salt Lake City's affirmative answer to all three has thrust it to the front of the West Coast bids. Nashville, Tennessee, on the other hand, has none of the three in place, and though it has long been considered the front-runner for the East Coast bid, multiple current MLB owners in recent months have questioned whether Music City can properly align the three in time to make a convincing case to an expansion committee. Five American cities have distinguished themselves as the strongest options for expansion bids. Of course, if any other city finds a billionaire with land, a fully financed stadium and a willingness to pay an expansion fee expected in the $2.5 billion range, well, it could leap right into the mix. There's one other city, too, that deserves mention more for its potential than its in-place infrastructure: It's a popular choice among baseball decision-makers, and it is the only one that has previously hosted an MLB game -- nearly 3,000 of them, actually. Even if the new teams won't be on the field until perhaps 2032, the bake-off for baseball is getting close. Here's how the bids for each of the six leading cities look. Salt Lake City Lead group: Big League Utah Combined statistical area (as of 2020 Census): 2,705,693 Media market: 28th Owner: Yes. The Larry H. Miller Company. Stadium funding: Yes. A $3.5 billion pledge from ownership for a 100-acre multiuse development and $900 million in state funding intended to cover half the cost of a stadium. Stadium site: Yes. The Power District, a massive site on Salt Lake City's west side that's already under construction. The details: By far the most advanced potential bid, Salt Lake City is the closest scenario to a turnkey operation. The experience of the Miller family, who saved the Jazz from moving and shepherded them for more than three decades, gives owners confidence in the stability of the bid. Though Salt Lake's media market lags, the success of the Jazz and Utah Mammoth bode well. And considering all the Miller family has invested already, it's unlikely to balk at the expansion fee, which is expected to be well in excess of $2 billion, particularly after the recent sales of the Los Angeles Angels for $4 billion and the San Diego Padres for $3.9 billion. Salt Lake City is the favorite to snag the Western slot for a reason: Even relatively mature bids still have catching up to do. Their words to ESPN: "It's not enough to just have a market. You have to have people within that market that actually care about the product. And that's where Utah exceeds many of these other places. We've proved that over and over again with the Mammoth. We've proved it with the Utah Jazz, where the numbers -- not just the media numbers, but all the numbers, all the spend, all the box seats and the sponsorships -- are all more on par with a larger market. And I think that's one of the things that makes Utah really unique and really fascinating. It's why we've gotten so much attention. I know it's why the league is looking very seriously at us." -- Gov. Spencer Cox, Big League Utah advisory board Nashville, Tennessee Lead group: Music City Baseball Combined statistical area: 2,250,282 Media market: 25th Owner: No. Stadium funding: No. Stadium site: No. The details: Long considered a distinct favorite to land the Eastern expansion franchise, time was on Nashville's side to build infrastructure that matched Music City Baseball's well-constructed Nashville Stars brand. But with the formation of an expansion committee likely to come after the new CBA, the more boxes a city has checked, the more attractive its bid. Nashville still has plenty of the things baseball wants: cultural relevance, popularity within the game, a city that feels bigger than its demographics. What it doesn't have is an owner, public financing or a site. And those are the sorts of things that matter, especially with local and state governments lukewarm at best on the idea of contributing tax dollars for a stadium. Nashville mayor Freddie O'Connell has said on multiple occasions that he expects a privately funded stadium. Sen. Marsha Blackburn, the overwhelming favorite to win the state's governorship in November, does not have expansion baseball among her priorities, according to a source. All of that can change quickly, of course, with the emergence of an owner willing to pay the expansion fee, cover a plot of land that will cost many hundreds of millions and then build a stadium. And politics can be funny, too, with priorities ever shifting. Nashville has much of what it takes to be the Eastern team. It just needs more to cement that status. Their words to ESPN: "When Major League Baseball decides to expand and Nashville's the market that they choose, it's going to be super competitive from an ownership structure. So, Major League Baseball and its owners will pick our general partner. We can't front-end load that, right? That's the business model. We've been very transparent about that. Other markets have different pieces and parts, but still, it's going to be competitive. I think Major League Baseball should, once they decide to expand, make it an open process. I think they should look at every market because I think things you learn that you don't know and give everybody the opportunity to present their best case forward. Plus, I think that's the catalyst that gets it done because until that happens, it's really just a conversation, right? You and I can talk about it, but until Major League Baseball and the owners decide to weigh in -- once that happens, then all of a sudden, it's game on, right?" -- John Loar, managing partner, Music City Baseball Raleigh, North Carolina Lead group: MLB Raleigh Combined statistical area: 2,242,324 Media market: 22nd Owner: Yes. Carolina Hurricanes and Portland Trail Blazers owner Tom Dundon has pledged support to bringing baseball to Raleigh. Stadium funding: No. Though the North Carolina state house declined to provide $500 million for a stadium, multiple politicians left open the idea of revisiting such an earmark. Stadium site: No, though if Dundon pushes ahead with a bid, he has development rights for 80 acres around the Lenovo Center, the Hurricanes' arena. The details: A dark horse that could have some real heft to it, Raleigh is one of just two cities with a billionaire attached to its bid. Two, in Raleigh's case, as former Milwaukee Bucks owner Marc Lasry has expressed interest, too. And its location makes a lot of sense for MLB. By the time an expansion team arrives, North Carolina projects to be the seventh-largest state by population -- and the top six all have multiple MLB teams. It's got three top-50 markets in Raleigh, Charlotte and Greensboro. There is bipartisan support for baseball expansion from Gov. Josh Stein and state leaders. The