How Prediction Markets Upstaged Election Polls

How Prediction Markets Upstaged Election Polls Voters, donors and media increasingly use the betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket to forecast election outcomes. Critics warn of new risks to democracy. To get an idea of how an election will shake out, a person might look at polling data. Increasingly, they might also look at a candidate’s odds on a prediction market, where users place bets against each other on the outcomes of real-world events. Prediction markets have soared in popularity following a landmark 2024 court victory for Kalshi Inc., a leading platform. In short order, they have become an influential tool for predicting elections. A growing number of media outlets feature real-time market odds in their coverage, and several have entered deals with Kalshi or Polymarket, another major platform.