Roast dinners blow as scientists say 5 UK foods to soar in price before 2027

Roast dinners blow as scientists say 5 UK foods to soar in price before 2027 The country has been hit by a devastating year for farming Households have been warned by a scientist that five foods are set to soar in price this winter - and it will mean the UK’s favourite roast dinners will be in the firing line. The country has been hit by a devastating year for farming, with many key crops severely impacted by drought and heatwaves. Writing on The Conversation website, Sophie Perry, Research Fellow, Centre for Food Policy, City St George’s, University of London and Leila Fathi, Research Fellow at the Centre for Food Policy, City St George’s, University of London said this could have a big impact on what people can buy. They said: “Farmers have faced increasingly erratic weather, influenced by climate change and the El Niño phenomenon, while international conflicts have pushed up the cost of fuel, fertiliser and other essential inputs. “These pressures compound one another: adverse and unpredictable weather reduces crop yields, while higher fertiliser and energy costs make it more expensive to produce and process food. This will not only impact farmers’ livelihoods and shoppers’ wallets, but potentially the quality, volume and nutritional value of the food on our shelves, as manufacturers turn to cheaper alternative ingredients to limit overall price increases.” And some of the foods impacted - potatoes and leafy greens will hit the good old Sunday roast. Potatoes: Potato plants need lots of water to produce their characteristic tubers - meaning this year’s extremely dry summer has put crops under immense stress. They said: “Recent reports warn that UK and European potato harvests could be 3.5 million tonnes lower than expected - that’s roughly 5kg per person in the continent. “Given demand for a staple like potatoes is relatively steady, this abrupt fall in supply will tend to mean rises in price. What has long been relied upon as a filling and affordable base to meals may put further pressure on household budgets, and leave shoppers looking to find alternative options such as oats, barley, beans or lentils.” Leafy greens: The pair said: “Spinach, lettuce and other leafy greens are especially susceptible to heat shock and water stress as a result of their shallow roots and high water content. Similarly to potatoes, their yields have suffered this year.” The high temperatures have caused some crops to go to see early, and yields are down, meaning many suppliers are looking to import from countries like Spain - which have also had problems. Bread: This year’s long summer drought meant that UK wheat yields have fallen significantly below recent averages. The scientists said: “But wheat only makes up about 10% of the overall cost of an average loaf of bread. Increases in pricing are also being driven by energy prices and other overheads passed onto bakeries, which need to power huge mills to produce flour and heat ovens to bake bread. This means a poor harvest is one of many factors likely to inflate the price of bread over the coming months. “Bread has historically been cheap to produce. Much like potatoes, it has long been considered a routine purchase and a staple source of energy, so even a modest increase in cost will soon add up for consumers across the country.” Olive oil Olive groves have also been hit as the climate crisis drives temperatures across the continent to fresh record highs, meaning the cost of olive oil – already at elevated levels – is expected to start rising again. The scientists said: “The effects of droughts and wildfires on olive yields and the price of olive oil is likely to result in a a nutritional dilemma for shoppers. Olive oil is rich in antioxidants (such as polyphenols) and healthy fats (mostly monounsaturated fats), crucial for heart and brain health. But when prices rise, shoppers will likely be pressured to choose a more affordable alternative.” Chocolate: Cocoa trees are very vulnerable to heat and excessive rain. The scientists said: ”Prices ... are still far above historic levels and are soon expected to rise again as a result of a particularly poor yield this year. “But price is not the only thing that can change. As cocoa becomes more expensive, manufacturers may look for ways to swap the more expensive cocoa butter for cheaper alternative ingredients like palm oil. Despite palm oil serving some functional properties to maintain a smooth texture and shelf stability, it is less often found in premium chocolate products and can have a different mouthfeel.” Read the full article here.