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The Yankees' plan for beating the Rays? Strong pitching, clean baseball -- and maybe a 6-foot-7 MVP
Key Points
NEW YORK -- Standing inconspicuously in the back of the room -- or at least as inconspicuously as a 6-foot-7 aircraft carrier of a human being can -- Aaron Judge peered into the mass of booze-soaked humanity in front of him Wednesday night and smiled. The New York Yankees had put a wild-card series beatdown on Boston, a two-game drubbing that left Red Sox players partaking in a Festivus-worthy airing of grievances. That the Yankees managed it with their three-time MVP and captain, their...
NEW YORK -- Standing inconspicuously in the back of the room -- or at least as inconspicuously as a 6-foot-7 aircraft carrier of a human being can -- Aaron Judge peered into the mass of booze-soaked humanity in front of him Wednesday night and smiled. The New York Yankees had put a wild-card series beatdown on Boston, a two-game drubbing that left Red Sox players partaking in a Festivus-worthy airing of grievances. That the Yankees managed it with their three-time MVP and captain, their linchpin and North Star, out of the lineup was not lost on him.
For more than half of the season, the Yankees have subsisted without Judge, who was sidelined by a broken rib. Their offense during those three months scored 4.22 runs per game -- 26th in Major League Baseball, nearly a full run less than with him in the lineup -- and that fact seeded fears about their offense's ability to weather his latest injury, a strained calf muscle. So for the Yankees, facing the team with the second-best ERA in the American League, to plate 18 runs in two dominant wins spoke to a particular level of fitness in a Judge-free zone.
Judge's status for the Yankees' AL Division Series matchup against the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays remains up in the air and is unlikely to be decided until shortly before the series begins Saturday, sources familiar with the deliberations told ESPN. Some in the organization want him to play. Others, wary of him further aggravating the injury and imperiling him for the remainder of the postseason, would prefer to wait another week. Further complicating matters is the likelihood that Judge could be resigned to designated hitter duties, potentially taking at-bats from Luis Garcia Jr.
The Yankees want to avoid a repeat of the final week of the season, during which Judge stated his intentions to play after manager Aaron Boone said the team did not anticipate him doing so. October is no time for bifurcated narratives, and Judge's answer to a question during the Wednesday celebration about his status -- "I'm trying to be ready as fast as I can," he said, "but we'll get there when we get there" -- reflected that.
What the Yankees did to the Red Sox certainly helped his capacity for patience. Even if it was just two games, the Yankees' performance -- 26 hits, four home runs, four stolen bases and the lowest strikeout rate of any team in the wild-card round -- illustrated what they can be: an offensive machine.
For much of the season, New York distinguished itself as one of the best teams in the AL in spite of its offense, buoyed by its elite starting pitching. That unit continued its mastery in the Red Sox series, and it poses the biggest challenge for the Rays, who scored just three fewer runs than New York despite the Yankees' outhomering them 223-169 in the regular season. Tampa Bay led the AL in batting average, on-base percentage, stolen bases and strikeout rate. With Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero atop the lineup, plus Liam Hicks, Victor Mesa Jr. and Ryan Vilade all posting well-above-average numbers, not to mention professional disruptor Chandler Simpson causing havoc on the basepaths, the Rays' multidimensional offense stands in stark contrast to the Yankees' homer-heavy approach.
"They've just got a lot of guys up and down the lineup," Judge said. "They're going to put the ball in play. They're going to work a seven-, eight-, nine-, 10-pitch at-bats. And then if you leave a mistake to Diaz, Caminero, Aranda, any of those guys, they're going to make you pay. So it's going to be a grind, but I think the boys are ready for the grind."
The boys won't have it easy. Right-hander Drew Rasmussen, the Rays' Game 1 starter, limited hitters to a .199/.245/.298 line -- an opponent OPS lower than Yankees ace and soon-to-be AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler -- over a sparkling 172 innings. Whether a resurgent Freddy Peralta or All-Star Nick Martinez gets the ball in Game 2, the Yankees will face a pitcher capable of locking down even the best lineups.
The right-handedness of the Rays' starters will allow Boone to deploy the left-handed-heavy lineup the Yankees used in Game 2 against Sonny Gray, whom they chased in the fifth inning. The Rays have plenty of left-handed options to counter. If they choose to start Griffin Jax in Game 4, it frees up Ian Seymour to pitch multiple innings in multiple games. Cam Booser has been exceptional, and Garrett Cleavinger should be ready to come off the injured list. Right-hander Cole Sulser, who has an extreme reverse platoon split this season and has carved left-handed hitters, could be an option as well.
It speaks to how the Rays operate. With a cash payroll less than one-third of the Yankees' and a comparative paucity of stars, Tampa Bay nevertheless cobbled together a 98-win season to the Yankees' 93 and won the season series even as New York outscored the Rays.
"You have to really beat them," said left-hander Max Fried, who threw six masterful innings Wednesday to end Boston's season. "They're not going to lose the game. They're very good. They're fundamentally sound. They're going to move guys over. They're going to put the ball in play. They do all the little things that you need to do to be able to win tight baseball games. They pitch well, they defend well, they run, they create havoc. It's one of those series where you have to go out there and beat them because they're not going to beat themselves."
Beating themselves is something with which the Yankees are all too familiar. They managed to avoid that in the wild-card round, playing clean-enough baseball, throwing strikes, looking like a force to be reckoned with, from Rice's festival of barrels to Trent Grisham laying down a bunt single. Boston's desire to neutralize the Yankees' left-handed hitters with same-side pitchers backfired, as New York went 11-for-22 with a 1.182 OPS in left-on-left situations.
"I'm really happy to see us put together some complete baseball games," Fried said. "Do the little things, be able to hit the longball and put the bunt down. Defend well. Pitch well. When we do that, I like our chances."
Understandably so. While the Yankees have yet to announce whether Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodon will start Game 1, they have Schlittler on regular rest for Games 2 and 5, thanks to a day off between the opener and second game, then two travel days. They can use Fried on extra rest in Game 3 or pocket him for Game 4, too.
Almost everything is lining up perfectly for the Yankees -- except, of course, that aircraft carrier that has been temporarily decommissioned. Judge's October struggles notwithstanding, the Yankees are better with him in the lineup even if he's not at full strength. Just how healthy he needs to be to play will be determined in the next 24 hours. Though if he's not, Judge is plenty confident in the Yankees regardless.
"While we've had some big moments, some tough losses," Judge said, "I think mentally these guys are ready to roll."