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Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading

Bloomberg Markets Wednesday 07 October 2026, 21:00 UTC By Carolyn Silverman and Denitsa Tsekova 1 min read
Key Points

Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading Prediction markets tout themselves as “truth machines,” but trading data shows a lot of casino-like bets. Pore through the reams of bets made on Polymarket and Kalshi and a clear pattern emerges: bettors flocking again and again to money-losing longshot wagers. To this crowd, the sites aren’t the truth machines that their billionaire founders claim, converting millions of carefully considered wagers into precise forecasts of...

Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading Prediction markets tout themselves as “truth machines,” but trading data shows a lot of casino-like bets. Pore through the reams of bets made on Polymarket and Kalshi and a clear pattern emerges: bettors flocking again and again to money-losing longshot wagers. To this crowd, the sites aren’t the truth machines that their billionaire founders claim, converting millions of carefully considered wagers into precise forecasts of real-world events that will, in turn, inform decision-making by businesses and investors across the globe. No, for many customers, these markets look more like a casino crossed with an arcade, open 24/7 and capable of serving up a never-ending buffet of nearly impossible bets that maximize the dopamine rush even as they minimize the financial returns.
Time Dominate Kalshi (ORG) Polymarket Trading Prediction (ORG) Polymarket (PERSON) Kalshi (PERSON)
Originally published by Bloomberg Markets Read original →

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