Latvian PM faces bittersweet victory in election backdropped by Russia

RIGA — Latvia’s populist Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs will face his first electoral test Saturday — but his head start in the polls is unlikely to shield him from coalition headaches in a contest where Ukraine and Russia are looming large.

After a campaign partially fought in Brussels’ corridors, Kulbergs could see two of his allied parties fail to reach the 5% threshold to get seats. And if his centrist allies fail to make it into parliament, the pro-Ukraine prime minister might struggle to get enough backing.

In this worst-case scenario, he may even need to open talks with Ainārs Šlesers, a right-wing veteran of Latvian politics who opposed restrictive tariffs on Russia.

But Kulbergs, who took office in May after his predecessor, Evika Siliņa, was engulfed in backlash over stray Ukrainian drone strikes, dismissed this idea as speculation, as he is aiming to keep Latvia among the EU’s Russia hawks.

Latvian politics spilled into Brussels last week, when a push from France, Luxembourg and Slovakia to delist two Russian billionaires from the EU sanctions list turned into a standoff between Paris and Riga.

Latvia was the last holdout in a decision requiring agreement from all 27 member countries. Kulbergs filmed social media vlogs ranting about the proposed delistings, which would free up the European holdings of the men in question and allow them to travel to the bloc.

In the end, he lost lost that battle, if only partially.

Despite the tycoons being delisted, the overall sanctions regime with almost 3,000 listings is now locked in for three years — a massive achievement considering EU capitals hitherto had to agree every six months. Latvia also said it would start negotiating with France on enhancing military cooperation and initiate talks on Paris’ nuclear deterrence initiative.

Kulbergs’ expected win on Saturday might be just as bittersweet, despite his right-wing United List party polling in first place at around 20% — a good showing in Latvian parliamentary politics.

His center-right partners, New Unity, are struggling to cross the 5% electoral threshold, which would be a floundering performance for a party that has been home to many Latvian prime ministers, including current European Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.

But for the party’s prime ministerial candidate and ex-Finance Minister Arvils Ašeradens, the low polling numbers are simply the “political pendulum which shifts from one way to the other,” he told POLITICO in Riga last month.

During the last election in 2022, New Unity was the major beneficiary of a rally-round-the-flag moment as Russia had just launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But in 2026, voters seem frustrated with Latvia’s high inflation, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding national airline airBaltic and instrumentalized migration orchestrated by Russia and Belarus.

Kulbergs’ other coalition partner, the agrarian Union of Greens and Farmers (known as ZZS), is also polling below the threshold. And if neither party manages to scrape by, it might force Kulbergs to work with the controversial businessman Šlesers, who carefully advocated expanding trade with Russia.

Kulbergs has dismissed this possibility — “as it is given now: no,” he told POLITICO in early September — because he does not trust the people Šlesers has surrounded himself with. Just weeks earlier, however, he had been less definitive, telling POLITICO in July: “I have to see what chess pieces I will get … to make a coalition.”

Šlesers has been a central figure in Latvian politics for decades, most notably as a local “oligarch” who, via family holdings, exerts influence over the Port of Riga. The capital’s harbor has seen its largely Russian and Belarusian hinterland slowly carved off by EU sanctions.  And after Kulbergs slapped 300% tariffs on transited Russian grain this month , Šlesers told Latvian national TV such transit should be allowed, though he supports Ukraine’s EU accession.

Šlesers had distanced himself from politics for a time, after he was caught on tape plotting to divvy up influential posts with fellow oligarchs about 15 years ago. But he has now captured part of the Russian-speaking vote with his conservative-populist rhethoric.

For Latvian political scientist Una Bergmane at the University of Helsinki, there is a clear scenario where Šlesers, a former transport minister, ends up in government. “There is a possibility: If ZZS makes it into the parliament then there might be a temptation [for Kulbergs] to do something with ZZS and Šlesers.”

But it’s not all doom and gloom for the prime minister. Last week’s sanctions standoff could prop him and his New Unity partners up, said Bergmane. “[Foreign Minister Baiba] Braže is the most positively recognizable New Unity member, so everything she does helps the party, but at this point Kulbergs gets most visibility anyway,” she explained. 

Kulbergs’ short time in office could play in his favor too. The prime minister and his party, Bergmane said, are in “this very, very comfortable place where they haven’t been in power for a long time” but still hold the most influential office in the country of 1.9 million.