Connelly breaks down a loaded Week 7: Notre Dame-BYU, Ohio State-Indiana and more

You probably know by now that I can talk myself into any Saturday slate. The sport is too rich, the backstories are too bountiful, and the crowds are too big -- there's always something interesting going on. Some weeks do require less convincing than others, however, and Week 7 is loaded. It's scheduled out almost perfectly, too. We start and finish Saturday with top-10 battles, and we get matching SEC top-15 games in between. The tough part of Notre Dame's schedule finally begins with a trip to Provo, we get a rematch of last year's epic Ohio State-Indiana Big Ten championship slugfest, the Third Saturday in October features wafts of desperation, and after stirring Week 6 wins, both Kentucky and UCLA face tricky hangover tests. The undercard is deep as well: We get a lovely set of rivalry games, and the smaller schools are also in on the act, with the vaunted Anchor-Bone Classic in Michigan (Ferris State-Grand Valley State) and another huge Division III game in Wisconsin. There are finally fall temperatures in the air, too! Week 7 could be awfully special. Here's everything you need to follow. The big rematch in Bloomington Ohio State and Indiana basically switched bodies in last season's Big Ten championship. The Buckeyes were the defending national champs and came to Indy having won 16 straight, but the Hoosiers prevailed, won the national title and now carry a 22-game winning streak into the rematch. No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana (noon, Fox) Some tight games are tight because a superior side makes mistakes or suffers some funky bounces and lets the other team hang around. (Hello, last week's Oklahoma-Texas game.) Sometimes they're tight because the teams are almost perfectly dead even. The 2025 Big Ten championship game was 100% the latter. This was the ultimate fine-margins game. All of the major battles -- efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, turnovers -- were either even or shaded slightly toward Ohio State. But Indiana won 16 of the game's 27 third and fourth downs (59%), including a key fourth-and-1 stuff and a nearly game-clinching Fernando Mendoza-to-Charlie Becker pass on third-and-6 after Ryan Day chickened out on another fourth-and-1 (and Ohio State missed the ensuing field goal). Indiana went 4-0 in one-score games last year in part because the Hoosiers won a ridiculous 76% of all third and fourth downs. They've continued winning close games this fall -- 29-23 over a rising Northwestern, 20-17 over a rising Nebraska -- and their defense remains ridiculously efficient (third in success rate). The offense isn't quite as consistent, though they've made up for it with big plays. But they've won only 59% of their third and fourth downs, and it was just 39% against Nebraska last week. The Hoosiers are still winning, but they'll need those fine margins again when Ohio State visits. It's the only way teams beat the Buckeyes -- since their last game of 2022, they've suffered eight losses by an average of 4.5 points and won 42 games by an average of 27.8. They're just 6-8 in games decided by 11 or fewer points. Ohio State has the best player in college football in receiver Jeremiah Smith, and while a rebuilt pass rush hasn't totally clicked, the Buckeyes' defense still ranks first in yards allowed per play. Indiana could find advantages in both defending a less-than-explosive Buckeyes run game and in getting Becker and Nick Marsh open if quarterback Josh Hoover has time to operate. Let's assume the trend holds and either Ohio State wins by 17 or loses by 3. Current line: OSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 0.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 0.7 Wisconsin at No. 12 UCLA (7:30 p.m., NBC) The Big Ten undercard gives us a UCLA-Wisconsin game that's infinitely more tantalizing than we could have guessed a few weeks ago. UCLA remains unbeaten following a stirring win at Oregon. The Bruins are ruthlessly physical: They rank fourth in yards per carry (excluding sacks) and sixth in yards allowed per carry, with edge defenders Sammy Omosigho and Sahir West proving equally dominant at stopping the run as rushing the passer. They overcame an injury to quarterback Nico Iamaleava last week, in part because the QB doesn't have to do much. Wisconsin's defense is the best the Bruins have faced. The Badgers are 12th in yards allowed per carry and eighth in yards allowed per dropback and could knock UCLA off schedule far more than preferred. Their running game is inconsistent and reliant on occasional bursts from Abu Sama III or quarterback Colton Joseph, but Joseph's quick passing provides decent efficiency, and Wisconsin is capable of winning a ball control-and-field position game. UCLA and new QB Ty Dieffenbach will have to play well to survive. Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 7.2 | FPI projection: UCLA by 2.6 A defining week in the Big 12 Notre Dame has beaten only one SP+ top-50 team this season, but Marcus Freeman's Fighting Irish head to Provo for BYU's biggest home game since either 2004 (when No. 1 USC rolled 42-10) or 1990 (when No. 1 Miami fell 28-21). Meanwhile, Houston and Oklahoma State will face off in what's basically a Big 12 elimination game. No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU (7:30 p.m., ABC) One thing we know about Kalani Sitake's BYU team: The Cougars will always test your fortitude and your willingness to play with maximum physicality for 60 minutes. You might beat them -- though, granted, only Texas Tech has done so in their last 21 games -- but it will hurt. It sometimes hurts BYU too. Running back LJ Martin, one of the team's meanest players (that's meant as a compliment), is out with injury, meaning the game will be mostly in quarterback Bear Bachmeier's hands. He's been as responsible as Martin for the Cougars' No. 1 ranking in rushing success rate, and he has gone from averaging 7.2 yards per dropback in 2025 to 8.7 this season. Transfer receiver Kyler Kasper and freshman Legend Glasker are dangerous and could stress a Notre Dame secondary that might not include star corner Leonard Moore. But a nearly perfect Irish run defense will test BYU's ability to avoid second- and third-and-longs. With freshman Jonaz Walton going for 301 rushing yards over the past two weeks and third-year receiver Micah Gilbert (19.9 yards per catch) emerging as a deep threat for CJ Carr, the Irish offense seems to be clicking into place. Notre Dame is averaging 44 points per game, though that's come against defenses with an average SP+ ranking of 74.2. BYU ranks ninth. I love this game. BYU will test Notre Dame's toughness and tell us whether recent Irish blowout wins are indicative of a truly elite team. (They frequently are despite "ain't played nobody!" objections.) Notre Dame, meanwhile, will tell us whether BYU has the requisite athleticism on the perimeter and whether Bachmeier's ceiling is as high as I'm starting to think. Current line: Irish -10.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 4.0 | FPI projection: Irish by 10.9 No. 18 Oklahoma State at No. 20 Houston (7:30 p.m., Fox) Oklahoma State has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 14.5 points per game since a season-opening face-plant against Tulsa; Houston has overachieved by 10.0 PPG in the same time frame. The Cowboys almost never go three-and-out, and 10.4% of their snaps gain 20-plus yards (fourth nationally). Meanwhile, the Cougars destroy teams with a million paper cuts: They're second in success rate (55.0%), and they've scored a touchdown in every goal-to-go situation this season. If this is a big-play competition, OSU wins it. Houston's biggest weakness has come in allowing a few too many big pass plays, and its offense is in the service academy range of this chart: If this is an efficiency and count-the-mistakes competition, however, Houston rolls. The Cougars are third nationally in points per drive despite the lack of big plays. Quarterback Conner Weigman is running a tight ship, and their strong run defense renders opponents one-dimensional. Current line: Houston -4.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 4.4 | FPI projection: Houston by 9.3 Four big ones in the SEC The SEC always overwhelms us with depth. The Third Saturday in October will either send Alabama reeling or finish off Tennessee's playoff hopes, the Mizzou-Ole Miss winner will have a top-10 résumé, LSU and Mississippi State will try to save their seasons, and Kentucky-Oklahoma features two teams with ambition and suddenly great vibes. No. 6 Alabama at No. 14 Tennessee (3:30 p.m., ABC) Tennessee has an excellent running game and an even better pass defense. Running backs DeSean Bishop and Daune Morris have combined for 1,010 rushing yards and 10 TDs, and the Volunteers rank second in yards allowed per dropback (4.3) and first in sack rate (11.5%). Two years ago, these traits drove a College Football Playoff run despite merely decent quarterback play. With decent quarterback play this season, Tennessee would be unbeaten. Alas. Freshman Faizon Brandon proved unready and far too sack prone, and George MacIntyre threw two picks in a closer-than-expected win over Arkansas last week. The Vols' defense could make life difficult for Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell, who took four sacks against Georgia last week. Russell is a big-play hunter, to his credit and detriment, and those tendencies have paired well with an efficient but not particularly explosive run game. The Crimson Tide still nearly beat Georgia despite Russell's mistakes, but he'll probably be without his most explosive target, the injured Ryan Coleman-Williams. Tennessee could suck Bama into a bit of a defense-and-field-position game, but at some point the Vols' quarterback will need to make a big throw. We don't really have evidence that that will happen. Current line: Bama -7.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 3.8 | FPI projection: Bama by 7.7 No. 13 Missouri at No. 9 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., SECN) After a much-needed bye week, Ole Miss pummeled Vanderbilt 52-17 last Saturday. Missouri, meanwhile, could use a bye with its injury list adding up, but you couldn't blame Eli Drinkwitz if he's conflicted about that: His Tigers have overachieved against SP+ projections by 41.6 points in blowouts of Florida (who beat Ole Miss) and Texas A&M. As far as the CFP hunt goes, this is a must-win for both teams. And you can see advantages in both directions. For starters, Ole Miss still has Trinidad Chambliss. Star running back Kewan Lacy is working back from injury, but the Rebels' offense will be efficient as long as Chambliss is behind center. The Tigers, however, could control the ball with smoking-hot running back Jamal Roberts and a sharp passing game. The Rebels' defense ranks 109th in points allowed per drive and 111th in success rate allowed. There's a fun theme with this one: former teammates. Mizzou quarterback Austin Simmons and his No. 1 receiver, Cayden Lee, were both Ole Miss Rebels last season, while Lacy spent his freshman year at Mizzou before heading to Oxford. Current line: Rebels -5.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 0.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 2.9 No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 LSU (noon, ESPN) Two weeks ago, Kamario Taylor and Mississippi State were 4-0 and the talk of college football, but a Taylor foot injury and a blowout loss to Alabama dampened the hype. Six weeks ago, LSU began the season with a pounding of Clemson and looked ready to contend, but losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky took away all margin for error. LSU's only real statistical weakness is its quarterback's propensity for turnovers. Sam Leavitt has thrown eight interceptions and lost one fumble, and that's undone a lot of the good things that Leavitt, RB Dilin Jones and WRs Winston Watkins Jr. and Jackson Harris have created. The defense is as aggressive as ever, ranking third nationally in both three-and-out rate (50.6%) and sack rate (11.0%). They would make life difficult for a 100% healthy Taylor, but we're not even sure if Taylor or star RB Fluff Bothwell will play. LSU will likely win, but if Taylor can go, and if the MSU defense can take advantage of Leavitt's mistakes, the Bulldogs are dangerous enough to take this. Current line: LSU -14.5 (up from -10.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: LSU by 11.6 | FPI projection: LSU by 10.2 No. 15 Kentucky at Oklahoma (7:30 p.m., SECN) Kentucky has won three SEC games by a combined 12 points and lost one by 28. SP+ isn't a Wildcats believer: They're 47th overall thanks to an inefficient defense and dreadful third-down conversion rates (they're 133rd on offense, 128th on defense). Still, they're tough as hell, and they're about to play a team that rode close SEC wins to a CFP berth in 2025. Two early losses put OU's CFP hopes at death's door, but the Sooners' defense remains elite, and Oklahoma should keep Kentucky's scoring opportunities to a minimum. Can the offense generate consistency? Lloyd Avant rushed for 72 yards against Texas, and John Mateer made big throws late, but OU still gained only 238 yards on the day. Who wins a potential rock fight -- a home team that won all of its close games last year or a road team with all the 2026 magic? Current line: OU -6.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 6.8 | FPI projection: OU by 6.4 A mini-rivalry week We celebrate all the rivalry games we can, even if some of them are a little sadder than usual, and this week gives us quite a few of them. Florida State at No. 3 Miami (7 p.m., ESPN) Florida State's biggest problem during most of the Mike Norvell era has been that negativity almost always creates more negativity, and there's almost always a second straight loss (at least). It looked like the Seminoles were building momentum last week -- after pummeling Virginia, they quickly raced to a 14-0 lead at Louisville. But while driving to make it a three-score advantage, they were stopped on fourth-and-goal; Louisville then scored a 97-yard touchdown on the next play and finished the game on a 44-6 run. Now, most likely, comes a second straight loss. Miami's schedule has been even lighter than Notre Dame's, but the Hurricanes rank first nationally in both points per drive (4.1) and points allowed per drive (0.7). Other than maybe playing a bit soft in pass coverage -- they're 64th in completion rate allowed and 74th in third-and-7+ conversion rate allowed -- they haven't hinted at weaknesses. Storms could make things sloppy, but let's assume the Canes roll. Current line: Miami -21.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 24.5 | FPI projection: Miami by 23.7 Penn State at Michigan (3:30 p.m., CBS) This isn't an historic rivalry -- these two didn't first play until 1993 -- but it's a hell of a helmet game, and it's usually meaningful in terms of the Big Ten hierarchy. This season, not so much. The Wolverines and Nittany Lions are a combined 0-5 in conference play and are finding out that not every new hire turns out to be a Curt Cignetti. (Or a Bob Chesney, who it sure seems PSU passed on in last winter's coaching search.) One of these schools will be in an absolute tailspin come Saturday evening. Michigan is favored and has both the best (their defense) and worst units (their offense) in this game; PSU has been generally mediocre in both categories but might be able to keep the Wolverines' point total in the teens. Current line: Michigan -6.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 6.0 | FPI projection: Michigan by 1.8 Baylor's 17-16 loss to Auburn in Week 1 threw us off the scent, but it turned out to be proof that the BU defense was on its way to a great season -- the Bears are eighth nationally in points allowed per drive. Meanwhile, DJ Lagway and the offense hung 55 points on Arizona State in their last game. TCU's defense has been surprisingly strong, too, but the Horned Frogs are still waiting for the offense to click -- they've scored 33 total points against three power-conference defenses. In the last 15 years, this rivalry has produced scores like 61-58 and 50-49. This game almost certainly won't be that. Current line: Baylor -6 | SP+ projection: Baylor by 6.0 | FPI projection: Baylor by 6.8 North Carolina at Duke (3:30 p.m., ESPN2) Bill Belichick and North Carolina are putting together a rickety but improving campaign after last week's upset of short-handed Pitt. Duke, meanwhile, watched its unbeaten record disappear with a poor performance at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets slowed down star Nate Sheppard and the Duke run game and avoided negative plays on offense, and that's almost exactly the recipe UNC will try to follow. The winner technically will still be involved in the ACC title hunt, and a Duke win would be the Blue Devils' third straight in the series. Current line: Duke -3 | SP+ projection: Duke by 5.8 | FPI projection: Duke by 1.3 Kansas at Kansas State (noon, FS1) In 2008, Kansas won its third straight Sunflower Showdown with a 52-21 win over Ron Prince's Kansas State. The Wildcats, however, have won the last 17 meetings, 11 by at least 20 points. Four KU coaches came and went without a win over the Wildcats, and Lance Leipold is 0-5. K-State's season has imploded of late, with back-to-back losses. Kansas, meanwhile, has played mostly strong defense in 2026, and the Jayhawks' offense is trending well. Maybe that matters, or maybe, as is customary, K-State uses this as a get-right game. Current line: K-State -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: K-State by 6.3 | FPI projection: K-State by 4.0 Week 7 chaos superfecta We're once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We're on a damn roll -- we took another two favorites down last week, meaning we're 5-for-6 for the season. Hell yeah! Time to make it 6-for-7! Despite double-digit spreads, SP+ says there's only a 39% chance that Notre Dame (-10.5 at BYU), Texas (-10.5 vs. Florida), James Madison (-12.5 vs. Georgia State) and Oregon State (-18.5 vs. Wazzu) all win. It's time to force some more upsets. Week 7 playlist Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. Friday evening Washington at Purdue (8 p.m., Fox). Before the season, SP+ would have projected this as a 15.5-point UW win. Times have changed. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. has joined Washington's endless injury list, and the Huskies have lost three straight. Purdue, meanwhile, has won two straight; Barry Odom's Boilermakers are suddenly pairing solid defense with an already strong offense. Current line: Purdue -3.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 3.0 | FPI projection: Purdue by 3.5 Memphis at Tulane (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Since losing to Boise State, Memphis has won three games by an average of 33.3 points. A win over Tulane would keep the Tigers atop the American Conference hierarchy. The Green Wave are explosive but dreadfully inefficient on offense, and they'll have to play far more consistent ball to keep up with running back Jaylin Carter and a fantastic Memphis attack. Current line: Memphis -7 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 12.6 | FPI projection: Memphis by 5.8 Early Saturday Florida at No. 7 Texas (noon, ABC). Two weeks ago, these teams were No. 8 and No. 1, respectively. Florida has been blown out twice in a row, and Texas' flagging offense cost it a rivalry game against Oklahoma. Florida's offense is still dangerous even with quarterback Aaron Philo listed as questionable, but an atrocious Gators defense might be just what the doctor ordered for getting Arch Manning & Co. back on track. Current line: Texas -10.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 15.9 | FPI projection: Texas by 16.6 Virginia at No. 24 SMU (noon, The CW). SMU's bye week came at the right time -- the Mustangs had underachieved against projections in three straight games. The defense was giving up too many big plays, and the run game was disappearing. Will a little rest help the Mustangs stay in the ACC title hunt? Will their struggles matter against a Virginia team that's also trending downward? Current line: SMU -8.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 6.8 | FPI projection: SMU by 6.7 No. 25 Northwestern at Michigan State (noon, Peacock). Michigan State was on its way to a fourth straight blowout loss against Illinois, then charged all the way back and nearly won. Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic and the Spartans will need two great halves to keep up with a Northwestern offense that is breaking out old formations, getting efficient passing from Aidan Chiles and enjoying itself immensely. Current line: NU -7.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 14.3 | FPI projection: NU by 11.2 Florida Atlantic at Army (noon, CBSSN). The Styles Make Fights matchup of the week. FAU, with its ridiculously up-tempo and pass-happy attack, has won four straight and is heavily involved in the American Conference race. Army, meanwhile, is Army: ridiculously efficient and ridiculously methodical. Neither team defends particularly well, so we might see a lot of successful seven-minute Army drives and two-minute FAU drives. Current line: Army -2.5 | SP+ projection: Army by 1.5 | FPI projection: Army by 6.7 Georgia State at James Madison (noon, ESPNU). Georgia State has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 24.7 points! The 4-1 Panthers have lost only to UCF and are top-40 in both points scored and points allowed per drive. James Madison will tell us if they're good enough to contend in the Sun Belt: The Dukes have won 12 straight in their soon-to-be former conference. Current line: JMU -12.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 16.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 10.2 Saturday afternoon Auburn at No. 1 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Auburn has a dynamite pair of linebackers in Elijah Melendez and Xavier Atkins, a solid pass rush and a fun run game driven by quarterback Byrum Brown and backs Jeremiah Cobb and Omar Mabson II. Maybe that's enough to keep up with Georgia for a little while, but the passing game is a disaster, and, well, Georgia might be the best team in the country. Current line: UGA -20.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 19.8 | FPI projection: UGA by 19.0 Arizona State at No. 10 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). Arizona State was the last Big 12 team to beat Texas Tech, and the Sun Devils have a defense that either completely works (12 PPG allowed in wins) or completely doesn't (51.5 in losses). We're still looking for signs that the Red Raiders have an offense worthy of another conference title run, and this aggressive-to-a-fault Sun Devils defense might give us some answers. Current line: Tech -14.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 20.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 23.7 UNLV at Air Force (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). UNLV has won three straight, and while the offense is still addicted to negative plays, the Rebels could ride random big plays and strong pass defense to a Mountain West title. But Air Force has remembered how to defend this season, and in his first game succeeding injured quarterback Liam Szarka, Evan Medders powered a 439-yard rushing performance. Current line: UNLV -1.5 | SP+ projection: Air Force by 4.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 0.5 Toledo at Eastern Michigan (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). EMU is 3-0 in conference play and has allowed just 16.8 points per game against G6 and FCS competition. The Eagles will face a Toledo team that looked like the class of the MAC before a 23-8 face-plant against Buffalo last week. The Rockets suddenly couldn't run or pass, and they could lose another one if they don't figure out what the hell just happened. Current line: Toledo -6.5 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 6.7 | FPI projection: Toledo by 9.6 Saturday evening Washington State at Oregon State (6 p.m., USA). OSU and Wazzu began the season 89th and 86th, respectively, in SP+. Now they're 51st and 111th. OSU might be the country's most watchable team, with Braden Atkinson on pace for nearly 5,000 passing yards and freshman Jesse Legree on pace for 2,000 receiving yards. The Beavers' defense isn't great, but it probably won't need to be -- Wazzu is averaging 12.6 PPG against FBS defenses. Current line: OSU -18.