The preseason coaching guide: Who's on the hot seat, retirement watch, next up?

It's time for our annual preseason coaching hot seat primer. And one trend continues to stand out: Coaches have a shorter runway. Revenue sharing and NIL have dramatically increased the amount of talent in college basketball, but they have also dramatically decreased the level of patience with coaches. The emphasis on the transfer portal further means an expectation of quicker success, with donors wanting a return on bigger investments in the form of wins and NCAA tournament appearances. Just look at last year's cycle. Providence ousted Kim English after three years at the helm, while Syracuse did the same with alum Adrian Autry. Damon Stoudamire lasted the same amount of time at Georgia Tech. North Carolina and Hubert Davis parted ways just two years after Davis guided the Tar Heels to a 1-seed and ACC championship. Jerome Tang led Kansas State to the Elite Eight in his first season in 2023, but was let go in February of last season. In today's climate, a coach is only one bad year away from feeling the heat. The growing transactional nature of roster construction has also nudged more coaches toward the exit. Dana Altman is the latest to do so, announcing his decision less than a month before this season is set to tip. Bruce Pearl retired less than two months before the start of last season. Tony Bennett stepped down weeks ahead of the 2024-25 campaign. Greg McDermott, Jim Larrañaga, Leonard Hamilton, Thad Matta and Mark Schmidt also retired in the past two seasons. There's another category of potential coaching changes: the NBA route. The path from college to NBA sideline was dormant for several years, but Dusty May might have restarted the trend this offseason, when he went from Michigan to the Dallas Mavericks. He's part of a generation of coaches perceived to have the demeanor and tactical acumen to make the jump, a group that also includes Duke's Jon Scheyer, Alabama's Nate Oats, Florida's Todd Golden and Arizona's Tommy Lloyd, among others. The Mavericks pursued Scheyer before hiring May, and UConn's Dan Hurley was offered the Los Angeles Lakers job back in 2024. Could someone else make the move next spring? It's impossible to predict, six months out, whether a coaching carousel is going to be busy or slow -- last year's led to 54 coaching changes. But between the hot seat, potential retirements and opportunities to jump to the next level, there undoubtedly will be movement. This primer is broken down by major conference, followed by names to watch around Division I. Jump to: ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | SEC | Other notables | Who's up next? ACC Hot seat watch There were varying levels of speculation regarding the job status of Pitt's Jeff Capel, Notre Dame's Micah Shrewsberry and Wake Forest's Steve Forbes last season. In reality, Shrewsberry and Forbes weren't in real danger of losing their jobs, despite down seasons, while Pitt's poor season necessitated an announcement from athletic director Allen Greene that Capel would return for a ninth season -- which generally isn't a great sign moving forward. Entering this season, all three need a strong campaign. Capel has reached the NCAA tournament just once in the course of eight up-and-down seasons with the Panthers. After four struggle-filled campaigns to open his tenure, Pitt won 24 games in 2022-23 and 22 games the following season, gaining some momentum. But the Panthers took a step back in 2024-25 and then finished 13-20 overall last season, going 5-13 in ACC play. Capel signed a contract extension in 2024 through the 2029-30 season, and the school would still owe him around $10 million if it moved on after this season. The Irish have shown promise during Shrewsberry's tenure in South Bend but bottomed out last season, failing to qualify for the ACC tournament after finishing 4-14 in the league and 13-18 overall. Shrewsberry is now just 41-56 overall in three seasons, with a 20-39 ACC record. His top three scorers transferred out in the spring, so a pivotal year will feature plenty of new faces. Shrewsberry's contract runs through the 2029-30 season. Forbes is 110-82 overall in his six seasons in Winston-Salem, with no NCAA tournament appearances in that time, hovering around the bubble pretty much every year from 2022-25. Wake Forest struggled during the middle third of last season, dropping 9 of 11 games en route to an 18-17 overall finish. The Demon Deacons lost nearly every player in the spring, and didn't have the resources to go into the portal and upgrade on the departures. Retirement watch Virginia Tech's Mike Young, 63, signed a one-year contract extension over the summer, or he would have been entering the final year of his deal. The Hokies haven't gone dancing since 2022, the second of back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances under Young. They've won exactly 19 games in three of the past four seasons, but haven't finished above .500 in the ACC since that 2022 tournament trip. The Hokies do bring back their top two scorers, however, which could prompt a bounce-back season. BIG EAST Worth monitoring Following three coaching changes this offseason, there shouldn't be much drama in the Big East next spring. The only coach facing any real pressure