Bounceback picks: The fantasy hockey stars looking to turn back the clock

Even Connor McDavid has a down year in him. In 2024-25, the best player alive slipped from 3.21 fantasy points per game (FPPG) the year prior to 2.60, the kind of "collapse" that would be a career year for almost anyone else. Then he did what the genuinely elite tend to do after a dip: climbed right back to 3.21. If it can happen to McDavid, it can happen to whichever name on your roster you spent last spring apologizing for. That's the whole bounceback game; separating the skaters who are actually declining from the ones who just caught a bad hand of variance, injuries or linemate roulette, and are now sitting a round or two cheaper than they should be because of it. Going back to 2009-10, 59 forwards clearing a career mark of 1.7 FPPG have suffered a real down season -- a drop of 0.35 FPPG or more -- and later climbed back above their career average, a feat they pulled off 78 times between them. Some made a career of it: Evgeni Malkin bounced back four separate times, Matt Duchene an almost comical five. The blue line tells the same story, just rarer -- 20 defenders have done it off that same 1.7 bar, with Kris Letang, Roman Josi, Ryan Pulock and Shayne Gostisbehere each rebounding twice. Fewer names, which is exactly why a bouncing-back defender is worth chasing: the position is thin enough that buying one back at a discount can swing your whole season. And you don't need the archives for proof. Last season alone, Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Mika Zibanejad and Zach Hyman shook off ugly 2024-25 campaigns up front, while Charlie McAvoy, Adam Fox, Noah Dobson and Brock Faber did the exact same on the back end. Every one of them rewarded whoever drafted them at a discount. Not every name below carries that 1.7 pedigree, a few are cheaper bets where a bad year has buried a genuinely useful player, but the shape is identical. Down season, recovery profile, discount at the table. Because this is about fantasy value, period, not star power. So don't overthink the down year. Below are the forwards and defense primed for a possible return to value with a verdict on whether I think the dip is an opportunity or an obituary. More: Sign up for free | Rankings | Projections | League types Bounce-back forwards Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs (29.0 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 2.89/2.98/2.56): The offense stalled without Mitch Marner. Starved of setups, Matthews opened with just 15 goals in the first three months, ranking a very un-Matthews-like 38th in the league. He later endured a stretch of 12 games with no goals before finally scoring in the same game that Radko Gudas ended his season early. The end result was a season capped at 60 games (27 goals, 53 points). But the finish still plays -- he was sixth in the league in shots per minute -- and if Gavin McKenna even partly fills the Marner void, the setups return and the knee is the only thing that has to heal. Verdict: A clean yes. Matthews is a Rocket Richard-threat at a discount because of a lost year. Just confirm the knee checks out at camp. If it does, don't let him slip out of the first round. Mitch Marner, RW, Vegas Golden Knights (29.3 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 2.20/2.33/1.96): Year 1 in Vegas was a soft landing, not a letdown, as he drove a line all season and then led the entire NHL in playoff scoring once it counted. He settles in beside William Karlsson on the second line and onto a dangerous power play that has minutes to spare now that Pavel Dorofeyev is gone. Losing Dorofeyev's finishing touch is a concern, not a dealbreaker. Marner will find a new muse. Verdict: The question is whether he'll be good or trend back toward great. Luckily, the floor on Marner is still a top-50 forward, so it's not as if there is much downside to banking on a bigger season. J.T. Miller, C/LW, New York Rangers (33.5 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 1.92/2.23/1.82): His first full season back in New York was swallowed by injuries and a team-wide scoring drought, but he found his game in the second half and posted fantasy relevant totals in March and April. With Vincent Trocheck traded to Utah, Miller is finally locked into the full-time center role he prefers behind Mika Zibanejad instead of shuffling to the wing. Verdict: Role clarity plus health makes him a strong middle-rounds target. He's 33, so don't chase the peak, but 70-plus points is very much on the table. Brayden Point, C/RW, Tampa Bay Lightning (30.5 