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 20.7 | FPI projection: OSU by 18.2 Navy at UTSA (8 p.m., ESPNU). This is the first-ever meeting between these conference mates, and it features two very different but potent run games. Backup quarterback Jackson Gutierrez and Navy saved their season with a comeback win over Tulsa last week, but UTSA has won 17 of 19 at the Alamodome and gets brilliant production out of a running back trio led by Will Henderson III. Current line: UTSA -6.5 | SP+ projection: UTSA by 3.4 | FPI projection: UTSA by 9.1 Louisiana Tech at Louisiana-Monroe (8 p.m., ESPN+). Now that Louisiana, Louisiana Tech and ULM are conference mates, we need some sort of trophy for them to play for. Brown Pelican Trophy? Jambalaya Bowl? I'm seeking suggestions. After last week's comeback against Louisiana, Tech would clinch said trophy this week barring an upset. ULM quarterback Aidan Armenta can wing the ball around, but Tech likely has too many offensive advantages. Current line: Tech -15.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 20.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 17.8 Late Saturday Nebraska at Oregon (11 p.m., Fox). Oregon's offensive line looked like it was rounding into form before UCLA obliterated it last Saturday. Now the Ducks face a Nebraska team that just dominated Indiana's O-line. The Ducks' defense is in good form, and third-string QB Brock Thomas made things pretty scary for UCLA when he subbed in for (Nebraska transfer) Dylan Raiola. But if Jahsear Whittington and the NU D-line bring their A-game again, the Huskers could pull an upset. Current line: Oregon -7 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 6.6 | FPI projection: Oregon by 5.6 No. 21 Wake Forest at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN2). Backup QB Jackson Brousseau and a strong defensive performance drove a Cal upset of Virginia Tech last week. Will the same recipe work against a smoking hot Wake Forest that has jumped from 63rd to 35th in SP+ in three weeks? Survive this West Coast trip with a fourth straight win, and the Demon Deacons might be the No. 2 favorites in the ACC. Current line: Wake -9.5 | SP+ projection: Wake by 10.5 | FPI projection: Wake by 11.7 New Mexico at Hawai'i (10:30 p.m., FS1). Despite North Dakota State's loss to UNLV last week, I'm keeping hope alive for a Week 8 "College GameDay" trip to Albuquerque. Jason Eck's Lobos must first survive a trip to the islands, but that's been easier than expected this year. Hawai'i is the only team to have underachieved against SP+ projections in every game, while UNM is one of six to have overachieved every time. Current line: Lobos -14.5 | SP+ projection: Lobos by 22.7 | FPI projection: Lobos by 18.5 No. 11 Utah at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN). Utah has scored more than 30 in every game and might have the most fun offense this side of Oregon State's. Colorado has a legit defensive front and could make some stops, but the Buffaloes have yet to score more than 14 points against an FBS opponent, and Utah ranks 13th in defensive SP+. Current line: Utah -15.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 23.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 16.7 Smaller-school showcase Let's once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track. Division II: No. 16 Findlay at Hillsdale (noon, FloCollege). Forty-one years ago, Hillsdale and Central Arkansas tied in the NAIA national title game, so both got to become champs. Ten years later, Findlay and Central Washington did the same thing. It's like when you get to the end of an episode of "Great British Baking Show," and they decide not to eliminate anyone. As Paul Hollywood might say, both of these teams play rough and ready defense (though their offenses can get a bit stodgy), and with both teams having lost to unbeaten Northwood, this might end up being a Division II playoff eliminator. SP+ projection: Hillsdale by 1.5. Division III: No. 3 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 8 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., local streaming). Another week, another top-10 game in the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference. Defending national champion River Falls barely avoided a second straight loss last week against Oshkosh, and now comes a visit from a Platteville team averaging 41.8 points per game. The WIAC is relentless. SP+ projection: Platteville by 4.3. Division II: No. 1 Ferris State at No. 13 Grand Valley State (3 p.m., FloCollege). IT'S ANCHOR-BONE CLASSIC TIME! We'll say that GVSU got caught in a look-ahead situation last week, losing in overtime at Michigan Tech, but the Lakers have been otherwise impeccable. It takes near-perfection to beat Ferris State, though -- the Bulldogs have won 36 straight and have outscored their last three opponents by a combined 170-6. SP+ projection: Ferris by 5.8.