Who comes out ahead in Marchenko-Knies trade? Grading the Leafs, Blue Jackets

The 2026-27 NHL season opens on Sept. 29, but teams did not wait until opening puck drop to start improving their rosters. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Columbus Blue Jackets completed a trade involving six players on Sept. 28, most notably Kirill Marchenko heading to Toronto and Matthew Knies going to Columbus. Throughout the season, this page will be your home for analysis of all the big deals by ESPN reporters, with the most recent swaps at the top. Sept. 28: Marchenko to the Leafs, Knies to the Blue Jackets Less than 24 hours before the start of a new season, the NHL had its first blockbuster trade with the Blue Jackets trading Kirill Marchenko to the Maple Leafs. Marchenko along with forward Miles Wood and goaltender Elvis Merzlikins head to Toronto in exchange for forward Matthew Knies, forward Steven Lorentz, defenseman Emil Andrae and a conditional 2027 second-round pick. Columbus will retain 18% of Merzlikins' salary. Here's a look at how both teams fared: Toronto Maple Leafs Grade: A- Maybe the easiest -- and most important -- place to start is with Marchenko signing a six-year contract carrying a $12.5 million average annual value. Attaining cost certainty is always going to be key for teams, especially in this current landscape in which the price of the brick is always subject to change with each new contract. This holds true for Marchenko. He was under contract for one more year at $3.85 million, and one more year of team control as a pending restricted free agent. That left any team acquiring him facing one of two hypotheticals: Would it be better for them to trade for Marchenko, let him play out the season, see how he looks in their lineup and then sign him to a long-term deal? Or do they get a sign-and-trade done so they have him locked in for several years at what they believe is a manageable price -- at a time when every class of player is going to cash in, with top-line players at the top of that list? Choosing the second option allowed the Leafs to avoid the season-long dilemma of deliberating on a long-term deal. That could prove to be a vital decision, with the expectation that Marchenko's figures are likely to surge while playing alongside Auston Matthews for at least two seasons. Because while Marchenko has played with talented centers in his time with the Blue Jackets, some believe he could reach the 40-goal mark for the first time in his career playing with the Leafs superstar. His career high is 31, scored in 2024-25. His addition sets the Leafs up to have a first line with Jack Roslovic joining Matthews and Marchenko, while having a second line featuring William Nylander, John Tavares and rookie Gavin McKenna, the Penn State forward who was the first pick the 2026 draft. Matthews' future is another subject for another time. Yet when it comes to Marchenko? Getting him signed long term provides the Leafs with more certainty. He is the seventh player on their active roster who has more than three years of team control remaining. Other elements of this trade will come under question. That starts with whether it was prudent to add more to their salary cap starting next season knowing Knies, who is entering the second year of a six-year contract, was already on the roster at a cheaper price of $7.75 million annually. Then there's Merzlikins and Wood. Merlikins is currently on IR after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. He's in the final year of his contract worth $4.428 million. When healthy, he's another option for the Leafs in goal. But they could also move on from him later in the season to get help elsewhere. Wood, who went unclaimed on waivers, gives the Leafs a potential depth forward if needed. Columbus Blue Jackets Grade: B+ There's a challenge facing every front office that has a star player who wants out of town. Of course there will be other teams who want the player in question. Whether any of the proposed deals make sense usually ends up being the biggest hurdle to clear. That's what makes this particular trade for the Blue Jackets one that could work. Why? Because of what they stand to benefit both now and in the future. Moving on from Marchenko, who led the Blue Jackets with 27 goals and was second with 67 points last season, meant Columbus had to find a winger that was comparable in return. Knies appears to be just that. The 23-year-old, who had 23 goals and 66 points last season, gives the Blue Jackets a sizable option on the edge who can generate offensive opportunities in a top-six role. Knies will face questions about how his production will fare not playing with Matthews, but his ability to attack the net could prove critical for a Columbus team that was in the top 10 in terms of scoring chances per 60 minutes but was around league average in high-danger chances per 60. Columbus could use Knies on its top line next to Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson, while having a second line featuring Conor Garland, Sean Monahan and Valeri Nichushkin, who arrived this summer in trade. Knies' $7.75 million AAV also helps, as Fantilli is set to earn $13.75 million annually starting this season. In total, Columbus has seven players who are set to make more than $7 million annually who have four or more years left on their current deals. Beyond Knies, Lorentz provides the Blue Jackets with another proven option they could use in various spots as needed. He scored seven goals and 18 points in 71 games last season after eight and 19 back in 2024-25, his first campaign with the Leafs. And while the Blue Jackets do have a bottom six in place, Lorentz gives them someone who logged more than 158 short-handed minutes last season; this could prove beneficial for a team that was 28th on the kill last season. Emil Andrae -- who was already traded once this offseason, from Philly back on June 16 -- is an option on the back end. He had 13 points in 61 games with the Flyers last season.