Latest CFP, bowl projections: How did the postseason picture shift after Week 4?

Week 4 brought the chaos with big wins, thrilling finishes and surprising upsets that shifted this week's bowl and playoff projections. Among programs that changed the postseason picture this week was Iowa, which delivered a stunning ending against Michigan and showed that the Big Ten title race is wider open than expected. Florida and Mississippi State gained big conference wins. The Gators enter Week 5 undefeated for the first time since 2019, and Oregon travels back to Eugene with a road victory against USC. New to the 2026 season, the Power 4 conference champions will get automatic bids to the CFP along with the highest-ranked Group of 6 team regardless of whether it is a league champ. The remaining slots in the 12-team field will go to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the field if it is among the top-12 teams. The four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds 5 through 8. The festivities of bowl season kick off with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 12 and wrap up with the CFP National Championship game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Jan. 25. ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach will make their predictions for all the postseason matchups every week of the season until the actual matchups are set Dec. 6. All times Eastern Jump to: First-round games | Quarterfinals Semis, title game | Bowl season College Football Playoff First-round games (at campus sites) Friday, Dec. 18 8 p.m., ESPN Saturday, Dec. 19 Noon, ABC/ESPN 3:30 p.m., TNT 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Indiana Bonagura: No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Ohio State Bonagura: No. 10 Utah at No. 7 Alabama Schlabach: No. 10 Iowa at No. 7 Alabama Bonagura: No. 9 Florida at No. 8 BYU Schlabach: No. 9 BYU at No. 8 Florida CFP quarterfinals Wednesday, Dec. 30 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Miami Schlabach: No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 4 Miami Friday, Jan. 1 Time slots for quarterfinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl to be determined on Selection Day (Dec. 6) Quarterfinals Game 2 Noon, TNT Bonagura: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Indiana Schlabach: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Notre Dame Quarterfinals Game 3 4 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Notre Dame Schlabach: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Georgia Quarterfinals Game 4 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 8 BYU vs. No. 1 Georgia Schlabach: No. 8 Florida vs. No. 1 Texas CFP semifinals, national championship game Thursday, Jan. 14 Capital One Orange Bowl Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Notre Dame Schlabach: No. 8 Florida vs. No. 4 Miami Friday, Jan. 15 Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 4 Miami vs. No. 1 Georgia Schlabach: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia Monday, Jan. 25 CFP National Championship Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Georgia Schlabach: No. 4 Miami vs. No. 2 Georgia Bowl season schedule Saturday, Dec. 12 Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Noon, ABC Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State Tuesday, Dec. 15 IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Florida Atlantic Schlabach: UMass vs. Louisiana Frisco Football Classic The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Illinois vs. Louisiana Schlabach: Memphis vs. Texas State Friday, Dec. 18 Boca Raton Bowl Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Liberty vs. Tulsa Schlabach: UCF vs. Western Michigan Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. South Florida Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Tulane Monday, Dec. 21 Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Delaware vs. Georgia State Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. UNLV Schlabach: Toledo vs. Air Force Tuesday, Dec. 22 Puerto Rico Bowl Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium (Bayamón, Puerto Rico) 1:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UMass vs. South Alabama Schlabach: Tulsa vs. Liberty StaffDNA Cure Bowl Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando, Florida) 5 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Ohio vs. James Madison Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Florida International Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana) 8:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Oregon State vs. West Virginia Schlabach: Washington vs. Cincinnati Wednesday, Dec. 23 New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Appalachian State Schlabach: Delaware vs. James Madison Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UCF vs. Army Schlabach: West Virginia vs. New Mexico San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego) 7:30 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Arizona State Schlabach: Arizona vs. Oregon State Frisco Bowl The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: NC State vs. Memphis Schlabach: Texas vs. Western Kentucky Thursday, Dec. 24 Isleta New Mexico Bowl University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: New Mexico vs. UTSA Schlabach: UNLV vs. Fresno State Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) 7 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Dakota State Schlabach: Arizona State vs. North Dakota State Saturday, Dec. 26 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium (New York) Noon, ABC Bonagura: SMU vs. Wisconsin Schlabach: Duke vs. Wisconsin Wasabi Fenway Bowl Fenway Park (Boston) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. East Carolina Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UTSA Duke's Mayo Bowl Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Virginia vs. Michigan Schlabach: Louisville vs. Minnesota 68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Marshall vs. Air Force Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Miami (Ohio) Cactus Bowl Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Oklahoma State Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Baylor Monday, Dec. 28 Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Clemson vs. Temple Schlabach: Virginia vs. South Florida Trust & Will Holiday Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego) 5 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. UCLA Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Utah Tuesday, Dec. 29 JLab Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane Schlabach: NC State vs. Oklahoma Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Kansas State Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Houston Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome (San Antonio) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Oregon Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Oregon Wednesday, Dec. 30 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) 11:30 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Duke vs. Auburn Schlabach: SMU vs. Mississippi State Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium (Nashville) 3 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Iowa vs. Mississippi State Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Kentucky Thursday, Dec. 31 ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Tennessee Schlabach: Michigan vs. Tennessee Old El Paso Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas) 2 p.m., CBS Bonagura: Louisville vs. Arizona Schlabach: Clemson vs. UCLA Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 3:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: USC vs. Oklahoma Schlabach: USC vs. Missouri Kinder's Texas Bowl Reliant Stadium (Houston) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Texas A&M Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M Saturday, Jan. 2 Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Penn State vs. LSU Schlabach: Penn State vs. LSU SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Baylor vs. North Texas Schlabach: Illinois vs. Army AutoZone Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Auburn Date TBD The Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Casino Del Sol Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) Time TBD, The CW Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State Schlabach: Ohio vs. Wyoming