Barnwell predicts the NFL playoff field: 14 teams that will make the postseason, plus a Super Bowl pick

It's postseason projection time. With hours to go before the first game of the 2026 NFL season, I'm picking the 14 teams that will be celebrating after the league plays 272 regular-season games. There's so much football to come and so many unexpected things we'll see along the way, but like anyone else, I want to lay out the playoff field I expect to see in January before the games kick off in mid-September. Of course, that would be too easy. If you've read this column over the past couple of years, you'll remember that there's a twist. One of the most common mistakes we make as football fans -- myself included -- is overconfidence in the teams we saw excel last year. We're collectively too inclined to pick teams that made the playoffs a year ago to make it back in the current season. Ask me to pick 2026 playoff teams without any constraints and I'd pick at least nine of the 14 teams that made it in 2025. Subscribe: 'The Bill Barnwell Show' History tells us that's underestimating the chaos and variance that comes with 17-game NFL seasons. The league has been using the 14-team playoff format for only a few years now, but if we go back to 2002 and treat the seventh-best team in each conference as a playoff team, about 56% of teams that make it to the postseason in any given season make it back the following year. That's just under eight teams per campaign. Eight teams in, six teams out. There's no guarantee that 2026 will play out like an average season in terms of playoff returnees, but the evidence says our playoff predictions should start there. I'll take things a step further by looking at division champions and teams with losing records in 2025 to tailor the field even closer to what a historic playoff field typically looks like by the end of the regular season. I'll detail how those play out along the way. And at the end, I'll make my Super Bowl pick for the upcoming season. Jump to a section: 2025 division champions 2025 wild-card berths From out to in Barnwell's Super Bowl pick Which 2025 division champions will return to the playoffs? Let's start by splitting last season's playoff teams into two groups. Since 2002, just under 60% of teams that won their division in a given year have made it back to the playoffs the following year. That's 4.8 teams per year, which we'll round up to five. So, of the eight division winners from 2025, I have to pick five to return to the playoffs in 2026. We can split that even further. About 43% of division winners repeat as champs the following season, with teams such as the Tom Brady-era Patriots and the Patrick Mahomes-era Chiefs as near-perennial favorites to finish first. If we remove the Patriots and Chiefs from the data set, the rate of repeating divisional winners drops to 36%. That's an average of about three division winners retaining their titles each season. One of the weirdest things about the 2025 season factors in here. In 2024, six of the eight teams that won their division the prior year retained their crowns, which was just the third time that has happened in the eight-division era. In 2025, everything went in the opposite direction. Just one of the eight reigning champs held on to its division title for another year. The one team that did so was the Philadelphia Eagles, who became the first team to win back-to-back titles in the NFC East in more than two decades. Four 2024 division champs -- the Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Buccaneers -- missed the postseason outright in 2025. History tells us to pick three division winners to repeat as champions, with two more making it back to the postseason as wild cards. I'll then be left with three division winners from 2025 that I'll need to pick to miss the playoffs entirely. I'm sure that won't upset anyone ... Running through my options, I'm already beginning to squirm. I'm not sure there are three division winners with good chances of repeating in 2026. I like some of last season's wild-card teams more than the division winners. If this were just "pick eight playoff teams to repeat," I might have five division winners missing the playoffs. This is why I like doing this column in this very particular way -- it forces me to think about choices I don't necessarily love but that might turn out to be more realistic as the season plays out in the months to come. Seattle Seahawks My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC West champions) It feels almost controversial to pick the defending Super Bowl champions to stay atop the NFC West for another year. It's easy to understand why the Rams are favorites to top the Seahawks and return to the top of the division; they added Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to their roster this offseason. But the Seahawks did beat the Rams twice in three tries last season. They went 14-3, finishing two games ahead of Los Angeles in the race for the NFC West, and led the league in DVOA. Sure, the Seahawks were one of the league's healthier teams, especially on offense, but they also outscored opposing teams by more than 11 points per game and went a sustainable 4-3 in games decided by seven points or less. The champs lost several players on defense (Coby Bryant, Riq Woolen and Boye Mafe among them), but coach Mike Macdonald has a significant track record of developing both young players and underappreciated veterans into useful contributors on the defensive side of the ball. And virtually everybody of note