Who is MLB's team to beat this October -- and who could take them down? Execs, insiders weigh in

As the 2026 MLB regular season winds down and reaches its conclusion, it's anyone's guess as to which teams will emerge as participants in this year's World Series. Each league has its own version of parity, though the National League clearly possesses a better group of teams this season than the American League. Of course, that won't matter in the playoffs until the leagues face off in the Fall Classic. With that in mind, we asked a panel of 16 executives and scouts around baseball: Who are the teams to beat in each league heading into October? No one affiliated with a contending team was part of our poll to keep things as unbiased as possible. In last year's poll, the consensus October sleeper pick was the Seattle Mariners, who fell one game short of making it to the World Series. They didn't show up in our poll this time around -- for good reason, as they likely won't make the postseason -- and while there was no consensus overall sleeper team that could go all the way this year, there was agreement on an underdog in each league. Here's how those in the game view the upcoming playoffs. The NL's team to beat is ... Milwaukee Brewers: 6 votes (Los Angeles Dodgers, 5; Philadelphia Phillies, 4; Chicago Cubs, 1) Like last year's poll, voting was tight in the NL -- and like last year, the Brewers came out on top. It didn't work out for them in the 2025 playoffs, but experts weren't deterred by their defeat to the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Instead, voters doubled down on Milwaukee for one reason and one reason only: pitching. The Brewers are even better on the mound than a year ago, according to the insiders we spoke to. While their team ERA is about the same as it was last season, the top end of their staff, as well as the bullpen, is as good as anyone's in the game. The Dodgers got their share of votes -- because, of course they did. And though last year was portrayed as the Phillies' last hurrah with their current group, they have mostly run it back in 2026, giving Bryce Harper yet another chance at his first ring. Some voters doubled down on them breaking through this postseason after Philadelphia made it to the World Series back in 2022. Why the Brewers NL scout: "The Brewers' offense -- especially at home -- can hang with anyone. They even hit home runs there. With home-field advantage, I don't worry about them scoring. But it's Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson that give me more confidence this time around than last year when I picked them. That one-two combo can hang with the Dodgers." NL executive: "I like the Brewers. Their young players don't ever seem fazed by the moment. And there could be some weakness with the Dodgers if [Shohei] Ohtani can't be himself [and pitch]. Milwaukee is just a little bit better in all phases plus has more pitching than a year ago. Miz can match up with anyone." Biggest threats to Brewers AL executive: "Unfortunately, we faced the Phillies more recently, instead of early in the season when they were going bad. They pitched really well. I know how good the Dodgers and Brewers are, but I'm not betting against [Cristopher] Sanchez, [Zack] Wheeler and [Jesus] Luzardo -- not to mention Bryce and [Kyle] Schwarber. They're one team that doesn't HAVE to have the bye because of those pitchers. Remember, they've been as good as anyone for a long time now." NL executive: "I'm not picking against the Dodgers. They've played it perfectly this year in terms of pressing down on the gas when needed and then backing off. As long as they get a bye, they're in great shape. It would be one thing if they exhausted themselves just getting into the postseason, but from day one, they've seemingly had this three-peat in mind." AL executive: "I'll take the Cubs. First in offense, first in defense and a No.1-type starter in Clay Holmes. I know they just had bullpen problems, but as long as they keep the ball in the park, the Cubs will always have a chance." The sleeper team in the NL is ... San Diego Padres: 7 votes (Cubs, 4; Atlanta Braves, 2; Arizona Diamondbacks, 1) Not unlike the theory behind why our panel of voters chose the Brewers as the team to beat, the Padres' pitching staff seems like it could be the reason they make a run. Of course, they have to make the postseason first, but that's the whole point of picking them as a sleeper: No one knows for sure that they'll get in, but watch out if they do. Since the trade deadline, when San Diego picked up Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, the pitching staff has compiled the best ERA in the NL. And, of course, the Padres have an elite bullpen led by Mason Miller. It's enough to create a