Is Trump signalling a return to war with Iran after the midterms?

Is Trump signalling a return to war with Iran after the midterms? US media reports suggest he may be weighing strikes before the vote but the president has ruled that out. United States President Donald Trump has said that he does not intend to bomb Iran again until the November midterm elections, even though several US media outlets have reported that the Pentagon has drawn up plans to relaunch attacks before that vote. Trump has been accused of misdirection on the issue in the past. The US launched its initial attacks on Iran on February 28, as talks with Iran were ongoing and despite Trump saying just the day before that he had not made any decision. One year previously, the US struck Iran towards the end of Israel’s June 2025 12-day war, despite Trump saying he would announce a decision about attacks “in two weeks”. Recommended Stories list of 4 items- list 1 of 4Trump says US will not strike Iran before midterm elections - list 2 of 4US stocks slide as oil prices fluctuate over renewed Iran war fears - list 3 of 4October 7 redrew the map of the Middle East, opening new faultlines - list 4 of 4The Hormuz bonus: Sailor salaries soar for transits amid Iran war Still, striking Iran ahead of the midterm elections would be risky for the administration as the war remains deeply unpopular with Americans. Resuming the war afterwards may have less of a negative impact on Trump, who is not eligible to run for another term as US president anyway. Here’s what we know about Trump’s plans. What has been reported by US media? In the past two days, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and other publications have reported claims by unnamed officials that the Pentagon has drawn up plans to attack Iran before the midterms, if authorised to do so. On Wednesday, US publication Axios cited US and Israeli officials saying the Pentagon has instructed US Central Command (CENTCOM) to prepare for imminent major combat operations. The Atlantic also reported along similar lines. What has Trump said? On Thursday, Trump posted on his Truth Social media platform that he will not order a resumption of strikes on Iran before November 3, when the US midterm elections will be held. “I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition…we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd,” he said. The president added that the US is presently “having productive discussions” with the Iranian side. However, that was also the case on February 28, the day the US and Israel first struck Iran, triggering the war. Trump did not make any reference to preparing for potential military operations, nor did he provide more details on the state of talks. Why might Trump be hesitant about resuming bombing before the midterms? Trump and Republicans are worried about a voter backlash against the war at the polls. The US war on Iran is intensely unpopular domestically as Americans have had to grapple with surging prices of gas, food and other basic commodities because of the crisis in the Middle East. Since the start of the war, surveys have shown that large numbers of Americans did not approve of striking Iran. Now, about 65 percent of Americans say they “disapprove” of the way in which Trump has handled the Iran war overall, according to a Pew Research Center poll released on Thursday. Trump stated at the start of the war that it would go on for just a few weeks, however, it is now into its eighth month. According to Pew, most Americans now believe the war will continue for at least another year. Even Republican or more conservative-leaning voters are growing more negative about the war, its poll found. The conflict has also severely affected Trump’s personal ratings and eroded support for Republicans. A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Thursday found that only 30 percent of his supporters were enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, compared with 48 percent of Democratic voters. About 13 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2024 say they are not sure who to vote for in the congressional elections. Delaying attacks until after the elections could potentially shield Republican candidates from voter backlash, analysts say. While analysts say Trump will see a good performance at the polls as approval for renewed strikes, a Republican defeat at the polls could equally further incentivise him to hit Iran again as he will calculate that he has little to lose at that point. While that could further affect Trump’s ratings, the president is not eligible to run in the next presidential election in any case. Will the US restart the war after the midterms? In recent weeks, the US president has threatened to “end” the war with force after the elections as talks with Iran have dragged on. At a Republican convention in September, he accused Iran of trying to affect the outcome of the midterms and said that conflict “is going to end immediately after the elections”. In an interview with Time magazine two weeks ago, he also said it would be “possible” to ramp up bombing in Iran after the elections, but declined to elaborate. Analysts say his comments were designed to calm voters, while at the same time warning Iran of potential aggression after the vote. Last week, the US military dispatched about 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines aboard several ships now sailing to the Middle East amid threats of new attacks from Trump. The vessel formation included the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group. The deployment increases the number of US troops in the region to 20,000, alongside hundreds of aircraft and at least three carrier strike groups. In the past, US troop build-up in the Middle East and the Caribbean has subsequently resulted in military action. In June, Washington and Iran signed a ceasefire agreement that quickly broke down over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has repeatedly said that the US has the upper hand in the strait, citing more oil exports and Iran’s weakened economy. He has also voiced aversion to a deal with Tehran over management of Hormuz, but said he might consider it because “they’re willing to offer us anything to stop”. Washington rejected a recent proposal from Iran to reopen the strait based on certain conditions it wants the US to meet, including the lifting of sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets and guaranteeing an end to attacks. Last week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was considering a counterproposal from the US.