is Georgetown's Ed Cooley, who is entering Year 4 with the Hoyas without an NCAA tournament appearance or a Big East finish above .500. When Georgetown hired Cooley away from Providence, he was coming off back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances and a Sweet 16 run in 2022. Needless to say, the expectations were much higher. If Vince Iwuchukwu and NJ Benson are eligible to play, Cooley does have the players to make a tournament push. It's also worth remembering he originally signed a long-term contract that reportedly pays him nearly $6 million a year, meaning there's likely a sizable chunk of money left on his deal after this season. BIG TEN Already spinning The carousel started spinning in the Big Ten last week, when longtime Oregon coach Dana Altman announced his retirement after 16 years at the helm. Assistant coach Tony Stubblefield will be the interim coach for the upcoming season, and the school says it will conduct a search for Altman's permanent replacement in the spring. Where the Ducks look will depend on which hot coaching candidates have good seasons, or which sitting high-major coaches are possibly looking to make a jump. Potential candidates: Saint Louis' Josh Schertz and New Mexico's Eric Olen will likely be at the top of the list, although a big season from Pacific Northwest-adjacent mid-major coaches such as Seattle's Chris Victor, Montana State's Matt Logie or Boise State's Leon Rice could make them intriguing. Could a proven power-conference head coach -- more in line with Altman, like TCU's Jamie Dixon, look to move? Hot seat watch Things have warmed up pretty quickly for Penn State's Mike Rhoades and Washington's Danny Sprinkle. Rhoades signed a huge seven-year contract when the Nittany Lions hired him in 2023, after a five-year stretch that saw him lead VCU to three NCAA tournaments. But Penn State hasn't sniffed the tournament since he arrived in State College, finishing last in the Big Ten a year ago with a 12-20 overall, 3-17 conference record. Athletic director Pat Kraft has made it clear that spending big bucks on a basketball roster is not a priority, saying "it's not a good investment," and Penn State faces an uphill battle to move up in the league. Rhoades still has around $11 million remaining on his deal after this season. Sprinkle didn't have the same funding issues for his second season at Washington, putting together a talented, high-priced roster. But it never quite came together, and the Huskies ultimately finished 16-17 overall, 7-13 in the Big Ten. After going to three straight NCAA tournaments with Montana State and Utah State before taking over in Seattle, Sprinkle is now 11-29 in the Big Ten. This year's roster is also a step down from the last group, at least on paper. This is only his third year in Seattle, though, and he will still have just north of $10 million left on his deal next spring. Worth monitoring Any time a power-conference coach projects to have just one year left on his contract at the end of the season, he lands on this list. That's the case with Michigan's Mike Boynton, who was promoted after Dusty May left in June to take the Mavericks job. Boynton signed a two-year contract; but less than two weeks after he agreed to the deal, athletic director Warde Manuel announced he was stepping down at the end of 2026. Boynton will still get the opportunity to prove himself as the next guy, since he's coming off a season as the defensive coordinator for the championship-winning Wolverines. He'll enter November armed with a top-25 roster and one of the best backcourts in the country. A strong finish last season and an NCAA tournament appearance eased the pressure on Ohio State's Jake Diebler. The Buckeyes should also be a borderline top-25 team this season, leaving him fairly comfortably entering the campaign. Retirement watch Michigan State's Tom Izzo has been included in this category for years, but he doesn't appear to be particularly close to shutting things down. Even as Izzo, 71, has opined endlessly about his issues with the current state of college basketball, he has adapted well, going to the Elite Eight in 2025 and Sweet 16 in 2026, winning 57 games in those two seasons. The Spartans are primed to compete for a Big Ten title and Final Four appearance this season. There was some offseason speculation about Northwestern's Chris Collins potentially calling it quits, but that never came to fruition. Collins, 52, has guided the Wildcats to three NCAA tournaments in 13 seasons -- three more NCAA tournaments than the rest of the coaches in program history combined. He also signed a contract extension in 2025 through the 2029-30 season. BIG 12 Retirement watch After Bobby Hurley, Wes Miller and Jerome Tang were all let go, and Johnny Dawkins reached the NCAA tournament and received a contract extension, there isn't much in the way of hot seats in the Big 12. There is certainly retirement speculation, however. Kansas' Bill Self is the headliner, and his future will be one of the biggest storylines in the sport. At the end of last season, Self -- who has dealt with multiple health-related issues over the past couple of years -- said he needed to discuss his coaching future with his family. About a week later, he released a statement saying he would return to the