consensus for our NL sleeper team. The Cubs showed up in both our above polls, which kind of fits who they've been all season: They can be really good -- like they were in their record month of August -- or really subpar -- remember that 10-game losing streak in May? -- on any given day. Most of that revolves around their bullpen, which is currently slumping. But if depth, defense and a veteran starting staff matter, then Chicago could go all the way. AL scout: "For me, San Diego is the perfect sleeper team. They're better now than they have been all season, but because they've been fighting for a playoff spot and have no chance at the division, it doesn't feel like people are talking about them. Their last-second grab of Mize and Ray might be [general manager AJ] Preller's best work if they go far. And it just seems like everyone who was slumping in the first half is hot now." NL executive: "Jackson Merrill is going good. So is that bullpen. They're my sleeper pick." The AL's team to beat is ... New York Yankees: 9 votes (Tampa Bay Rays, 4; Boston Red Sox, 3) With the Yankees getting healthier -- meaning Aaron Judge returning from an injury absence of more than three months -- there simply wasn't much variety in voting in the AL: New York is clearly the team to beat. Perhaps that will serve as motivation for the Rays, who have had the best record in the league for most of the season. A couple of non-New York voters pointed out that the Yankees' first-round wild-card series against Boston -- if they don't overtake Tampa Bay to win the division -- could send them home early in October. That would leave the Rays or Red Sox as the team to beat. Why the Yankees NL scout: "I love the Yankees now. Judge is back. [Carlos] Rodon is back. Even without [Giancarlo] Stanton, that offense is dangerous, especially at Yankee Stadium. [Max] Fried hasn't been going deep in games, but they have so much pitching, they may not need him to. And anyone who hasn't seen Cam Schlittler pitch is in for a treat." AL executive: "The Yankees have been the best team in the AL all season, they just didn't know it. Does that make sense? The injuries are the only thing that's held them back. They just have every key ingredient for the postseason." Biggest threats to Yankees AL scout: "I'm taking the Rays thinking maybe the Yankees and Red Sox exhaust themselves a little playing each other in the first round. I mean, the Rays have been the best team in the AL all season and I love the top of their order. And I'll take Bryan Baker up against anyone, including Aroldis Chapman. His fastball/changeup combo is great." NL executive: "I like the amount of arms the Red Sox can put out there in a playoff series. And then once you get to the back of a game, they're lights out with [Garrett] Whitlock and Chapman. I think they're best positioned to win from the wild-card teams. They'll keep the Yankees in the park when they play in the first round." The sleeper team in the AL is ... Houston Astros: 7 votes (Chicago White Sox, 3; Toronto Blue Jays, 1) Though there was a consensus on the Astros, several of our voters gave off a vibe of "if you force me to pick a team" when it came to a sleeper in the AL. In other words, experts didn't have much confidence in any of the available choices outside of the top three AL East teams. Houston's pedigree might have been what put the Astros over the top, or perhaps it's just the White Sox's current struggles holding them back from true sleeper status. And yes, one voter picked the Blue Jays, who aren't even in a playoff position right now. There's history there, too, though, with Toronto having just been to the World Series last year -- and taking the Dodgers all the way to Game 7. If someone other than New York, Tampa or Boston comes out of the AL, that team would truly qualify as a sleeper. AL executive: "I can't pick the White Sox anymore. I would have a month ago. So Houston is about the only choice left for a sleeper. It's not an easy case to make, but Yordan Alvarez can change a series by himself, while Josh Hader is as good as ever right now. I just don't know about the rest of their pitching, but Hunter Brown and Peter Lambert could carry the day. Hayden Wesneski has been excellent." NL scout: "The Astros are not great, but they have pedigree. I think Hayden Wesneski could be a guy for them in October. His sweeper is really good right now. They have some home run power outside of Alvarez, which could surprise teams in October." AL scout: "If the White Sox can get just a little starting pitching, they could still make some noise. They have a bullpen. That's always a need in the playoffs. And they can hit home runs. They just haven't lately. I like them as a sleeper, assuming [Davis] Martin or [Sean] Burke are good."