BRUSSELS — The European Union will open its vast economy to countries waiting to join its ranks, provided they agree to stand with the bloc against hostile states and industrial rivals, according to a draft European Commission proposal obtained by POLITICO.
Candidate countries — some of which have been waiting decades to become EU members — will be offered unprecedented “gradual integration” into the single market, including frictionless trade and access to research programs, while their applications are being worked on, according to the draft plan.
“The single market is the first priority for economic convergence,” reads a review of the “pre-enlargement” benefits to be offered to candidate countries.
“Earlier integration would open opportunities for Union businesses, strengthen European value chains and reduce strategic dependencies. The Commission will identify where verified regulatory alignment and enforcement capacity allow deeper participation in research, innovation and industrial cooperation, and wider market access. Priority should go to opportunities that advance accession preparations and meet shared economic and strategic needs.”
The review, overseen by top von der Leyen advisor Alexandre Adam — a former aide to French President Emmanuel Macron — would radically overhaul the EU’s approach to countries in its neighborhood. At present, almost all economic benefits of closer cooperation are reserved for members, but no new state has joined since Croatia in 2013.
As part of Adam’s package of measures, Ukraine, Moldova, Albania and Montenegro will be offered “road maps” designed to speed up the process of joining in the coming years. Others, like North Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Turkey, have seen the process drag on — with fears growing that they will become disengaged or gravitate closer to Russia or China.
Under the Commission’s plan, economic benefits offered to candidate countries will depend on their support for the EU’s foreign policy objectives, with single market access depending on them not sharing key technologies with hostile states and trade rivals.
“As industrial and market integration deepens, participation in sensitive sectors must be accompanied by cooperation on investment screening, export controls, sanctions implementation and the protection of sensitive technologies,” the review document reads.
“Assessments of access should consider strategic alignment, critical dependencies and the capacity to manage risks to infrastructure and supply chains. Where those conditions are not met, the scope of participation should be adjusted under the applicable instrument.”
Among the areas being considered for closer cooperation are semiconductors, quantum technologies, biotechnology, artificial intelligence and space.
In the waiting room
Von der Leyen touches down in Albania for talks on Wednesday as part of her tour of the Western Balkans. She’ll also visit Kosovo and North Macedonia, which will miss out on an expedited pathway to join the EU under the new plan, and will use her visit to demand economic benefits of closer alignment.
“Gradual integration should be tangible for our citizens and businesses,” Kosovo’s prime minister, Albin Kurti, told POLITICO. “We want greater access to the EU single market, European funding and financial schemes, and joint programs in areas such as energy, digitalization, research, education and infrastructure.”
“We support gradual integration, but it must be a pathway to full EU membership, not a parallel process or a substitute for it. Kosova is ready to do its part,” Kurti added.
According to the review, the ultimate goal of candidate countries should be becoming full EU members. “Accession, however, takes time: candidate countries must complete a rigorous, merit-based process and deliver far-reaching and lasting reforms,” it reads. “That time should be put to full strategic use to both prepare the Union for a larger membership and deepen gradual integration in areas of mutual interest.”
However, the benefits will depend on the countries doing their part: “Where these obligations are not fulfilled, participation must remain reversible. Access should be suspended or withdrawn where warranted,” the proposal warns.
Internal changes
Current EU members have expressed concern about the prospect of admitting new countries to the bloc that could then renege on their commitments and upend key policies. Under its former prime minister, Viktor Orbán, Hungary used its veto to block sanctions on Russia and support for Ukraine.
Adam’s review — due to be presented to top officials on Oct. 6 when von der Leyen returns from the Western Balkans — will propose new conditions on those that join the bloc to ensure they don’t backslide on democracy and the rule of law.
“The accession process must establish more than legal alignment,” it reads. “Institutions must work in practice and reforms must endure. Monitoring, incentives and enforcement should therefore form a continuous framework extending beyond accession.”
But the EU will also change to accommodate a broader membership, going far beyond the club of wealthy Western European democracies it was initially conceived as. The bloc can change its rules to be less vulnerable to individual members’ whims, the review concludes, without having to reopen fundamental articles of EU law and potentially triggering national referendums across the bloc.
“The Commission supports Treaty change where necessary, but it considers that measures already available under the Treaties should be taken forward now,” it concludes. Among the options being considered is a move to ensure more decisions can be made with a qualified majority of member countries on board.
“Qualified-majority voting is already the general rule under the Treaties, but unanimity remains in several strategically important areas. As membership grows, the risk of delay or blockage will likely increase,” it reads.
So-called passerelle clauses, which allow decisions to be taken by majority vote rather than unanimously, could be used to smooth the passage of sanctions, responses to human rights crises and the deployment of civilian missions to conflict zones, the review says. However, these clauses require unanimous support of member countries to be activated in the first place.
Leaders from across the EU will be asked to weigh in on the discussion about how to bring new members into the bloc — and what to offer those still waiting — at a two-day summit in Brussels from Oct. 15.
Von der Leyen’s enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, has said that the new proposals, combined with support from capitals to accelerate the process, offer the chance for an “autumn of enlargement” in which unprecedented changes can be made.
Zoya Sheftalovich contributed to this report.