Would you bet on the future of our planet?

Prediction markets are focusing on extreme weather and the climate crisis. But it’s led to questions about what exactly people are betting on

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How hot will it get in your nearest city tomorrow? How quickly will the planet’s ice melt and its corals die off? How many huge, costly climate disasters will hit this year? If you’re inclined to do so, you can now place online bets on how the weather and the broader, longer-term climate crisis will play out.

In the US, big online prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are considering a new area of growth beyond mere sport and crypto: the climate itself. Kalshi recently reported 500% growth in weather and climate wagers over the past year, taking the market to a $1.1bn, and is now partnering with the Weather Company, which owns the Weather Channel, to boost its credibility in this new arena.

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