Jayhawks for another season. Could this be the last season for Self, who will be 64 in December? Houston's Kelvin Sampson turned 71 earlier this month, but the success he's having with the Cougars makes it difficult to call it a career. He's won at least 30 games in five straight seasons, earning a 1- or 2-seed in the NCAA tournament in five of the past six seasons -- advancing to at least the Sweet 16 in all six, including a pair of Final Four appearances. Sampson's son, Kellen, is an assistant coach on staff and has been designated as the head coach-in-waiting. There have been whispers surrounding Colorado's Tad Boyle in the past couple of seasons, but he's set to start his 17th year in charge of the Buffaloes. After winning at least 21 games in five of the program's final six seasons in the Pac-12 -- including a pair of NCAA tournament appearances -- Boyle and the Buffs have struggled in the Big 12, going 10-28 in league play over two seasons. SEC Hot seat watch It wasn't too long ago that South Carolina's Lamont Paris was one of the hottest coaches in the country, guiding the Gamecocks to a 26-8 record in 2023-24, a 15-win improvement from his debut season in Columbia that led to tying for second in the league. The school responded with a new six-year, $26 million contract for Paris through 2029-30. Since then, South Carolina is 25-39 overall and 6-30 in SEC play. Paris is squarely on the hot seat. The Gamecocks received an increased budget for this season's roster, but they will need to produce results. Paris would be owed around $8 million to $9 million if removed. Oklahoma's Porter Moser has been able to stave off danger the past two seasons with strong finishes, going to the NCAA tournament in 2024-25 and then winning six of seven games to end last season and falling just short of the dance. The Sooners have heard their name on Selection Sunday once in Moser's five seasons, though, and Oklahoma hired a new athletic director last January. Moser will only have one year remaining on his contract after this season, and the Sooners' NCAA tournament hopes could center around the fifth-year eligibility of Duke Brennan and B.J. Edwards. There was a point in the offseason when Mark Pope's grip on the Kentucky job seemed to be slipping, after he missed publicly on a few priority transfer targets. But he rebounded to put together a top-25 roster, with a high enough ceiling to reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. But coming off a 22-14 record and second-round exit -- after reportedly having the highest salary cap in the country -- undoubtedly puts pressure on him. Pope's one-year extension in 2025 means his contract runs through 2030. Retirement watch Tennessee's Rick Barnes turned 72 over the summer, but his offseason moves aren't indicative of someone ready to hang it up. The Volunteers had one of the best transfer portal hauls in college basketball, compiling a group filled with offensive firepower -- a stark contrast to the defense-first mentality of recent teams in Knoxville. Tennessee has won at least 25 games in each of the past five seasons, but Barnes is still looking for his first Final Four since 2003. Elsewhere around the sport Hot seat watch After taking Memphis to the NCAA tournament in three of four seasons and winning at least 20 games in each of his seven seasons with the Tigers, Penny Hardaway finished 13-19 overall, going just 8-10 in the American in 2025-26 -- his worst season and the program's worst since 1969-70. Consequently, he faced some questions as the campaign came to a close. The administration brought him back, but the decision required staff changes, including hiring three new assistant coaches and a general manager. Hardaway's status as a program legend and an icon in the city makes any potential change more difficult, but Memphis needs a good season. Retirement watch Two names that have cropped up over the past few years are Gonzaga's Mark Few and Dayton's Anthony Grant. Few was inducted into the Hall of Fame this year and holds the highest career winning percentage in Division I men's basketball history (minimum 600 games). Longtime assistant Brian Michaelson will be the replacement whenever Few, 63, opts to step down. Grant has won at least 22 games in each of the past five seasons, but has only gone to one NCAA tournament over that stretch. (It's worth noting the Flyers were on their way to a 1-seed in 2020 before the tournament was canceled.) Speculation ran rampant toward the end of last season, but Grant is back for a ninth campaign -- and also coached the men's U18 national team at the FIBA AmeriCup in Mexico this summer. Who's up next? Over the final few weeks of last season, a few mid-major coaches jumped up to the high-major level: Jerrod Calhoun, from Utah State to Cincinnati Casey Alexander, from Belmont to Kansas State Bryan Hodgson, from South Florida to Providence Scott Cross, from Troy to Georgia Tech Gerry McNamara, from Siena to Syracuse Randy Bennett, from Saint Mary's to Arizona State Two other veteran coaches also made moves: Chris Mack left Charleston for South Florida and John Groce departed Akron to replace Mack. One massive name didn't move, however -- and he's once again at the top of the mid-major jump list. Josh Schertz was the biggest mid-major name on the carousel