Latest CFP, bowl projections: Big shifts follow a wild week

Week 3 kept us on the edge of our seats as we saw potential surprises fizzle, some thrilling finishes and a couple of big upsets. In a game circled on everyone's calendars this season, Ole Miss gained a massive win over former Rebels coach Lane Kiffin and the LSU Tigers. With this result, Ole Miss jumped seeds in this week's playoff projections and LSU dropped significantly. West Virginia handed then-No. 25 Virginia a big loss, showing there might be more Big 12 title contenders than anticipated. With conference play picking up in Week 4, expect to see the postseason picture shift further. New to the 2026 season, the Power 4 conference champions will get automatic bids to the CFP, along with the highest-ranked Group of 6 team regardless of whether it is a league champ. The remaining slots in the 12-team field will go to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the field if it is among the top-12 teams. The four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds 5 through 8. The festivities of bowl season kick off with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 12, and wrap up with the CFP National Championship game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Jan. 25. ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach will make their predictions for all the postseason matchups every week of the season until the actual matchups are set Dec. 6. All times Eastern Jump to: First-round games | Quarterfinals Semis, title game | Bowl season College Football Playoff First-round games (at campus sites) Friday, Dec. 18 8 p.m., ESPN Saturday, Dec. 19 Noon, ABC/ESPN 3:30 p.m., TNT 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 12 North Dakota State at No. 5 Indiana Bonagura: No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Miami Schlabach: No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Miami Bonagura: No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ole Miss Schlabach: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Ohio State Bonagura: No. 9 BYU at No. 8 Alabama Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 BYU CFP quarterfinals Wednesday, Dec. 30 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia Schlabach: No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 4 Georgia Friday, Jan. 1 Time slots for quarterfinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl to be determined on Selection Day (Dec. 6) Quarterfinals Game 2 Noon, TNT Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana Schlabach: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Ole Miss Quarterfinals Game 3 4 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Notre Dame Schlabach: No. 8 BYU vs. No. 1 Texas Quarterfinals Game 4 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Texas Schlabach: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Notre Dame CFP semifinals, national championship game Thursday, Jan. 14 Capital One Orange Bowl Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 2 Indiana Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas Friday, Jan. 15 Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Notre Dame Schlabach: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 6 Miami Monday, Jan. 25 CFP National Championship Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Notre Dame Schlabach: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia Bowl season schedule Saturday, Dec. 12 Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Noon, ABC Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Alabama State Tuesday, Dec. 15 IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana Tech Schlabach: UMass vs. Louisiana Frisco Football Classic The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UConn vs. Louisiana Schlabach: Memphis vs. San Diego State Friday, Dec. 18 Boca Raton Bowl Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Liberty vs. Tulsa Schlabach: FAU vs. Western Michigan Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kentucky vs. South Florida Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Tulane Monday, Dec. 21 Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Delaware vs. Georgia State Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Georgia State Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. UNLV Schlabach: Toledo vs. Air Force Tuesday, Dec. 22 Puerto Rico Bowl Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium (Bayamón, Puerto Rico) 1:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UMass vs. South Alabama Schlabach: Tulsa vs. Liberty StaffDNA Cure Bowl Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando, Florida) 5 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Ohio vs. James Madison Schlabach: Troy vs. Florida International Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana) 8:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UCLA vs. Oklahoma State Schlabach: UCLA vs. West Virginia Wednesday, Dec. 23 New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Appalachian State Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. James Madison Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UCF vs. Army Schlabach: Cal vs. Oklahoma State San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego, California) 7:30 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Oregon State vs. Washington Schlabach: Arizona vs. Boise State Frisco Bowl The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Florida State vs. Memphis Schlabach: UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee State Thursday, Dec. 24 Isleta New Mexico Bowl University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: New Mexico vs. UTSA Schlabach: UNLV vs. Fresno State Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) 7 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Fresno State vs. North Dakota State Schlabach: Hawai'i vs. Colorado State Saturday, Dec. 26 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium (New York) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Duke vs. Northwestern Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Illinois Wasabi Fenway Bowl Fenway Park (Boston) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. East Carolina Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy Duke's Mayo Bowl Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Virginia vs. Wisconsin Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Wisconsin 68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Troy vs. Air Force Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Miami (Ohio) Cactus Bowl Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Maryland vs. Baylor Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Baylor Monday, Dec. 28 Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Clemson vs. Navy Schlabach: Duke vs. South Florida Trust & Will Holiday Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego) 5 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Louisville vs. Utah Schlabach: Virginia vs. USC Tuesday, Dec. 29 JLab Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Tulane Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Auburn Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: SMU vs. Kansas State Schlabach: Louisville vs. Houston Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome (San Antonio) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Oregon Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Oregon Wednesday, Dec. 30 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) 11:30 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Florida Schlabach: SMU vs. Florida Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium (Nashville) 3 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Iowa vs. Mississippi State Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State Thursday, Dec. 31 ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas A&M Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas A&M Old El Paso Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas) 2 p.m., CBS Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona Schlabach: Clemson vs. Utah Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 3:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: USC vs. Oklahoma Schlabach: Washington vs. Oklahoma Kinder's Texas Bowl Reliant Stadium (Houston) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Auburn Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Missouri Saturday, Jan. 2 Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Tennessee Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. North Texas Schlabach: Arizona State vs. Army AutoZone Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri Schlabach: TCU vs. South Carolina Date TBD The Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Casino Del Sol Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) Time TBD, The CW Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Central Michigan