UK heatwaves will cause food prices to skyrocket this winter, shock study finds

Record breaking summer temperatures causing widespread drought, straight after the warmest ever spring in England and Wales, have left experts warning that food prices will rocket this winter. With wildfires, near empty reservoirs and farmers pushed to breaking point - not to mention the Iran war inflating energy prices - the immediate future looks grim. Now an investigation by ITV’s Tonight programme warns food prices could soon be 50 per cent higher than at the start of the cost of living crisis five years ago. Gavin Lane, president of the Country Land and Business Association, says: “I think it's now inevitable we will see food prices increase in the supermarket. We will see scarcity of some items that will become too expensive for a lot of families.” With some vegetables expected to be in short supply, Mr Lane continues: “This is all going to lead to cost inflation.” Rodger Hobson has been growing carrots near York for most of his life - mainly selling to food producers and ending up in supermarket salads and soups - meaning size and quality matters. Healthy carrots have grown in some of his fields, thanks to water harvested from an underground spring. ` But, usually able to access water from nearby rivers, drought restrictions mean some fields haven’t been watered at all - devastating his crop. Rodger says these fields are barely worth harvesting, adding: “We are probably losing about 4,000 quid on every acre of this field. This is a 12 acre field and, unfortunately, we've got quite a few fields like this.” Facing a potential loss of around £500,000 this year, Rodger says farmers will have to adapt to climate change - meaning price rises for consumers. He explains: “We used to grow half our carrots without irrigation, there was sufficient rainfall. "We can't grow where we haven't got huge quantities of water, but that's the majority of land. The infrastructure isn't there to capture it in winter and use it in summer like they do in Spain. We either have to grow a lot less or capture a lot more water. Either way it's going have big price implications.” Wildfires have also caused huge problems for farmers. In July, a devastating wildfire burned for weeks on Blorenge Common on the Monthmouthshire/Torfaen border in south east Wales. Huge areas of land normally used to graze livestock, was completely destroyed. Farmer James Bourne spent more than a month helping to bring the blaze - which killed some of his sheep and destroyed nearly all the grass livestock would normally feed on - under control. He says: “Over 700 acres is gone of the common. It's like a war zone.” Now James will have to buy food for the animals that would normally graze. He says: “The prices in the supermarkets are probably going to have to be higher to cover the costs of the feed. We’re in a very, very sticky situation.” Eleanor Gilbert, known as the Berkshire Farm Girl, makes videos about daily life on her family farm near Newbury. She captured the dramatic moment when one of her rapeseed fields caught fire this summer on film. One of her toughest years in farming, financially and physically, she says: “This harvest has been one most farmers won't be forgetting, with relentless days of heat and the earliest we've completed a harvest since 1976.” Working 16 to 20 hour days during harvest, she adds: “With 40% yield loss this year, we're not in a good position.” Dairy farmer Robert Davies has around 130 cows at his farm near Ross-on-Wye, Herefordshire. Record temperatures mean Robert’s cows produced less milk. He says: “The milking cows that are inside have fans, have sprinklers. The cows have collars on and we're monitoring their heat stress. Heat stress is very bad for production.” Baked dry fields also meant using grass intended for winter to feed his herd. Meanwhile, extreme conditions combined with high production and energy costs are proving too much for some farmers, resulting in the number of dairy producers in England, Scotland and Wales dropping by 15% in five years. Robert says: “For the first time ever we've got less than 7,000 producers of milk in the UK, which is getting critically low. If we’re relying on imports to feed us, that’s a very precarious position to be in.” Last month, the Prime Minister announced £65 million of extra funding to support farmers - also promising to improve access to water and to make it easier to build reservoirs on farm land. But National Farmers Union president Tom Bradshaw says more help is needed now. He says: “The £65 million is strategic money. It builds longer term resilience. We need to build reservoirs, but it doesn't solve the here and now crisis which is facing the farming industry”. The latest figures out today show the rate of food price inflation for the last 12 months remained at 1.3%. But last week the Food and Drink Federation warned it could rise to nearly 4% by the end of the year - and more than 6% by next summer. Balwinder Dhoot, the federation’s director of sustainability and growth, said they expect prices to start rising in the next month, continuing until the end of the year and peaking in summertime 2027. Which? Consumer expert Kat Cereda adds: “It’s deeply worrying for households who are already thinking this winter about how they're going to be able to afford heating and eating. The last thing they need is an increased food bill.” But the British Retail Consortium says supermarkets have a plan to avoid large scale food shortages and to keep prices down. The Consortium’s director of growth and sustainability, Andrew Opie, explains: “Retailers will do everything they can.” Meanwhile, some farmers have diversified to survive. At Callum Stark’s potato farm in North Yorkshire, he was able to irrigate around 75% of his crop. But, because most of his potatoes are made into crisps, the really small ones can’t be sold. To bring in extra cash, he converted two giant potato storage sheds into courts for padel - a cross between tennis and squash. He says: “Farming wasn't really bringing in enough money for me to survive.” The initial conversion of his potato storage barns cost £90,000, but Callum broke even within six months and is already planning to open more courts, enabling him to carry on growing food. He says: “As a farmer my whole life's a gamble. You're sticking a crop in the ground in September, don't know what it's going to yield, don't know what the weather's going to do. So, why not have a go at this?” Faced with the concerns raised on Tonight, the Government said it’s taking a range of actions to keep prices down, including suspending import tariffs on everyday goods, supporting farmers and strengthening domestic production to make supply chains more resilient. Meanwhile, a Welsh Government spokesperson said they were closely monitoring the situation, adding: “We’ve not yet seen the full impact of this summer’s weather on food production and prices.” Ways to save Which? Consumer expert Kat Cereda’s tips for saving on weekly shop - Join a loyalty scheme to unlock instant discounts and rack up points for later spending. - Shop around and go to the bigger supermarkets if you can, where Which? research shows you can save up to £832 a year. - Switch to supermarket own brands and avoid pre-prepared and pre-packaged produce. - It’s usually cheaper to buy loose products, but check the unit price and only buy what you need. - If you're happy to buy leftover produce, apps like Too Good To Go and Olio can help you get a real bargain. You can buy unsold products from supermarkets for pennies. *Heatwaves & Food Prices: Saving On Your Supermarket Shop? Tonight - ITV1 7.30pm Thursday