beyond Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III is back on offense. It would be a surprise if the Seahawks weren't competing for a division title this season. Philadelphia Eagles My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC East champions) If the Eagles were able to overcome what had been a multi-decade run of new champions in the NFC East to finally hold on to their division crown, I'm willing to back Jalen Hurts & Co. to make it three straight in 2026. Things didn't end well for the Eagles in 2025, as they lost four of their final seven games before being bounced out of the playoffs by the 49ers, but you might remember the Eagles going through a similar scenario in 2023. They started 10-1, lost five of their last six games and were then blown out by the Bucs in the wild-card round. Yet Philly won the division the following season -- and also won the Super Bowl. The Eagles weren't great on offense, but things really began to crater once they lost star right tackle Lane Johnson in November. The 36-year-old is back as part of what should be a healthier offensive line. Vic Fangio fielded the youngest defense in the league last season, and that unit could be even more productive after adding Riq Woolen and Jonathan Greenard to the mix during the offseason. Sean Mannion's new under-center offensive scheme creates some uncertainty, but the Eagles have one of the highest floors of any team in the NFL. New England Patriots My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC East champions) I've already written about why I don't expect the Patriots to win 14 games again, which shouldn't be any sort of significant surprise. (It's hard to win 14 games twice in a row!) Even with a bit of a step backward, though, the Patriots could still hold on to their AFC East title with something like an 11-win campaign. Their schedule is tougher, but it's still the 11th-easiest slate in the league per ESPN's Football Power Index. They'll probably suffer more injuries after being one of the healthiest teams a year ago, but unless stars such as Drake Maye, Christian Gonzalez and A.J. Brown miss significant time, the Patriots should still have plenty of talent. And if the blitz-happy defensive scheme that helped sustain the Patriots as their offense struggled during the AFC playoffs carries over into 2026, the Pats might actually be a better team on a snap-by-snap basis than they were in 2025 -- even if that doesn't produce a similar win-loss record as a product of playing stiffer competition. Denver Broncos My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC wild card) Likewise, although I expect the Broncos to decline after a banner 2025 campaign, there's still plenty of room for them to do so and still make it back to the postseason for the third consecutive year. Denver won the AFC West by three games last season. The team's 24-10 record since the start of 2024 is tied for the third best in the NFL, one game behind the Bills and Eagles. The Broncos were very healthy last season, but it's notable that they were able to overcome a 3½-game stretch without Pat Surtain II, winning all four of those games. And while Bo Nix still had issues with consistency and accuracy, he jumped from 18th in Total QBR over the first half of the season to 11th over the remainder of the regular season and postseason. If coach Sean Payton can coax out the version of Nix we saw outduel Josh Allen in a playoff shootout more often in 2026, could the Broncos be the most complete team in football? Pittsburgh Steelers My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC wild card) We'll see just how thoroughly the Steelers are impacted by the departure of Mike Tomlin. Mike McCarthy should offer an offensive coaching upgrade for a team that hasn't really ever replaced Bruce Arians. McCarthy isn't exactly the analytics wizard that his initial news conferences in Dallas suggested, but the Steelers were way behind the curve in terms of game management by the time Tomlin finished his run in Pittsburgh. A more modern approach might help the Steelers squeeze more out of their roster. I'm not optimistic about Aaron Rodgers making a deep playoff run in what is expected to be his final year as a pro, but the Steelers don't have many other weaknesses to their roster. They're one of the league's most underrated teams in the trenches, with a young, promising offensive line led by Zach Frazier and Troy Fautanu. There's a great pass rush and what could potentially be an excellent secondary if Joey Porter Jr. is on the field. Facing the league's eighth-easiest schedule, the Steelers should be able to approach 10 wins and get back into the postseason, even without Tomlin in the picture. Carolina Panthers My pick for 2026: Out of the playoffs Somebody had to win the NFC South last season. While the Panthers picked up impressive wins over the Packers and Rams during the regular season, they ranked either third or fourth in the division by most advanced metrics. They finished 25th in DVOA and won a three-way tiebreaker with the Buccaneers and Falcons at 8-9. I'm not sure any of the teams in the NFC South are good enough to separate from the pack, but after finishing first a year ago, the Panthers are facing the toughest schedule of any team in their division this season. They've also already been battered by injuries, with players such as Taylor Moton, Tershawn Wharton, Nic Scourton, Ikem Ekwonu and Chris Brazzell II already out before the regular season begins. It's tough to feel really confident in Carolina at the moment, although it's admittedly