Bowl projections: How did big wins and tough losses affect the postseason picture?

Week 2 gave us a finish that will be remembered for years, plus shocking upsets that impacted this week's bowl game and playoff projections. In the only top-25 matchup of the week, then-No. 4 Texas made a jaw-dropping 20-point comeback against then-No. 1 Ohio State in an ending that wowed viewers, as the Longhorns jumped seeds in this week's playoff projections. Oklahoma State and Michigan delivered big blows in Week 2 as Oregon fell out of our playoff projections, and the Wolverines' impressive win over then-No. 11 Oklahoma shifted the bowl picture. New to the 2026 season, the Power 4 conference champions will get automatic bids to the CFP, along with the highest-ranked Group of 6 team regardless of whether it is a league champ. The remaining slots in the 12-team field will go to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the field if it is among the top-12 teams. The four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds 5 through 8. The festivities of bowl season kick off with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday, Dec. 12, and wrap up with the CFP National Championship game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Monday, Jan. 25. ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach will project all the postseason matchups every week of the season until the actual matchups are set Sunday, Dec. 6. All times Eastern Jump to: First-round games | Quarterfinals Semis, title game | Bowl season College Football Playoff First-round games (at campus sites) Friday, Dec. 18 8 p.m., ESPN Saturday, Dec. 19 Noon, ABC/ESPN 3:30 p.m., TNT 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Miami Bonagura: No. 11 BYU at No. 6 LSU Schlabach: No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 LSU Bonagura: No. 10 Texas Tech at No. 7 Miami Schlabach: No. 10 Texas Tech at No. 7 Ohio State Bonagura: No. 9 Texas A&M at No. 8 Alabama Schlabach: No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 BYU CFP quarterfinals Wednesday, Dec. 30 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia Schlabach: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 4 Indiana Friday, Jan. 1 Time slots for quarterfinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl to be determined on Selection Day (Dec. 6) Quarterfinals Game 2 Noon, TNT Bonagura: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Notre Dame Schlabach: No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Texas Quarterfinals Game 3 4 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 6 LSU vs. No. 3 Texas Schlabach: No. 6 LSU vs. No. 3 Notre Dame Quarterfinals Game 4 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 7 Miami vs. No. 2 Indiana Schlabach: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia CFP semifinals, national championship game Thursday, Jan. 14 Capital One Orange Bowl Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 2 Indiana Schlabach: No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia Friday, Jan. 15 Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Notre Dame Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Texas Monday, Jan. 25 CFP National Championship Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Notre Dame Schlabach: No.4 Indiana vs. No. 2 Georgia Bowl season schedule Saturday, Dec. 12 Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Noon, ABC Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Alabama State Tuesday, Dec. 15 IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: FIU vs. Louisiana Tech Schlabach: UMass vs. Louisiana Frisco Football Classic The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Louisiana Schlabach: Memphis vs. North Dakota State Friday, Dec. 18 Boca Raton Bowl Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Liberty vs. Tulsa Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Western Michigan Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Vanderbilt vs. South Florida Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Tulane Monday, Dec. 21 Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Delaware vs. Georgia State Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Georgia State Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. UNLV Schlabach: Toledo vs. Air Force Tuesday, Dec. 22 Puerto Rico Bowl Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium (Bayamón, Puerto Rico) 1:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UMass vs. Old Dominion Schlabach: Tulsa vs. Liberty StaffDNA Cure Bowl Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando, Florida) 5 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Ohio vs. James Madison Schlabach: Troy vs. Florida International Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana) 8:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UCLA vs. West Virginia Schlabach: UCLA vs. West Virginia Wednesday, Dec. 23 New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Appalachian State Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. James Madison Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: TCU vs. Army Schlabach: Cal vs. Army San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego, California) 7:30 p.m., The CW Bonagura: San Diego State vs. Washington Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Arizona Frisco Bowl The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Clemson vs. Memphis Schlabach: UTSA vs. Western Kentucky Thursday, Dec. 24 Isleta New Mexico Bowl University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: New Mexico vs. UTSA Schlabach: UNLV vs. Fresno State Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) 7 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Fresno State vs. North Dakota State Schlabach: Hawai'i vs. Colorado State Saturday, Dec. 26 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium (New York) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Louisville vs. Iowa Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Nebraska Wasabi Fenway Bowl Fenway Park (Boston) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. East Carolina Schlabach: NC State vs. Navy Duke's Mayo Bowl Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Duke vs. Maryland Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Wisconsin 68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Troy vs. Air Force Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio) Cactus Bowl Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. UCF Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Illinois Monday, Dec. 28 Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Navy Schlabach: Duke vs. South Florida Trust & Will Holiday Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego) 5 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Virginia vs. Utah Schlabach: Virginia vs. USC Tuesday, Dec. 29 JLab Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Tulane Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: SMU vs. Houston Schlabach: Louisville vs. Kansas State Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome (San Antonio) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Oregon Schlabach: Houston vs. Oregon Wednesday, Dec. 30 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) 11:30 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Florida Schlabach: SMU vs. Florida Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium (Nashville) 3 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Nebraska vs. South Carolina Schlabach: Iowa vs. South Carolina Thursday, Dec. 31 ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Michigan vs. Ole Miss Schlabach: Michigan vs. Tennessee Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas) 2 p.m., CBS Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona Schlabach: Clemson vs. Utah Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 3:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: USC vs. Oklahoma Schlabach: Washington vs. Oklahoma Kinder's Texas Bowl Reliant Stadium (Houston) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Auburn Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri Saturday, Jan. 2 Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Penn State vs. Tennessee Schlabach: Penn State vs. Alabama SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. North Texas Schlabach: Arizona State vs. Minnesota AutoZone Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri Schlabach: TCU vs. Auburn Date TBD The Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Casino Del Sol Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) Time TBD, The CW Bonagura: Toledo vs. Nevada Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Ohio