Raleigh bid hasn't garnered much hype nationally, but in terms of soundness at this moment, it's punching well above its weight. Their words to ESPN: "We went out and got the community involved, and it would just be a website sitting there if it wasn't for the community that has loved this idea, loved baseball and just thousands of people have helped this thing. So, it's not really just us, you know? What it's going to take is just us continuing to do what we're doing, beating the drum. ... The heavy lifting in Raleigh has already been done. At this point, it's just crossing T's and dotting I's. All the pieces are here. The money's ready. The owner's ready. I don't think another market can say this. I mean, I think maybe Salt Lake City may have their pieces together like we do, but this has been under the radar, and I think that's by design. And as we're getting closer here, I think pieces are going to start falling into place." -- Lou Pascucci, MLB Raleigh Portland, Oregon Lead group: Portland Diamond Project Combined statistical area: 3,280,736 Media market: 23rd Owner: No. Stadium funding: Yes. In June 2025, Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek signed a bill that earmarks up to $800 million for a baseball stadium in Portland. Stadium site: Yes. The Portland Diamond Project signed a letter of intent to buy Zidell Yards, a 33-acre site on the banks of the Willamette River. The details: If Portland were in a different time zone, it might be the favorite to win the second bid. The Portland Diamond Project, led by former Nike executive Craig Cheek, has serious bona fides. Between the public funding and the firm stadium site, it's lacking only an anchor investor to pose the most serious threat to Salt Lake City. Going up against such a formidable competitor has not stopped Portland from continuing its pursuit, and should it secure an owner with the capital to pay for the remainder of the stadium and an expansion fee, it might -- appropriately for the area -- still be in the race yet. Their words to ESPN: "We call ourselves Sportland, not Portland. We had the longest streak of sellouts for the Blazers. There's just an incredible, insatiable appetite for sports here. ... There's just a lot to like, and we've tied up [what] could be one of the most picturesque sites in all of baseball. Hitting home runs into the Willamette River in our center field, the backdrop of the Cascade Range with Mount Hood, Mount St. Helens. It's just a beautiful backdrop. And if anybody's been to this area, it's 80 degrees, sunny, no humidity, no bugs and stays light until 9:45. So bring baseball on. We're ready." -- Craig Cheek, founder and president, Portland Diamond Project Orlando, Florida Lead group: The Orlando Dreamers Combined statistical area: 4,197,095 Media market: 15th Owner: No. Orlando at one point had Rick Workman as an anchor investor, but he left the group to join the Tampa Bay Rays' new ownership consortium. Stadium funding: No. The Orange County Tourist Development Tax Citizen Advisory Task Force denied the Dreamers' request for $975 million to help build a stadium. Stadium site: Proposed. Located near SeaWorld, southwest of Orlando, the 35.5-acre plot would house a futuristic-looking facility designed by renowned stadium architect Populous. The details: This is a demographic play, pure and simple, and Dreamers co-founder Jim Schnorf is right when he says Orlando is the largest market in the United States without an MLB team. The Rays remaining in the Tampa Bay area certainly doesn't help Orlando's case -- only the New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and Baltimore-Washington teams are closer to one another than the Rays and Dreamers would be -- nor does MLB's short history in Florida. Neither the Rays nor the Marlins has exceeded 18,000 in average attendance for nearly a decade. The rejection of tourist-tax dollars didn't help the perception of the area's expansion prospects, either. Still, Orlando is enough of a baseball hub, and its population is large and growing by the day, that MLB will consider it once the expansion process begins. Their words to ESPN: "If you look back at history, when the Expos were for sale, why did they relocate to Washington, D.C., 38 miles from Camden Yards? Answer: Washington, D.C., was the best market in the country that didn't have Major League Baseball. MLB owners are financially sophisticated individuals. They will vote to put teams in the best markets. It's undeniable that Orlando is the best market that doesn't have a team. We also believe that proximity going forward becomes an advantage and not a detriment. ... People raise the question: Can Florida support a third team? In 1969, California had five teams with a substantively lesser population than Florida has today. Orlando is its own market because of 80 million-plus tourists. So, undeniably, Orlando will be very, very successful regardless of the circumstances with the race." -- Jim Schnorf, co-founder and COO, Orlando Dreamers Montreal Lead group: Montreal Baseball Group Combined statistical area: 4,291,732 Media market: 2nd (in Canada) Owner: No. Stadium funding: No. Stadium site: No. The details: After the 2022 implosion of the Tampa Bay Rays' plan to spend its summers in Montreal as part of a two-city arrangement, the second-largest city in Canada has remained under the radar. Multiple ownership-level sources have noted it as worthy of monitoring because the demographics are impossible to ignore, as is the city's baseball history. At the forefront of the latest push is Ashkan Karbasfrooshan, the owner of WatchMojo, and he sees himself more as a facilitator than the money man for a bid. Karbasfrooshan is, as much as anything, attempting to gather stakeholders while outlining a vision of what a Montreal bid could look like and espousing the virtues of a sports-mad city that would welcome the return of the Expos. They've been gone for more than 20 years now, and it's never too late to right a wrong -- particularly knowing just how passionate Expos fans were before Jeffrey Loria's plan to bring "Major League" to life left a great baseball town empty for far too long. Their words to ESPN: "I do think it just does take leadership. And the city has tons of leadership. The city has incredible leaders in finance and insurance and banking and retail and everything. But, yeah, this is a bit more of like a typical American Dream story, which is one reason I'm actually fictionalizing it to keep my sanity as kind of like a 'Field of Dreams' meets a 'Moneyball.' Or like a 'Succession' meets just the world of sports. ... But it's not even a romantic story only. On a fundamental basis, Montreal is the most normal candidate for MLB with Salt Lake." -- Ashkan Karbasfrooshan, CEO, WatchMojo