hard to feel that way about any of its divisional brethren, either. Jacksonville Jaguars My pick for 2026: Out of the playoffs The Jags rode a massive increase in defensive takeaways and a second half full of games against second- and third-string quarterbacks to make a nine-game leap and jump into the postseason. There are talented players on defense, and Travis Hunter could help shore up what had been a weak spot at corner if he's there on something close to a full-time basis in 2026. But the playoff push was really driven by a defense that ranked sixth in DVOA, and the Jaguars won't be as healthy or force as many turnovers this season. Most of the discussion around the Jags surrounds the offense, and while Trevor Lawrence ended the regular season protecting the football, the unit finished only 14th in DVOA. There's a scenario where the offense is much better in 2026, but it involves a lot of counting on the best versions of players such as Brian Thomas Jr., Bhayshul Tuten, Cole Van Lanen and Parker Washington all showing up at the same time. I have serious reservations about the running game and the offensive line, and playing a league-high 11 games away from their home stadium won't help matters. This could be a consolidation year for Jacksonville. Chicago Bears My pick for 2026: Out of the playoffs It could also be one for the Bears, who made major strides under Ben Johnson in the young coach's first year at the helm, especially on offense. We saw a team that relied almost entirely on fourth-quarter success on offense, takeaways on defense and a series of perfectly timed meltdowns by its opposition to win a bunch of close games. And history tells us that's just not a sustainable way to win games year after year. Caleb Williams could go supernova this season and compete for an MVP award, and the 2026 Bears could play at a much higher level for all four quarters of games on offense. An overhauled defense could play much better on a snap-by-snap basis, too. That scenario absolutely exists. The numbers suggest that the Bears are going to take a step backward before moving forward, though, and in a division where every team posted a winning record in 2025, that might be enough to drop Chicago out of the postseason. Which 2025 wild-card teams will return to the playoffs? Here's where this gets really painful. I'd argue that the six teams that claimed wild-card berths last season collectively have a better shot of winning the Super Bowl in 2026 than the eight reigning divisional champs. While the five teams I projected as most likely to decline this upcoming season were all 2025 divisional champions, there are no obvious regression candidates here. But history tells us that just under 54% of wild-card teams since 2002 make it back to the postseason the following year. (That number includes seventh seeds as postseason qualifiers even before the league expanded to the 14-team playoff.) As a result, to abide by what we should expect from a typical year, I have to pick three of last season's wild-card teams to make it into the playoffs and three to miss out. Gulp. Los Angeles Rams My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC wild card) Well, one of the picks to make the postseason was easy. The Rams were the widespread Super Bowl favorites even before Aaron Donald unretired, adding an almost comical level of star power and depth to what was already the league's scariest defensive line. ESPN's FPI gives the Rams a better chance of winning the Super Bowl (17%) than missing the playoffs outright (16%). The Chiefs missing the playoffs last year despite having a healthy Patrick Mahomes until mid-December is a reminder that no team is guaranteed a trip to the postseason in any given year. At the same time, it's difficult to put together a scenario where the Rams miss the playoffs. Even if Matthew Stafford does get hurt or takes a major step backward at 38, the Rams could turn to first-round pick Ty Simpson, who would be supported by some of the league's best playmakers, arguably its best offensive architect and a defense overloaded with talent. And heck, if Sean McVay coaxed Donald out of retirement, what's stopping him from adding another future Hall of Famer or two between now and January? Houston Texans My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC South champions) The 2025 Texans became just the second team since 2002 to start 0-3 and still advance to the postseason, following in the footsteps of the 2018 Texans. And after that 0-3 start, they were as good as any team in football. Despite losing C.J. Stroud for a month, the Texans went 12-2, outscored their opponents by nearly nine points per game and led all defenses in points allowed per drive (1.5). Stroud melted down in the postseason, which is obviously a concern if it carries over into 2026, but he was better in the regular season than those playoff memories would suggest. He has been a solid-or-better starter without any semblance of a running game, and if the move to add David Montgomery behind a reconfigured offensive line finally unlocks the Texans on the ground, we could see something closer to the rookie-year version of Stroud this season. The combination of Stroud, a truly dominant defense and a relatively weak division gives Houston a high floor. Buffalo Bills My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC wild card) Speaking of teams with high floors, Josh Allen's streak of 137 consecutive starts gives the Bills a massive advantage on just about every other team in the league. Buffalo's 83-33 record since 2019 