What is happening with diesel – and should we be worried?

What is happening with diesel – and should we be worried? Donald Trump has threatened to ban US diesel exports of diesel – here’s what that could mean - Bookmark - CommentsGo to comments Become an Independent member to bookmark this article Already a member? Log in Diesel prices in the UK have reached a record high, according to the RAC, hitting £2 a litre for the first time as the war in the Middle East continues to drive up the cost of oil worldwide. The price of a litre in the UK has risen 40.5 per cent since late February, when the US first launched strikes against Iran, while prices are also at a record high in the US, where much of the world’s supply is produced and refined. In response to rising costs, Donald Trump has indicated he will ask European countries to draw from their diesel reserves as he threatens a ban on US exports of the fuel. Since 2022, the US has become the world’s largest exporter of diesel by a wide margin as the Ukraine conflict has reduced demand for Russian fuel, alongside its ability to refine it. Around 30 per cent of all cars on the road in the UK are fuelled by diesel, rising to 38 per cent of HGVs. Higher costs to operate these vehicles could have an impact on the cost of goods. Dr Jonathan Owens, an operations and supply chain expert at the University of Salford, said: “Diesel remains critical to the movement of goods. Heavy goods vehicles, distribution fleets, construction equipment and agricultural machinery all depend heavily upon it. “Any significant disruption to international diesel supplies can therefore quickly translate into higher transport and operating costs. “The relationship is straightforward: higher diesel prices increase transport costs, placing pressure on business margins and ultimately consumer prices. In the end, it is likely to be the consumer who pays,” he added. Why has the price gone up? The economic consequences of the Trump administration’s decision to launch strikes on Iran in February have rippled across the globe. The price of crude oil has skyrocket in the subsequent months, from around $60 a barrel at the start of the year to over $100 at several points. This is a direct impact of Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Around 20 per cent of the world’s gas and oil is shipped through the waterway, with peace talks – so far unsuccessful – centred on Iran’s attacks on tankers in the region. The cost pressures have had a direct impact on the price of diesel, which is refined from crude oil. Recent analysis by analysts Kpler found that has largely returned to pre-war levels producers have found alternative methods of exporting fuel out of the Middle East. Around 40 per cent of the region’s crude is now bypassing the Strait, analysis shows, compared with just 17 per cent before the war. However, the flow of refined products like diesel have not seen the same recovery, Kpler found, with shipments remaining at less than 20 per cent of pre-war levels. What has Donald Trump said? In light of rising diesel prices, Trump has said that he may call on European countries to rely on their own reserves as he reportedly plans a 90-day ban on US diesel exports. Asked about the possibility, the US president told reporters: “We may do that. They have some diesel.” In an earlier post on social media, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, said: “Our European partners should accelerate delivery on their existing commitments and make additional supplies immediately available to address ongoing disruptions. “American farmers, truckers, and businesses should not be left carrying the burden of a global diesel shortage. America is doing its part. We look to our allies to match their commitments with action.” Where does Britain’s diesel come from? Until the invasion of Ukraine, the vast majority of the Britain’s imported diesel came from Russia. Imports from the country have now dropped to zero, with the US and Netherlands taking over as the main suppliers. Around 31 per cent of Britain’s imported diesel now comes from the US, making up around 17 per cent of its total supply in 2025. The Netherlands is also the second-largest importer of US diesel, after Mexico. Any blanket export ban made by the US would therefore drive up the price of importing diesel from the Netherlands as well. The rising cost of diesel is particularly ill-timed for the UK, which has had much higher domestic refinery in the past. From being almost self-sufficient at the start of the decade, Britain now delivers just 55 per cent of its own diesel. Do we have enough? Compared to other nations, the UK has a very low level of diesel stock, at just 42 days of imports as of July 2026. This compares to over a year’s worth in Germany (398 days). Again, this has seen a substantial decrease over the past few decades. The UK had over 140 days of diesel imports stockpiled in 2008, which has steadily decreased as refineries closed. This is save for a peak to over 100 days during Covid, when demand was exceptionally low. In contrast, the level of diesel in petrol forecourts appears to have remained steady during the conflict, sitting at around 40 to 50 per cent despite the cost pressure. The latest official data only reaches late June, however, meaning the picture may have changed since. What should we do? The prevailing advice from the government is not to panic. Transport minister Keir Mather has said that Britain’s supply of diesel was “robust” and “resilient,” adding that the country had a wide range of sources. Britain joined crisis talks with Brussels on Thursday to discuss whether to release fuel stocks amid rocketing prices. Delivering advice to businesses, Dr Owens says that “the practical response should be preparation rather than panic.” “Overreacting or unnecessarily stockpiling fuel and goods risks adding further pressure to supply chains and could ultimately feed through to the public through higher prices or reduced availability. “The wider issue is therefore one of supply-chain resilience. Businesses need to understand not only their direct diesel consumption but also their indirect exposure through suppliers, logistics providers, and contractors. Emergency stocks can provide valuable breathing space, but they are a short-term intervention rather than a long-term solution. “For the UK, the message is becoming clear: fuel security is increasingly inseparable from supply-chain security.” Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies Comments