Latest CFP, bowl projections: How did the postseason picture shift after Week 5?

Week 5 of the college football season featured three ranked matchups, with Ohio State earning a big road conference win over Iowa, Missouri shocking the college football world with its 28-point victory against top-10 Florida, and Alabama silencing the cowbells with its dominant 33-point win over Mississippi State. This week we saw big wins, performances that raised some questions and games that came down to the very last play as we take a look at how the postseason picture shifted following Week 5. New to the 2026 season, the Power 4 conference champions will get automatic bids to the CFP along with the highest-ranked Group of 6 team regardless of whether it is a league champ. The remaining slots in the 12-team field will go to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the field if it is among the top-12 teams. The four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds 5 through 8. The festivities of bowl season kick off with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 12 and wrap up with the CFP National Championship game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Jan. 25. ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach will make their predictions for all the postseason matchups every week of the season until the actual matchups are set Dec. 6. All times Eastern Jump to: First-round games | Quarterfinals Semis, title game | Bowl season College Football Playoff First-round games (at campus sites) Friday, Dec. 18 8 p.m., ESPN Saturday, Dec. 19 Noon, ABC/ESPN 3:30 p.m., TNT 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Alabama Bonagura: No. 11 UCLA at No. 6 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ohio State Bonagura: No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Alabama Schlabach: No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Indiana Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 BYU Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 BYU CFP quarterfinals Wednesday, Dec. 30 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Miami Schlabach: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame Friday, Jan. 1 Time slots for quarterfinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl to be determined on Selection Day (Dec. 6) Quarterfinals Game 2 Noon, TNT Bonagura: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Indiana Schlabach: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Miami Quarterfinals Game 3 4 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Notre Dame Schlabach: No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 2 Georgia Quarterfinals Game 4 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 8 BYU vs. No. 1 Georgia Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas CFP semifinals, national championship game Thursday, Jan. 14 Capital One Orange Bowl Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) 7:30 p.m., TNT Bonagura: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Notre Dame Schlabach: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia Friday, Jan. 15 Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 4 Miami vs. No. 1 Georgia Schlabach: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 1 Texas Monday, Jan. 25 CFP National Championship Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN Bonagura: No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Georgia Schlabach: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 2 Georgia Bowl season schedule Saturday, Dec. 12 Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Noon, ABC Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State Tuesday, Dec. 15 IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UMass vs. Florida International Schlabach: UMass vs. Louisiana Frisco Football Classic The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Louisiana Schlabach: Memphis vs. San Diego State Friday, Dec. 18 Boca Raton Bowl Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Liberty vs. Tulsa Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Western Michigan Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Auburn vs. South Florida Schlabach: Florida State vs. Tulane Monday, Dec. 21 Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Georgia State Schlabach: Liberty vs. South Alabama Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. UNLV Schlabach: Toledo vs. Air Force Tuesday, Dec. 22 Puerto Rico Bowl Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium (Bayamón, Puerto Rico) 1:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Florida Atlantic Schlabach: Tulsa vs. Delaware StaffDNA Cure Bowl Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando, Florida) 5 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Ohio vs. James Madison Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Florida International Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana) 8:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Washington vs. Iowa State Schlabach: Washington vs. UCF Wednesday, Dec. 23 New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Appalachian State Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. James Madison Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UCF vs. Army Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. New Mexico San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego) 7:30 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Arizona State vs. Fresno State Schlabach: Arizona State vs. Oregon State Frisco Bowl The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: NC State vs. Memphis Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State Thursday, Dec. 24 Isleta New Mexico Bowl University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) 2:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: San José State vs. UTSA Schlabach: UNLV vs. Texas State Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) 7 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: North Dakota State vs. Texas State Schlabach: North Dakota State vs. Fresno State Saturday, Dec. 26 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium (New York) Noon, ABC Bonagura: SMU vs. Northwestern Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Wisconsin Wasabi Fenway Bowl Fenway Park (Boston) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Florida State vs. East Carolina Schlabach: Louisville vs. UTSA Duke's Mayo Bowl Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Clemson vs. Iowa Schlabach: Duke vs. Northwestern 68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Air Force Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Miami (Ohio) Cactus Bowl Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Michigan vs. Oklahoma State Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Penn State Monday, Dec. 28 Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Virginia vs. Temple Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida Trust & Will Holiday Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego) 5 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Duke vs. Oregon State Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Utah Tuesday, Dec. 29 JLab Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Auburn Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Houston Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Houston Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome (San Antonio) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Oregon Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. UCLA Wednesday, Dec. 30 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) 11:30 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Ole Miss Schlabach: SMU vs. Florida Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee) 3 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Penn State vs. Mississippi State Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Kentucky Thursday, Dec. 31 ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Florida Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State Old El Paso Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas) 2 p.m., CBS Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 3:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: USC vs. Oklahoma Schlabach: USC vs. Missouri Kinder's Texas Bowl Reliant Stadium (Houston) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M Saturday, Jan. 2 Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Tennessee Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. North Texas Schlabach: Virginia vs. Michigan Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Casino Del Sol Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) 4:30 p.m., The CW Bonagura: Toledo vs. New Mexico Schlabach: Ohio vs. San José State AutoZone Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee) 7:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma