Trajectory of 2027 NFL draft QB prospects flips fast

The frozen image of Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker somersaulting into the end zone will be the enduring highlight from the Cowboys' shocking upset of No. 6 Oregon on Saturday. It also serves as a metaphor for how quickly the fate of a college quarterback's trajectory can be flipped. A week ago, Dante Moore held the authoritative lead to be the first quarterback picked in next year's NFL draft. As for Mestemaker, he sputtered through a two-score loss at Tulsa in his Oklahoma State debut, cooling the hype built during his revelatory debut season as the starter for North Texas in 2025. ESPN polled 25 scouts and executives on who will be the top quarterback picked in the 2027 NFL draft. We revealed the results this weekend before kickoff -- Moore (14) won clearly, followed by Arch Manning (seven), LaNorris Sellers (two), Sam Leavitt (one) and CJ Carr (one). While votes are a bit scattered and are destined to change, especially with Moore off to a tepid start, the class' defining trait is the amount of quality depth. "I think it's holding strong," a veteran NFL scout said Monday. "You're going to ride the wave of the season. Sam Leavitt had three picks this weekend. Darian Mensah is rising like a rocket. Jayden Maiava is playing well. John Mateer is arrow down. We'll see who settles in." While waves are inevitable, what's certain is that the overall breadth of talent is what separates this class. There's no clear, once-in-a-generation chatter about any of the prospects -- the kind that accompanied players such as Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert -- but this quarterback class will be defined by the sheer volume of prospects that scouts get to sift through. After the five we've already mentioned from the poll -- Moore, Manning, Sellers, Leavitt and Carr -- there's a stable of others in the conversation running for a spot in the first round. That includes former Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby, Miami's Mensah, USC's Maiava, OU's Mateer, Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss, Ohio State's Julian Sayin, Indiana's Josh Hoover, Oklahoma State's Mestemaker, Washington's Demond Williams Jr., Penn State's Rocco Becht and UCLA's Nico Iamaleava. (Mateer's arrow certainly is tilting down after an inaccurate 17-of-33 passing performance in a loss at Michigan, but Mestemaker proved already this year that a quarterback's redemption is only a week away.) Why so deep? Some quirks of this class are that Moore is the rare quarterback who had a top-five projection and returned to school anyway. Chambliss gained a sixth year of eligibility via a court order, or he would have been in last year's draft. Sorsby also could have been drafted high last year but attempted to transfer to Texas Tech for top-end college money instead. (He ended up admitting to gambling on college football and is now training for the 2027 draft.) Sellers flopped last year, with his completion percentage dipping by nearly 5 percentage points compared to 2024 while also throwing five fewer touchdowns. Leavitt had NFL folks intrigued after leading Arizona State to the College Football Playoff in 2024, but he injured his foot and his performance dipped last season. Having all those players back in this draft class juiced up what already would have been a stout group in terms of depth. "There's just more guys this year," another scout said. "Some is guys going back to school. Some [is guys] leaving early. It's a perfect storm." The list of reasons continues with simple supply and demand in a cyclical industry. There were only two first-round picks at quarterback in each of the past two years: Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (No. 1) and Alabama's Ty Simpson (No. 13) in 2026; Cam Ward (No. 1) and Jaxson Dart (No. 25) in 2025. That followed a record six quarterbacks taken in the top-12 picks back in 2024. Scouts say they wouldn't be surprised if five or six quarterbacks ended up in the first round this year. There's an argument that nearly half of the teams in the NFL could at least consider drafting a quarterback high in 2027. A crew of 10 obvious teams will have their scouts and executives filling college press boxes due to an immediate need at quarterback: the New York Jets, Miami, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta, Arizona and Seattle. (Seattle is because of Sam Darnold's age/contract, the rest are for performance and need.) There are also some non-obvious candidates that could end up in the quarterback market, depending on performance, contract situations and management preferences. That group would include Baltimore, Tennessee, Carolina, Houston and Philadelphia. (This is a good year for a winning team with an aging starter or uncertain situation to wait to see what's available late in first round or perhaps trade up, as there's a bigger menu of options.) "This is a really good year to need a quarterback," another NFL scout said. "Last year was not." Quarterbacks are the engines of a multi-billion-dollar industry, and consistently evaluating and developing them remains one of the most elusive skills. The fickle nature of projecting quarterbacks was epitomized by Moore's flop at Oklahoma State on Saturday, as he finished 14-of-29 for 191 yards and two touchdowns. His offensive line appears porous, which could prove problematic in the long run. Recent history would suggest that much can change over the course of a season with quarterback projections. Consider that just two years ago, during the 2024 season, then-Colorado starter Shedeur Sanders was the leading vote-getter in ESPN's first iteration of the QB1 poll. (He went No. 144.) The poll was first unveiled the same day when two eventual No. 1 picks played each other -- Miami's Ward against Mendoza, who was then at Cal. In a poll held in early October of that year, Ward received just one of the 25 votes. The next year, in late September, Indiana's Mendoza didn't receive any votes among 25 scouts and executives before eventually catapulting to the first pick. Sellers (nine) narrowly topped Garrett Nussmeier (eight) for the top spot last September but wound up struggling and returned to school. Nussmeier got injured and slipped to the No. 249 pick. The reality for this class is that if the quarterback market continues to escalate, difficult decisions will need to be made by players unlikely to be taken in the top five. Especially when considering the high end of this year's college football quarterback market is projected at close to $6 million. The college market has increased exponentially every year of the NIL era, which means that those who aren't guaranteed to be early picks in the NFL draft could make more money by returning to school for the 2027 season. That will put quarterbacks outside the top three or four in interesting situations, as it's not inconceivable that the highest end of the collegiate market could end up north of $8 million. (That's near the projected value of the rookie salary for the No. 6 pick in NFL draft next year.) "There could end up being five quarterbacks taken in the top 10, which would make this a very, very strong class," a scout said. "There's guys on this list that will come back." Scouts are convinced -- for now -- that the high-end ceilings of this group don't match that of the record-breaking 2024 first-round class, which featured Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix. No other quarterback was taken until the fifth round that year in what was considered a top-heavy group. This year's bunch can lay claim to more depth -- even if the top-end potential might be lacking. There are plenty of results and waves still to ride, but the plethora of options makes the 2027 group unique.