Brazil’s Lula gears up for ‘last dance’ with run for fourth presidential term

Brazil’s Lula gears up for ‘last dance’ with run for fourth presidential term President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will stand for re-election in Brazil on Sunday. At 80, the former steelworker hopes to capitalise on his popularity and economic successes to win a fourth term in office but is neck-and-neck in the polls with far-right rival Flavio Bolsonaro. Nearly four decades after Lula’s first run for the Brazilian presidency, his name will appear on the ballot for a seventh time on October 4 as he aims to win a fourth term at the helm of Latin America’s largest economy. This is despite a promise that his third tenure would be his last. “If I’m elected, I will only serve one term as president,” he said in the days leading up to his 2022 victory over former president Jair Bolsonaro. Although Lula vowed to step aside and allow for “the emergence of new leaders” on the left, he now looks like the only presidential candidate who might beat far-right rival Flavio Bolsonaro – the eldest son of Jair, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup. Polls show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro neck-and-neck in a race that has seen other candidates sidelined. Read moreLula and Bolsonaro’s mudslinging heats up ahead of weekend vote Throughout his campaign Lula, who will turn 81 on October 27, has tried to reassure voters that his age should not count against him. “I’m in great health,” he said when he announced his candidacy in August, praising the benefits of his exercise routine. But he has also promised – and this time “for real” – that if Brazilians elect him on Sunday it will be his last term. ‘Working-class roots’ On the campaign trail Lula has relied on a previous successful tactic: showing solidarity with Brazil’s working class. Born into a poor family in Brazil’s northeastern Pernambuco state, Lula spent his childhood working as a shoe-shiner and courier in Sao Paulo before training as a lathe operator. He rose through the ranks of the factory workers’ labour unions and became one of the faces of the largescale metalworkers strikes in Sao Paulo in the late 70s during the final years of Brazil’s military dictatorship. In Brazil, “politics goes beyond a partisan framework,” said Marcia Dias, director of the school of political science at Rio de Janeiro’s Federal University of the State. “In terms of social policies, it's clear that Lula has a deep understanding of the daily lives and struggles of ordinary people.” “His backstory of moving from the northeast, being raised by a single mother and trying to survive in a big city like Sao Paulo means he symbolises the Brazilian spirit for a lot of people.” It is no coincidence that Lula launched his 2026 presidential campaign in the state of Sao Paulo at the football stadium in the Vila Euclides neighbourhood in Sao Bernardo do Campo district – an area known for its deep ties to the 1970s labour movement. In his first campaign speech he leaned heavily on his “working-class roots”, paying tribute to his mother and speaking at length about his years as a trade unionist. President ‘Little Lula peace and love’ In front of the crowd there to support him, Lula also referenced his 2026 treatment for early-stage skin cancer on his scalp. “I will risk my health, and I will take my hat off to all of you,” he said, before launching into a run-down of his previous administration’s successes. The perennial leader of the Brazilian left has an unusually long record to draw on: few Latin American leaders have spent so long at the heart of government. His career in politics began in 1980 as one of the founders of the Workers’ Party. He first stood for the presidency in 1989, then 1994 and 1998, but failed to win. At the time, the former union leader was viewed with suspicion by employers and some of the middle class. He knew he had to build broader alliances and change his image to succeed, which led to him adopting the nickname "Lulinha Paz e Amor" (“Little Lula peace and love”) in a bid to soften his reputation. The combative and radical trade unionist with a bushy beard soon started appearing in elegant suits and courting the private sector – and the strategy worked. Lula won the presidency in 2002 with more than 60 percent of second-round votes becoming the country’s first labourer elected to the Planalto palace. He was re-elected four years later. These two terms brought economic growth and social policies that transformed the lives of millions of people in Brazil. Alongside measures such as a rise in minimum wages, Lula’s “Bolsa Familia” programme for low-income families was credited with raising 20 million people out of poverty. Corruption accusations As Lula’s popularity soared among the working class, Lula was also embroiled in corruption scandals that destroyed his reputation so badly that he dropped out of political life. These included an alleged vote-buying ring in Congress orchestrated by the left-wing party between 2002 and 2005 which became the largest scandal involving the embezzlement of public funds ever uncovered in Brazil. Lula was found guilty of corruption and money laundering in 2017. He spent 580 days in prison and was barred from running in