Hispanic voters are sending both parties a message that should be impossible to ignore: stop assuming you already know where we stand.
A record 36.2 million Hispanic Americans were eligible to vote in 2024. Heading into 2026, polling in competitive congressional districts suggests many are still persuadable, with more than half either undecided or open to changing their vote.
For years, political analysts have tried to squeeze Hispanic voters into a simple narrative. After one election, we're told Latinos are firmly in the Democratic camp. After the next, we're told Republicans have permanently reshaped the electorate.
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The reality is much less tidy.
Hispanic Americans are not moving in lockstep in either direction. They weigh candidates, priorities and circumstances, then make their own decisions. That’s what makes this electorate so consequential, and so risky for either party to take for granted.
When we ask Hispanic voters what matters most, the issues may sound familiar: the cost of living, housing, good jobs, health care and opportunity. But how those pressures are experienced matters.
Nine in ten Hispanic voters we surveyed in battleground districts cite the cost of living as a top issue, while 73% say they are surviving rather than getting ahead. Eight in ten are helping support family members outside their own household. These voters don't need generic messages about the economy. They want candidates who understand how economic pressures are affecting their families and communities, and who can speak credibly to their aspirations for getting ahead.
What often gets missed in political conversations is that Hispanic voters are more than a demographic category. They are parents, workers, business owners, neighbors, and community members. They want elected officials who understand those realities, not campaigns built around assumptions.
The encouraging news is that engagement remains strong.
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A recent Univision survey of registered Hispanic voters in Texas found overwhelming interest in participating this fall. Yet 69% said candidates pay too little attention to the interests and concerns of the Hispanic community.
That's a striking combination. These are not voters who have tuned out politics. If anything, many are paying close attention and wondering whether anyone is listening in return.
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Communication matters.
Seventy-one percent say it's important for candidates to communicate with voters in Spanish, while 56% say doing so would make them view a candidate more favorably.
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That finding deserves more attention from campaigns. Speaking to Hispanic voters in Spanish isn't simply about translating an English-language message. It signals something more fundamental: that a candidate sees this electorate, respects it and is willing to make the effort to engage it directly.
In recent elections, candidates who have made the effort to engage Hispanic voters directly have had an advantage with this electorate. In close races this fall, Hispanic voters will help determine who wins and who loses; and Spanish-language engagement is an important part of earning their support.
When a candidate communicates in the language people use with family members and longtime friends, it sends a signal that the relationship matters. It suggests a willingness to meet voters where they are rather than expecting them to come to you.
But language alone isn't enough.
Campaigns have more tools than ever to identify and reach Hispanic voters. The harder task is connecting with them. That requires understanding how the issues shaping this election are experienced within Hispanic communities and communicating in ways that are relevant to their lives.
A campaign can flood someone's screen with messages. Earning someone's vote is harder. It takes consistency, respect and a demonstrated understanding of the community a candidate hopes to represent.
That's why Hispanic voters will help determine the outcome of some of the most competitive races in 2026. The electorate is large, engaged, growing and competitive.
Most importantly, Hispanic voters are making their own choices. They are not waiting for party strategists, pundits or political consultants to define them.
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The candidates who succeed will recognize that reality early. They'll talk seriously about affordability, economic opportunity, and the challenges families face every day. They'll show up consistently, not just in the final weeks before Election Day. And they'll approach Hispanic communities as voters to be persuaded, not constituencies to be claimed.
No party has a permanent hold on this electorate.
In 2026, the candidates who understand that first will be better positioned to win.