puts it one game behind the Chiefs, with the Bills rolling off seven consecutive seasons with double-digit victories over that span. They're the only team in the NFL to make it to the playoffs in each of the past seven years. This is a transitional year for them. The Bills are moving to a new stadium without fired head coach Sean McDermott, who had been in charge since 2017. That creates some uncertainty. Will Joe Brady be an effective head coach? Will the offense suffer as Brady's focus spreads to the entire team? I'm optimistic about debuting defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard after seeing what he did at Wisconsin, but the Bills have major question marks in the secondary. If Leonhard can transform the defense, Buffalo could be the best team in the league. If there are growing pains on both sides of the ball, the Bills should still be a playoff team -- but they might not be able to usurp the Patriots and reclaim the AFC East. San Francisco 49ers My pick for 2026: Out of the playoffs The 49ers don't really do middle of the pack. Under Kyle Shanahan, they have four seasons with 12 or more wins, but they also have four with six wins or fewer. Those subpar years are usually a product of injuries, an issue that seems to perpetually plague the Niners. They've had only one even vaguely healthy season in recent years, which came in 2023. Naturally, that was the year the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl, where in-game injuries to Jon Feliciano and Dre Greenlaw might have decided a close contest with the Chiefs. Well, as we enter Week 1, the 49ers are already banged up. Ricky Pearsall is already out for the year. Offseason additions Nate Hobbs and Christian Kirk are on injured reserve, while 2025 first-round pick Mykel Williams is on the physically unable to perform list. Veteran fullback Kyle Juszczyk, big free agent signing Mike Evans, starting corner Renardo Green and second-round pick De'Zhaun Stribling (who was one of the breakout stars in training camp) have all missed practice time with injuries. And of course, Shanahan himself was shaken up after a scary automobile accident before camp began. The good news has Nick Bosa and George Kittle traveling to Australia to play in the season opener, but both veterans are coming off serious injuries and might not be 100% to start the season. Fred Warner is returning from a badly fractured ankle. And so many of the other key players on San Francisco's roster -- including Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Greenlaw and even starting quarterback Brock Purdy -- have long track records of struggling to stay healthy for full seasons. A healthy 49ers team would be one of the best in football, but that's always a difficult ask. And after going 5-1 in one-score games last season, San Francisco can't count on pulling out so many close ones in 2026. Los Angeles Chargers My pick for 2026: Out of the playoffs It's no fun picking against the Chargers, who perpetually have a Super Bowl ceiling given the core of star talent on their roster at key positions. And like everyone else, I'm extremely excited to see what new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel can do with Justin Herbert, two high-end tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, and a group of promising young playmakers led by Omarion Hampton and Ladd McConkey. There's a chance that the Chargers combine what has been one of the league's best defenses with a resurgent offense and look like the very best team in the NFL this year. There's also a scenario where things don't go quite as well. The defense lost star coordinator Jesse Minter, who joined the Ravens to take over as their new head coach. New coordinator Chris O'Leary will be in that role for the first time at any level. Minter was able to coax improved play from veterans Donte Jackson and Khalil Mack while developing youngsters such as Cam Hart, Tarheeb Still and Daiyan Henley into immediate contributors. It wouldn't be a surprise if the defense took a step backward this season. And while Herbert will undoubtedly be excited about getting his two standout tackles back in the lineup, the interior of the O-line looms as a potential weakness, especially after Tyler Biadasz tore an ACL this summer. Second-round pick Jake Slaughter will step in at center, but the duo of Kayode Awosika and Cole Strange has much to prove at guard if McDaniel wants to install the sort of run game he was known for in Miami. The Chargers will also face what projects to be the league's seventh-toughest schedule, while their division rivals in Kansas City and Denver land at 17th and 18th, respectively. Green Bay Packers My pick for 2026: Out of the playoffs After picking the Packers to win the NFC and make it to the Super Bowl each of the past two years, I'm reluctantly forced by the structure of this column to bow out and hop off their bandwagon this year. I'm still a believer in the core talent on this roster, and with so many players who are either entering or in the middle of their prime, Matt LaFleur should have some of his young contributors break out and hit a new level in 2026. Jordan Love, who has led the NFL in Total QBR since the second half of the 2023 season, is already one of the league's most underappreciated quarterbacks. In 2026, though, this roster has a lot of questions. Micah Parsons will start the year on the physically unable to perform list, and it's unclear when the Packers can count on him to look like his usual self as he recovers from a torn ACL. The Packers traded away Rashan