at Indiana State in 2024, the biggest mid-major name on the carousel at Saint Louis last season -- and will likely be the crown jewel of the carousel again in 2027. He won 32 games with the Sycamores in 2024 and led the Billikens to 29 wins and a second-round NCAA tournament appearance last season, beating Georgia by 25 in the first round. This year, he has the Billikens poised to return to the dance. He's clearly not planning to jump at any high-major job, and can be selective about his next landing spot. There's a bit of a drop-off after Schertz, but there are several candidates in the next tier: New Mexico's Eric Olen won 30 games and went to the NCAA tournament at UC San Diego in 2025, then guided New Mexico to 26 wins in Year 1 in Albuquerque. If Olen can get the Lobos to the NCAA tournament, he'll be near the top of lists. Travis Steele and Miami (Ohio) completed a perfect 31-0 regular season, reaching the RedHawks' first NCAA tournament since 2007. Steele signed an extension through 2034 in May and is very content at Miami, but could the former Xavier coach get another chance at the high-major level? Furman's Bob Richey has won at least 22 games in seven of nine seasons, guiding the Paladins to a pair of NCAA tournaments, including a first-round upset of Virginia in 2023. VCU's Phil Martelli Jr. took Bryant and the Rams to the last two dances, with the latter beating North Carolina. High Point's Flynn Clayman won 31 games in his first season, and knocked off Wisconsin in the round of 64. UNC Wilmington's Takayo Siddle has been circling the high-major job market for a few years, winning at least 21 games in each of the last five seasons, including a pair of CAA regular-season championships and an NCAA tournament appearance in 2025. George Mason's Tony Skinn might have been ready for a jump midway through last season, before the Patriots cratered down the stretch and finished fifth in the Atlantic 10. That said, he won a share of the A-10 title in 2025 and has high-major experience as an assistant coach, even if he has yet to reach the NCAA tournament. Joe Gallo has now guided Merrimack to four regular-season titles in seven years at the Division I level, in two different conferences -- though fell short of the NCAA tournament last season. Hofstra's Speedy Claxton brings an NBA background and just took the Pride to the NCAA tournament last season, while also winning a regular-season title in 2023. There are a number of coaches on the way up: East Tennessee State's Brooks Savage led the Buccaneers to the SoCon regular-season title last season. McNeese's Bill Armstrong went 28-6 and brought the Cowboys to the NCAA tournament after replacing Will Wade. Stephen F. Austin's Matt Braeuer won the Southland regular-season title in his debut campaign. Tennessee State's Nolan Smith won the Ohio Valley and went to the NCAA tournament in his first season as a head coach. James Madison's Preston Spradlin won three straight league titles at Morehead State and JMU before last season. JMU is leaving the Sun Belt for the American in the next two years, however, meaning Spradlin will already be taking a step up if he sticks around. Wright State's Clint Sargent won the Horizon League regular-season and tournament titles in his second season at the helm. The aforementioned Chris Victor from Seattle won a WAC regular-season title in 2022 and has won at least 20 games in four of five seasons. On the other side, there are several proven veteran coaches who could land elsewhere next spring. If five-for-five decisions go a certain way, Bryce Drew might have the best mid-major team in the country at Grand Canyon this season. Drew's tenure at Vanderbilt ended with an 0-18 SEC campaign but he's brought the Antelopes to four NCAA tournaments in six seasons. Russell Turner has won eight Big West regular-season titles at UC Irvine. Yale's James Jones has won five of the last seven Ivy League titles. Colgate's Matt Langel went to five straight NCAA tournaments and five Patriot League titles in six years before a couple of "down" years (third- and second-place finishes). UAB's Andy Kennedy has won at least 20 games in six straight seasons, including two NCAA tournament appearances, and should compete for the American crown. UC Santa Barbara's Joe Pasternack has been to a pair of NCAA tournaments and is a proven recruiter at multiple levels. Bashir Mason won three regular-season conference championships while at Wagner, then went to the NCAA tournament in his second season with Saint Peter's. Robert Morris' Andy Toole also has three regular-season conference championships, including a sweep of the Horizon regular season and tournament titles in 2025. Former coaches returning? Among names that could be mentioned on the carousel next spring, the most obvious is Billy Donovan. He was linked to the North Carolina vacancy last spring and then stepped down as the Chicago Bulls coach in April. He joined the San Antonio Spurs staff in July, though rumors of Donovan returning to college won't quiet if any blue-blood jobs open. A more realistic name would be Kevin Keatts, who was fired by NC State after the 2024-25 season. He has a Final Four on his résumé -- with the 11-seeded Wolfpack in 2024 -- and five NCAA tournament appearances combined at UNC Wilmington and NC State.