Trump's diesel dilemma — by the numbers

Diesel prices are surging as midterms approach – and they are likely to stay high in the near future, according to analysts. The International Energy Agency's monthly report for October, released Wednesday, was the latest to predict that constraints on the diesel market will likely keep prices elevated into next year. The group warned that even if refineries step up production of diesel into the year-end, inventories will likely remain strained until the second half of 2027. Last Friday, President Donald Trump unexpectedly paused sanctions on Russian diesel fuel and announced that he reached a deal with President Vladimir Putin in which the Kremlin would release 4.8 million metric tons of diesel, or nearly 36 million barrels, to the global market. Over the weekend, he took to Truth Social to announce an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later accused Russia of attacking the country's energy facilities. The foreign policy developments come as rising fuel prices — particularly skyrocketing diesel — have become a major flashpoint ahead of this year's midterm election. But releasing Russian diesel to the global market is unlikely to drop prices in the near term. A note from Goldman Sachs last week even predicted that diesel prices will remain high through 2027 as refineries struggle to meet demand. Here's what the numbers tell us so far: Wholesale diesel prices have more than doubled since the beginning of 2026 through the end of September as both the war in Iran and Russia's war in Ukraine have dramatically cut global supply. Trump has insisted that the war in Ukraine is to blame for high diesel prices. On July 8, Russia banned diesel exports after Ukraine struck its refineries. In the U.S., the price of a gallon of diesel rose nearly 40% between July 6 and Sept. 22. However, the price of diesel had already jumped after the Iran war started and was still 20% above its prewar level when Russia instituted its export ban, making that tightening of supply feel that much more acute. Indeed, both conflicts have created major ripple effects across global energy markets causing major swings, sometimes daily.