Gary this offseason for cap relief after the Parsons deal, meaning that their lead returning pass rusher in terms of sack production to start the season is Devonte Wyatt, who had four in 2025. The Packers didn't have a first-round pick to help supplement the defense this offseason, and defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley left to take over as the head coach in Miami. The offense is also in flux. Rasheed Walker and Elgton Jenkins both left during the offseason, leaving former first-round pick Jordan Morgan -- who hasn't looked great at guard -- to move to left tackle. The five backup linemen on the roster have a combined 76 career snaps on offense. Luke Musgrave is out indefinitely with a neck injury, which could limit Green Bay's ability to play out of multi-tight end sets, even with the return of Tucker Kraft. And lead back Josh Jacobs was placed on the commissioner exempt list last week, leaving the Packers to turn their run game over to three young backs, none of whom has ever carried the ball more than 40 times in a single season. It already feels like the Packers are hanging on for dear life, and the season hasn't even begun. Which teams will go 'outhouse to penthouse' in 2026? With the 49ers, Bears, Chargers, Jaguars, Packers and Panthers all missing the playoffs in this scenario, I need to pick six teams that missed out last season to take their places. And naturally, the right place for me to start is ... at the bottom. Since 2002, about 31% of teams that finished in the bottom five of their respective conferences in a given year have finished as a top-seven seed the following season. So, taking the 10 worst teams in the NFL -- five from each conference -- a year ago, I need to pick three of them to massively improve and make it to the postseason in 2026. This is where I had the most success last year. I picked the Bears (coming off a 5-12 season), Jaguars (4-13) and 49ers (6-11) to make it to the playoffs, and all three got there. Of course, I also picked the Cardinals as one of the other new postseason teams, and they finished dead last in the NFC, so I won't be patting myself too hard on the back. Kansas City Chiefs My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC West champions) This one won't be quite as controversial as picking the Bears or Jaguars last year, of course. I laid out the case for the Chiefs in my column on teams likeliest to improve last month, built around their record in one-score games bouncing back after falling from 10-0 in 2024 to 1-9 in 2025, the biggest single-season swing in history. It's too simplistic to say that the difference will be getting back Patrick Mahomes, given that Mahomes went 6-8 as the starter a year ago, but the Chiefs were a pretty good team by advanced metrics with their future Hall of Famer on the field. They ranked ahead of the Broncos in DVOA as late as Week 14, which was Mahomes' last full game before the ACL tear. The 2024 Chiefs were an above-average team with spectacular luck. The 2025 team was an above-average team with truly awful luck. The 2026 edition expects to land somewhere in the middle, which should place Kansas City in the range of 11 or 12 wins. Dallas Cowboys My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC wild card) The Cowboys also project to improve in 2026 after making massive upgrades on defense. As Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram noted, 17 of the 26 defensive players who were on Dallas' roster in Week 1 last September aren't on NFL rosters right now. In addition to new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, the Cowboys could have as many as seven new starters on the field to begin the year on Sunday against the Giants. Those defenders should also be luckier. The Cowboys forced takeaways on only 6.2% of opposing drives last season, which ranked 30th in the league, ahead of only the Commanders and Jets. Their 1.1% interception rate was also third worst in the league, ahead of the 49ers and Jets, who famously did not intercept a single pass all season. The Cowboys have lost star guard Tyler Smith to a thumb injury for the first month, but they're returning all 11 starters from what was one of the league's best offenses in 2025. If the defense can just be adequate, the Cowboys should be able to make it back to the postseason. New York Giants My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC wild card) The Giants? Yes, the same Giants who finished 4-13 in 2025. Do I think they're better than the Packers? No. But acknowledging that history tells us three teams from this bucket at the bottom of the 2025 standings will make it to the playoffs in 2026, the Giants look a lot like the Bears and Jaguars did a year ago -- better than it seemed the year before and in position to make a leap. The Giants went 1-6 in one-score games, losing three contests in which they held a lead in the final minute of regulation and four in which their win probability topped 90% in the fourth quarter. That can be a product of a team that doesn't know how to win, but as we saw with the shift between the 2024 and 2025 Bears and what they did in the fourth quarters of games, even young teams tend to figure out that side of the game quicker than expected. Injuries tormented key players for the Giants last season, but it appears Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers and Andrew Thomas will all be on the field in Week 1, something we saw for only a handful of snaps last year. One of the league's deepest pass rushes should be capable of tormenting opposing