Victoria is about to have the most unpredictable election in living memory

analysis One Nation may end up with the balance of power after Victoria's election A 12-year-old government with sliding support seeking a rare fourth term in power, led by a premier not even three months into the job. A hungry opposition desperate to move beyond years of infighting and division, ahead in the polls but needing to pick up a long list of seats to form government. There was already a lot going on in this Victorian state election, but when you throw in the unparalleled surge in support for One Nation, the stage is set for perhaps the most complicated and unpredictable election in modern Australian history. Much has been written about the rise of Pauline Hanson's movement in the past 12 months, and this election will give us our best look yet at the decline in the two-party system that has dominated Australian politics since World War II. We've already had a few tastes of how One Nation can seriously disrupt politics as usual, most notably in South Australia in March when the party outpolled the Liberals statewide, won four lower house seats, and became Labor's primary opponent in more than two dozen others. That result happened in the shadow of a dominant state Labor government and the re-election of a premier that was never in any real doubt. In Victoria, the Labor government is in a far weaker position and has already shown vulnerability in the kinds of working-class, outer-suburbs electorates that could be vulnerable to a One Nation attack. Likewise, the Liberal and National opposition could find itself vulnerable in some of its territory, let alone in the 16 additional seats it is looking for across Victoria. Even if she wins government, Liberal leader Jess Wilson risks Pauline Hanson's right-wing alternative depriving her of the numbers she needs to be able to govern the state in majority for the next four years. Or, when put up against the most credible Liberal Party campaign that it has faced since its rise in the polls, will One Nation stall in the seats that matter? All that is to speak nothing of Greens candidates in Melbourne and independents across the state that could further complicate efforts by all major parties to reach a majority. Opinion polls indicate that both the government and opposition have shed support since the last election, and they put Labor on a primary vote more than 10 percentage points lower than its 2022 result. The electorate now appears to be split almost evenly four ways between Labor, the Coalition, One Nation, and everyone else. Is Labor's red wall under threat? Victorian Labor has an extraordinarily strong electoral record, with the party having won nine of the past 12 state elections, governing the state for 33 of the past 44 years. Victoria has developed a reputation for being, as John Howard popularised it, the "Massachusetts of Australia". The party has achieved a remarkable turnaround after a long period of rare and brief Labor governments prior to 1982. But even long periods of stability in politics usually come to an end. Labor is at risk of a structural change in this election that would not only send it to the opposition benches, but also make it tougher for the party to return to government in future. Part of Labor's dominance in Victoria is due to the strong red wall it has been able to maintain in large swathes of the state. Election campaigns in the state have traditionally been fought most fiercely in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, and along the south-eastern Melbourne seats along the Frankston train line. The party has tightly held regional city seats in western Victorian since the Kennett government was defeated in 1999. The Liberal Party hasn't won a Melbourne seat north or west of the Yarra this century. Labor has also benefited from gradual population change in Melbourne. The city is growing outwards as new housing is built on the urban fringes of the metropolitan area, and in political terms, it has seen Liberal-leaning eastern Melbourne slowly losing seats, while Labor-backing areas north and west of the Yarra expand their representation. But four years ago, Labor suffered a blow in many of its most secure seats, when its primary vote dropped by 15 to 20 points in some seats, especially in Melbourne's western suburbs. Most of that vote, however, didn't transfer to the Liberal Party. Instead, it sprayed across minor parties and independents. The swings weren't large enough to dislodge Labor MPs, but they signal a level of discontent looking around for alternatives. The Liberal Party is hoping to break its losing streak in these seats, but will voters see One Nation, which didn't contest these seats in 2022, as another credible alternative this year? Jess Wilson's path to the premier's office The Liberal Party goes into this election feeling buoyant about its chances of taking government. The party is onto its third leader in this term of parliament, but after years of division and factional dispute, it appears to have united behind the woman who has led it since November. However, Jess Wilson's pathway to power is not straightforward, and it runs through multiple checkpoints. If the non-government parties can deprive Labor and the Greens of a combined majority in parliament (a net loss of 12 seats), there would probably be no real alternative to a Wilson premiership. But even if the current government is defeated, the composition of the new one may depend greatly on how much further up the pendulum the opposition can win seats. The Liberals and Nationals need to gain 16 seats to govern in majority, and that checkpoint is markedly more difficult. The Liberals would need to be winning seats outside of the usual state election battlegrounds in Melbourne's east and south-eastern suburbs. The opposition would also need to offset any losses to One Nation, which is particularly threatening the Nationals in regional Victoria. If it fails to get to majority, the Coalition could consider a formal governing agreement with One Nation, or it could opt to negotiate every single one of its bills through a hung parliament. Ahead of the formal campaign, Labor has been drawing attention to that fact, hoping the uncertainty keeps One Nation-averse voters from abandoning ship. Even if it is going to lose government, Labor needs to minimise the losses to be competitive in 2030. The party holds 15 seats on margins of between 7 and 9 per cent, meaning that in vote terms, there may not be a very large gap between losing government respectably and a catastrophic defeat. The race that stops a nation The new political environment also means that this poll is being watched around the nation far more than a typical state election. A New South Wales election will be held less than four months after Victoria votes, and the window for a federal election opens in August next year. Politicians, parties, and pollsters are all keen to understand how the electorate is fragmenting in far more detail than any poll can tell you. And if One Nation does end up in a balance of power position in state parliament, how will a party room with very little parliamentary experience handle its influence? The lessons we learn from this election, the seat-by-seat results, and the flows of voter preferences will help us better understand the prospects — and perhaps the political fate — for Anthony Albanese, Angus Taylor, and Pauline Hanson. [Image text:] BEI Viotorian TIO