Independent Łukasz Gibała won Sunday’s snap mayoral election in Kraków, Poland’s second-largest city, setting up an Oct. 11 runoff against a candidate backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition.
The contest in Kraków, pop. 800,000, was seen as a test of political strength for Civic Coalition ahead of the country’s parliamentary elections a year from now. The runoff offers Tusk’s camp a chance to regain the mayoralty after Civic Coalition Mayor Aleksander Miszalski was removed in a May referendum — a result Poland’s right-wing opposition portrayed as a setback for the government.
Gibała nevertheless finished well ahead of Tusk’s preferred candidate, Senator Monika Piątkowska, winning 36.6% against Piątkowska’s 24.4%, according to an Ipsos exit poll released after polling stations closed at 9 p.m. No candidate took the 50% needed for outright victory.
For Gibała, Sunday’s result gives him another shot at winning an office he came within a few thousand votes of securing in 2024, when he lost to Miszalski.
Miszalski subsequently faced mounting local opposition, including over Kraków’s clean-transport zone, before being recalled. Opposition parties, including Law and Justice (PiS) and parties on the far right, presented that result as evidence of weakening support for Tusk’s government ahead of the fall 2027 general election. An effort is underway to hold a similar referendum in the capital Warsaw, targeting Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, also from Tusk’s party
Sunday’s exit poll had the PiS candidate, Michał Drewnicki, in third with 19.6 percent, which would mean he misses the runoff. Nationally, however, the Tusk-led coalition may not hold onto power, with polls suggesting the PiS and the far right could form a majority.
Earlier statements from parties opposed to Tusk’s coalition indicated some could back Gibała against Piątkowska in the second round.
Turnout Sunday was 41.9%.