pass protection units, but there are real questions about the run defense, which was a mess even before trading defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II. The most important upgrade might be head coach John Harbaugh, who joins after an 18-year run with the Ravens. His experience and game management skills should help the Giants in those close games, but it's fair to note that Giants fans aren't especially enthused about his staff, particularly the decision to hire Matt Nagy and Greg Roman to run the offense. Of course, you could also make the case that they've both overseen playoff offenses in multiple stops around the league. Can New York overcome a difficult schedule? The Giants rank eighth in projected strength of schedule, per the FPI, with a slightly easier slate than the Cowboys and Commanders, whom they might compete with for a playoff spot. Of course, a year ago, the Bears were projected to face the league's fourth-toughest schedule heading into the season, but with improved coaching and a step forward from their second-year quarterback, they jumped from worst to first in the NFC North. I don't think the Giants make that sort of push and win the division, but I do think they're capable of being the league's most surprising wild-card team. Which teams will fill the final three playoff spots? That leaves us with three remaining playoff spots for newcomers. And as you might have noticed, we're still looking for three division champions. That means we'll be solely picking teams from the NFC South, AFC North and NFC North to finish up. Tampa Bay Buccaneers My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC South champions) I'm not sure any of the four teams in the NFC South should be huge favorites, but somebody has to win it. I'll lean toward the Buccaneers, who saw their run game deteriorate last season as they battled injuries to both their lead back (Bucky Irving) and much of their offensive line. Baker Mayfield was able to pull out games with fourth-quarter magic early in the season, but the offense stagnated as the year went along. Tampa also had some of the worst special teams in the league, which should hopefully be alleviated by the addition of legendary Steelers special teams coach Danny Smith. While the Bucs shed talent in losing veteran standouts Mike Evans and Jamel Dean this offseason, they were able to retain Vita Vea and should be the best team in the division along the offensive and defensive lines. Mayfield, having finally agreed to terms Tuesday on the long-term contract he sought, should still have enough in the way of playmaking talent to live up to the new deal. And in reality, this might be more about process of elimination than anything else. I've already laid out my concerns about an injury-hit Panthers team. The Saints were two games off the pace in 2025 and were carried to six wins by a defense that has lost three key players in Demario Davis, Alontae Taylor and Bryan Bresee. And the Falcons don't appear to have a solution they feel good about at quarterback, while their 2025 first-round picks on the edge are either out for the year (Jalon Walker) or suspended for half the season (James Pearce Jr.). I don't feel great about the Bucs, but I feel worse about everyone else. Baltimore Ravens My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (AFC North champions) The Ravens aren't exactly a sleeper pick to return to the postseason, given that they have the second-highest playoff chances in the league, per the FPI, as we approach the start of the year. Their case is simple: a healthier year from Lamar Jackson and a more consistently productive season from the defense under new head coach Jesse Minter, who did wonders in Los Angeles with the Chargers. Zach Orr's defense ranked 17th in DVOA last season while ranking as the league's third-most injured unit by adjusted games lost, and the Ravens will hope to line up star defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike next to new addition Trey Hendrickson up front for most of 2026. Can you pick holes in that logic? Sure. Madubuike might not be his usual self after recovering from a serious neck injury. The Ravens look thin in the secondary and are relying on veteran corners Marlon Humphrey and Chidobe Awuzie to stay healthy. The interior of the offensive line was rebuilt and will take time to jell. And new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle -- less than a year older than Jackson -- will be overseeing an evolved version of what had been one of the league's best offenses under Todd Monken. I'm still picking the Ravens to win the division, but there are real questions Baltimore has to answer if it wants to make a deep playoff run in January. Detroit Lions My pick for 2026: In the playoffs (NFC North champions) My final playoff spot came down to a battle between the Lions and Vikings in the NFC North. There are reasons to be optimistic about both teams, of course. Detroit was within one half of making the Super Bowl in 2023 and was the top seed in the conference in 2024 before some bad luck cost it a playoff spot in 2025. And as Kevin O'Connell has pointed out, the Vikings have put together 13- and 14-win seasons over the past five years when they've been able to piece together even competent quarterback play from the likes of Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold -- a level Kyler Murray should hopefully be able to match in 2026. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams made it to the postseason in 2026, but under the constraints of this system, I can pick only one. I leaned toward the Lions for a few reasons. One is schedule. Detroit projects to play the league's second-easiest slate of opponents in 2026, per the FPI. The Vikings, surprisingly, come up with the league's 17th-easiest schedule, even though they share many similar opponents. Both teams will face the AFC East and NFC South this year, but the Lions get the Cardinals, Giants and Titans as additionals, whereas the Vikings have the 49ers, Commanders and Colts. The FPI also sees the Lions as a more difficult opponent for the Vikings than vice versa. The Lions should, at least in theory, be healthier on defense than they were in 2024 and 2025, when they ranked last in adjusted games lost in back-to-back campaigns. Admittedly, that starts with Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph opening the year on the physically unable to perform list, so things aren't off to a great start, but the rest of the defense is healthier than it was a year ago. The Vikings, meanwhile, should be more banged-up by the end of 2026 after ranking fifth and fourth in AGL over the prior two seasons, respectively, even if they're healthier than the Lions to open the season. And of course, while the Vikings should have an advantage in terms of defensive performance, the Lions do project to be much better on the other side of the ball, where they have best-offense-in-football upside. While acknowledging that they've cycled through quarterbacks, the Vikings are yet to even land in the top 10 in a single season for offensive EPA per play under O'Connell, ranking 12th, 15th, 15th again and 28th over the past four seasons. We just don't know if Murray will be a good fit for O'Connell's offense or if the Vikings can keep him healthy for the entire season, something the new starter has managed only once in the past five years. The Vikings also relied heavily on veterans last season, fielding the league's third-oldest team, including its second-oldest defense. Minnesota will be younger along the interior of the line this year, but it is still relying on several veterans in key spots, including newly re-signed safety Harrison Smith, who will be 37 this season. If those guys stay healthy and play well, all is good. If not, well, the Vikings don't possess a very deep roster. That might represent the difference as both these teams get through a 17-game season. And ... who will win the Super Bowl? Well, I naturally have to throw in a Super Bowl pick here. I've predicted Chiefs-Packers in the Super Bowl each of the past two years as part of a six-year stretch of choosing the Chiefs as eventual champs. Obviously, there have been years where that has gone really well, but that wasn't the case a year ago. The Chiefs missed the playoffs outright, and after injuries to Jordan Love and Micah Parsons, the Packers were only the seventh seed (and lost to the Bears in the wild-card round). I've already picked the Packers to miss the postseason earlier in this column, so I won't get to them here. On the NFC side, I'll pick the Eagles. I really believe in their defense as potentially being the league's most complete unit, with difference-makers at all three levels and one of the best defensive coaches in Vic Fangio. There's understandable skepticism about the offense after the Eagles made coaching changes and moved on from legendary offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland, but when Lane Johnson has been on the field, the Eagles have been successful. The star right tackle should be in the lineup more often in 2026, and the Eagles will have more success running the ball than they did a year ago. They're one of the few teams that can compete with the Rams along the line of scrimmage and hold up in coverage against their playmakers. And then in the AFC, with no clear favorite, I'm willing to make a leap of faith and continue backing the Chiefs. I'm cautiously optimistic about Mahomes given that he'll be on the field Week 1, and Andy Reid's team should have a more complete roster than what it lined up in 2025 after signing Kenneth Walker III and making significant investments along the defensive line. The offensive line should be healthier, although getting Josh Simmons on the field early in the season would be important. The schedule is easier earlier in the year, which should help a Chiefs team trying to evolve its identity after an offseason full of changes. The Bills and Ravens should still be dangerous if the coaching changes unlock their defenses, but I'm willing to believe in at least one more run from the Mahomes-Travis Kelce-Chris Jones core. That leaves us with a Super Bowl rubber match. And as you can probably guess, if I believed enough in the Chiefs to pick them to win the AFC, I'll ride with them to gain a measure of revenge and beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LXI. The added rushing element with Walker will give the Eagles issues they didn't face when these two teams met in Super Bowl LIX, when the Chiefs basically abandoned the run altogether after the Eagles took an early lead. Without the ability to pin their ears back and strictly go after Mahomes as a passer, the Eagles might not be quite as dominant on defense this time around. Jalen Hurts has been spectacular in the Super Bowl matchups against Mahomes, but his one fumble in Super Bowl LVII helped swing seven points back to the Chiefs in a 38-35 victory. This one wouldn't be quite as high-scoring, but let's say that the Chiefs let Kelce (and potentially other members of the organization) ride off into the sunset.