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 2.08/2.38/1.57): The bet here is murkier than it looks. Point missed 19 games and his counting stats cratered -- 18 goals, a career-low 14.0 shooting percentage -- but he waved off injuries as the cause at season's end, saying instead that his game has to evolve as he ages. That's honest, and a little worrying: a healthy-but-declining 30-year-old is a different draft proposition than a hurt one bouncing back. Counterpoint, he's still centering Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel on a top power play, so the setups and volume are there if the finish returns. Verdict: A calculated gamble, not a slam-dunk yes. The talent and linemates argue for a rebound, as his own words argue caution. Fine as a mid-round dart if he slips - but don't pay for the 40-goal ceiling on faith. Jesper Bratt, RW, New Jersey Devils (28.1 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 1.70/2.18/1.73): He didn't decline so much as shed 14 points of power-play production and some of Jack Hughes' availability, though the even-strength chemistry with Hughes never went anywhere. With Hughes healthy, the scoring should climb. The wrinkle is the power play: New Jersey added top-six wing depth this offseason without subtracting any, so Bratt's man-advantage looks aren't the lock they were. He has to earn the PP1 time that drove his best years, not inherit it. Verdict: A rebound bet with a catch. Healthy Hughes lifts his even-strength floor, but the crowded forward group puts his power-play ceiling in play, and the PP is where his upside lives. ESPN Fantasy Hockey is the fun, free way to get inside the game. Draft your players, set your lineups and earn points when the pros do. Sign up today! Nazem Kadri, C/LW, Colorado Avalanche (35.9 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 1.70/1.95/1.52): The down year was a slog on a bad Calgary team plus a deadline move, and the Colorado reunion hands him far better company to keep. The catch is the depth chart: he projects behind Nathan MacKinnon and Brock Nelson at center, so his ceiling hinges on top-six looks and power-play time. Verdict: The environment upgrade is real, but temper it. Take him as a mid-round multi-category center, not a star. If coach Jared Bednar commits him to a scoring role, the 20-goal, 60-point version is back. Tomas Hertl, C, Vegas Golden Knights (32.8 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 1.80/2.19/1.81): He slid back to about his career rate, and the real drag is depth-chart gravity. In Vegas's loaded top nine, he's the third-line center behind Jack Eichel and William Karlsson. What rescues his value is the power play, where he's locked onto the top unit. Verdict: A quietly reliable rebound driven almost entirely by PP1. He won't win your league, but he'll out-earn his cost; grab him once the top center tiers clear. Dylan Strome, C, Washington Capitals (29.5 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 1.64/2.10/1.62): He's still Washington's top-line pivot, but everything cooled at once last year. Those are classic bounce-back signals, and the Capitals added Jordan Kyrou and Alex Tuch to deepen the scoring around him, and they might even end up flanking him full-time. Verdict: A textbook draft-low: same premium role, colder-than-real results. Target him in the middle rounds and expect a return to the 70-point neighborhood. Jordan Kyrou, RW, Washington Capitals (28.3 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 1.69/1.97/1.44): A trade to Washington is a fresh start after his shooting percentage bottomed out, but the shot volume never did. He ranked 31st in the league in shots per 60 last season, right in the mix with names like Kirill Kaprizov and Kyle Connor, so the finishing slump reads as variance, not decline. He arrives a three-time 30-goal scorer built for sheltered, offensive-zone minutes, whether he lines up with Pierre-Luc Dubois or slots up alongside Strome. Verdict: Believe the goal rebound with one caveat -- the top power-play spot is a rotation, so his special-teams points aren't locked. A mid-round price for a run back at 30 goals is worth it. Valeri Nichushkin, RW, Columbus Blue Jackets (31.5 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 1.42/2.02/1.44): He lands in Columbus off a down year, and the draw is real: he ranked 28th in the NHL in goals per game over the four seasons prior to falling off. The knocks are real, too, though: he only played 212 of the 328 games in those four years, and Columbus is jammed with middle-six forwards fighting for the