the 2018 election. But the ruling was revoked in 2021 by Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court which found that the trial lacked jurisdiction and that judge Sergio Moro had shown bias in certain proceedings. After 12 years on the political sidelines, Lula returned to centre stage in 2022 with a successful presidential run against Jair Bolsonaro. Despite the scandals, the leader of the left had maintained a powerful hold over the electorate. “At least 30 percent of people who voted for Lula never believed the corruption accusations against him and never stopped supporting him,” said Dias. “And when his conviction was overturned some of those who had been disappointed started to believe in him again.” Read moreFlavio Bolsonaro probed for corruption as Brazil election tightens A mixed economic record When Lula returned to power in 2022 found a country that was very different from the one he governed from 2003-2010. Even so, he has come to the end of his third term with some notable wins: unemployment rates are at a historic low, inflation has slowed, poverty rates are declining and the government voted in May to reduce the maximum workweek and ensure all workers get at least two rest days. At the same time, growth has slowed, public debt has increased and household debt remains high. In other words, a large number of Brazilians are not feeling economic improvements in their pockets. And, as Lula seeks re-election, his popularity levels are significantly lower than the first time he left office. Some 34 percent of Brazilians think that he has managed the country well or excellently compared with 40 percent who think he has done a bad or very bad job, according to a September 24 poll published by Datafolha. Security and scandals Concerns over the cost of living and the balance of public finances have weighed on the octogenarian’s campaign. And there is another cloud on the horizon: the difficult issue of security, which persists despite Lula’s anti-crime policies. Recent months have also seen the presidential race dominated by controversies and scandals. Most recently there was a national outcry over fears that evangelical Christian Flavio Bolsonaro would strip the country’s patron saint Our Lady of Aparecida of her status if he was elected. A denial from Bolsonaro did not stop Lula seizing the opportunity to be photographed with statuettes and images of the saint, who is a symbol of Brazil’s multicultural heritage. But, even if Lula does not inspire the same levels of support as he used to, the Workers’ Party has been unable to find a better candidate. In 46 years, the party has produced governors, ministers, mayors, and other presidential candidates – but no one who can replace Lula, despite him saying in 2022 that he wanted to use his term to foster new leadership. "Lula’s leadership is very important for the party," said Dias. “He is one of the founding members that links Workers Party to the social movements of the 1970s. It remains the largest party not just in Brazil but also in Latin America.” “The last time Lula was able to pass the baton was to Dilma Rousseff [who served as Brazil's president from 2011 to 2016],” Dias added. "Admittedly, we probably need new leaders right now. But today, no one is better equipped than Lula to confront the threat of the Bolsonaros’ radical neoliberalism.” Read more'Banking on a national brand': Bolsonaro sons Carlos, Jair Renan run for power in Brazil's south ‘Meddling’ Trump Beyond Brazil’s borders there is another major factor that could swing the election: the influence of US President Donald Trump who is fuelling the rise of the far right throughout South America. While the US president has not publicly endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro, he has been accused of “meddling” in the Presidential campaign by imposing high tariffs in July that Lula’s government said were “illegal". This leaves Lula walking a tightrope between maintaining good relations with Washington and presenting himself as a bulwark against North American imperialism. Representatives from Brazil and the United States had a “constructive” discussion on trade relations in Brasilia on Wednesday, according to Brazilian authorities. Meanwhile, Lula insisted at the UN last week that his country would never be “anyone’s backyard”. He has signalled his intention to “deepen” Brazil’s ties with China and the other BRICS members and advocated for the use of strategic resources such as rare earth elements to boost the country’s industrial development. On a national level, Lula’s manifesto is tried and tested – boosting the minimum wage, Bolsa Família and public investment, reducing inequality and expanding social rights – with the addition of improving security and the fight against organised crime. After nearly four decades of public life, three presidential losses and three wins, 580 days in prison, and a return to power that few believed possible, Lula heads into Sunday’s election without the favourable poll numbers of the past and with a deeply polarised country. He maintains that this will be his last run at the presidency. Brazil’s voters will decide on October 4 whether Lula will have one last dance. This article has been adapted by Joanna York. Click here to read the original.