same minutes. Verdict: A boom-or-bust multi-category flier. If he wins a top-six job and stays on the ice, the draft spot is a steal. Take him late and be ready to move on if the role wavers. John Tavares, C, Toronto Maple Leafs (36.0 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 2.11/2.31/1.84): The production didn't just dip, it fell off his own career pace, from 2.31 the year before to 1.84, his leanest full season in years. But the role that made him useful is intact: he anchors a second line with William Nylander, remains a power-play fixture and still gets his net-front goals. At 36 the age is real, but a half-point below his career rate is steeper than his usage says it should be. Verdict: A modest bounce-back on role alone - the Nylander line and power-play time argue the 1.84 was low, not the new normal. Alex Ovechkin, LW/RW, Washington Capitals (41.0 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 2.61/2.60/1.85): Even at 41 he led Washington in goals and didn't miss a game. The collapse was specifically on the power play, where his shooting percentage fell off a cliff (a career-low five power-play goals) while the unit kept generating chances at his usual rate. He still owns a top power-play role, and the Jordan Kyrou and Alex Tuch additions should feed the setups. Verdict: The volume and PP1 real estate make a goal rebound likely; believe in the shot totals and expect the man-advantage finishing to normalize - just don't expect that 2024-25 magic to return. Made it this far? Create your own league with your own rules and play against your friends today. Bounce-back defense MacKenzie Weegar, D, Utah Mammoth (32.7 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 1.93/2.51/1.96): His rate dipped thanks to the fantasy void of Calgary and the deeper Utah blue line after he was traded, but he eventually settled in next to Mikhail Sergachev on the top pair and looked the part by the postseason. He's a true multi-category starter, as he finished the past three seasons ranked second or third in the league in fantasy points from hits and blocked shots combined. Verdict: A solid rebound with one ceiling-cap: Sergachev runs the top power play, so Weegar's points lean even-strength. He can still be a No. 2 defender for fantasy thanks to his elite peripherals. Shea Theodore, D, Vegas Golden Knights (31.1 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 1.73/1.91/1.54): His power-play value slipped when Vegas leaned on a five-forward attack most nights. And when they did run a defenseman up top, the job stopped being his alone. After Rasmus Andersson arrived at the deadline, the two split the blue line's power-play minutes almost evenly across the games they both dressed. Theodore led on some nights, Andersson on others, and on a couple even Noah Hanifin topped them both. The PP1 role went from Theodore's to a committee. Verdict: Don't draft Theodore as a lock for power-play quarterback minutes. He'll get them if Vegas backs off the five-forward look, but he has to hold off a legitimate top-pair talent in Andersson, and last year the split was closer to even than settled. Colton Parayko, D, St. Louis Blues (33.3 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 1.83/2.34/1.66): His ceiling season was inflated by a shooting percentage twice his career norm, and last year's slide came with back and knee trouble plus a more purely defensive assignment. The peripherals are dependable, like top-pair minutes, penalty-kill time and 160-plus blocks. Verdict: Expect a multi-category floor, not a goal repeat, because the 16-goal spike isn't the baseline. A late-round blocks-and-shots defender who's far more valuable in banger and category leagues than points-only. Victor Hedman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning (35.7 years old, FPPG career/2024-25/last season 2.06/2.31/1.51): His down year came with the season ending early when he stepped away from the team for personal reasons, not from any erosion of his game. The complication for 2026-27 is new arrival John Carlson, who projects onto the top unit and could split the power-play quarterback minutes. Verdict: Let someone else pay for the name. The talent still says rebound if he's back and right, but that's the problem. It's one "if" stacked on two more: he turns 36 this season and Carlson's arrival threatens power-play minutes. Any one of those is manageable; all three at a Hedman price is a pick you don't need to make. Download the ESPN Fantasy Sports app and have every player right at your fingertips. Available on the App Store and Google Play.